Comparing two of the six IPCC scenarios - Assignment Example

COMPARING TWO OF THE SIX IPCC SCENARIOS Historically, the human population has obtained a lot of support through the steady rise ofquality exosomatic energy. Currently, all operations are heavily dependent on very large amount of different energy forms. Should the availability of this energy decline, the population will witness a catastrophic ordeal. With respect to balanced energy, the model known as World Energy and population model speculates that the population is likely to decrease significantly by 2100 due to the decrease in energy reserves.
On balanced energy, the current energy mix consists of oil at 37%, natural gas at 27%, nuclear energy at 7%, hydro at 5% and renewable energy at 1%. With this regards it evident that the number one energy type, oil is declining at a faster rate. For example, The United States oil reserves have been declining since the year 1971. The demand for oil in most of the countries is increasing and most of the oil producing countries has already depleted their oil fields. Gas which is also produced in similar circumstance as oil is also limited. By the year 2100, most of the natural gas should have been depleted (Chefruka, 2009). Nuclear energy seems to one of the energy types that will not be fully depleted by 2100. The more nuclear power plant will be formed the more power people will be able to obtain. Since most of the energy forms would have been depleted by 2100, renewable energy will become the most used for of energy. By 2100, most of the population will be forced to use the renewable forms of energy like solar panels and wind power (Nakicenovic, 2001).
The decline of human population by 2100 can be closely associated with the reduction of energy. It is correct to assume that the decline in the world energy supply will have profound effect on the population. If we carefully analyze this, we will find out that human being requires a significant amount on energy to sustain their quality of life. So, if this energy supply decline per capita, the quality of life will be affected. Based on the theory of demand and supply, when the energy sources become scarce, there price of oil will go high. The price of this commodity will force the populace to redirect money for other expenses to obtain this precious commodity. Their consumption will hit rock bottom and this will be disastrous. Statistics shows that over 5 billion out of 7 billion occupants live in countries where the energy per capita is under 1.5 toe per year (Nakicenovic, 2001). As the energy reserves continue to decline, these counties stand a high risk of mortality thereby reducing the pollution by 2100(Chefruke, 2009). During this time, the population and energy market place will fall below minimum energy level that is required to sustain life. The population model gives a clear picture of what to expect in 2100. If analyzed on a long term perspective, it is evident that the imbalance of energy will force the countries that have less energy to invade or go to war with those countries that have it. Statistics shows that the population will rise to 7.8 million by 2030 but will decrease to 1.8 million by 2100 due to the decline in energy supply.
References
Nakicenovic, N. et al.IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/index.htm
Chefruka James: Earth 2100: The Final Century of Civilization?
http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/earth-2100-final-century-of-civilization/ Read More