Will China Become a Superpower in the Future - Essay Example

Will China Become a Superpower in the Future? Introduction The Peoples Republic of China, called China in day to day parlance, has become synonymous with the term ‘emerging superpower.’ Whenever the world talks about China, reference is made to the country’s future global prowess. A recent Pew Research Centre poll reveals that 44 percent of Americans believe China to be a top global economic power (Wang 2010). That is the near unanimous perception across the world, and to be candid, it is not without reason. There is no doubt in the fact that China has done much and has become a force to reckon with on the world stage. Riding high on near-double digit economic growth for the last more than three decades, China has turned from a closed, impecunious economy into a self-assured and flourishing global trading partner. China’s performance on various parameters strengthens the belief that the country indeed has the potential to become a superpower. China is the second biggest economy of the world, next only to the United States. A gross domestic product of $4.4 trillion in 2008 coupled with total foreign trade of $2.6 trillion in the same year take the ‘emerging’ superpower’ belief to some sort of conviction (Pei 2010). China, also known as the Middle Kingdom, apparently has all the necessary requisites of becoming a superpower; a gigantic industrial base, a nuclear-armed military, geographically humungous territory, a burgeoning middle class, a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council and of course, home to 20 percent of the global population. The Doubt about China’s Future China’s success not withstanding, a million dollar question looms large. Will China be able to tread the distance and be able to shed the ‘emerging superpower’ tag and actually become a ‘superpower’? At this juncture it is important to understand what exactly a superpower is. In his bestselling book ‘The Post-American World’, Fareed Zakaria; the illustrious Washington Post and CNN host and columnist, defined a superpower to be a country that achieves domination in ideas or ideology, economic system and military power (Wang 2010). When one looks at the health of the Chinese economy in light of this definition, one can safely say that questions and doubts about China catapulting into an actual superpower creep in. Amid all this euphoria and hype surrounding the most populous country of the world, there are certain internal issues that China has to deal with. These issues are likely to act as stumbling blocks in the China’s road to becoming a superpower. Henry Kissinger, former U.S. secretary of state, in his first public debate in Toronto, Canada, admitted that China has gained a lot of influence in the world economy. However, Mr Kissinger emphatically pointed out that that China will be far too preoccupied wrestling with its domestic issues that it will not attain the status of a superpower (Wall Street Journal 2011). Mr Kissinger’s opinion should be given due importance given the fact that he was instrumental in forging of diplomatic relations between the U.S. and China in the 1970s. In that capacity, he has lot of insights about the ground realities in China. China has a lower per capita income than Iran, Mexico and Kazakhstan and tops the charts when it comes to environmental degradation. The jails in the country are inundated with rebels who want a real change in the country. Corruption is all pervasive in the country and there is scant respect for human rights (Hill 2010). Do all these condition point to a superpower in the making? No prizes for stating ‘no’ as the answer. If one was to mince no words, one would say that problems galore in the country and they are of the magnitude that China will not succeed the United States as the next superpower. Discussion that ensues substantiates this claim. My stance that China will not become a superpower is based on the analysis and understanding of China’s economic, social, political environment and military factors. Economic Factors Gross Domestic Product (GDP) One and all look with awe at the nearly double-digit growth that China has sustained since 1979. It does not need a statistician to understand that China started from a very low level of GDP and hence the stupendous growth rates in GDP were possible. Even then China’s per capita GDP in 2009 was approximately $3,600 vis-à-vis the per capita GDP of $46,000 in the United States. A look at the other developed nations of the world renders China as “an economic mini-me”. The latest IMF figures reveal that Europe’s (EU 27 plus Norway, Switzerland and Iceland) GDP is $17.5 trillion, while that of the United States is $14.8 trillion. In comparison, China’s GDP of $5.4 trillion is miles away from taking it to the superpower status (Hill 2010). It is not only China that has registered impressive growth rates. All BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) have caught the fancy of the world due to their imposing GDP growth rates. China’s march to becoming the world’s largest economy is likely be stifled as the other BRIC countries would also continue to increase their share in the global markets. Real Estate Bubble China is sitting on a time bomb named real estate. Investment guru James Chanos is of the considered opinion that China is beset with a threateningly growing real estate bubble. Chanos avers that more than half of the GDP growth is coming from “alarming levels of overbuilding” and terms this investment in construction as “treadmill to hell”. The day China slows down its construction activity, its growth rates would plunge (Hill 2010). Environmental degradation If there is one parameter where China would beat all the countries of the world hands down, it is probably the rate of environmental degradation. Such is the state of affairs that that during the run-up to the 2008 Olympics in Beijing the government had to enforce an odd-even auto policy to keep the air relatively clean. The policy entailed that cars with registration plates ending in an odd number could drive on one day while the even number ending registration plates could drive only the next (Hill 2010). For the last 30 years China has neglected its environment and has hankered after economic growth. The consequences of this environmental desertion are catastrophic (Pei 2010). Respiratory diseases caused due to alarmingly high levels of pollution account for approximately 400,000 deaths every year. Close to 50 billion Chinese living in rural areas do not have access to clean and safe drinking water. Acid rain, caused due to high levels of sulphur dioxide in the atmosphere, is widespread in the country. In 2008 about 53 percent of the rainfall in Guangdong province, China’s most affluent and industrialized region was acid rain (Hill 2010). There have been umpteen cases in the country where industrial toxins were found in milk powder, pet food and cough syrup resulting in food scares. Reports of Chinese exported toys containing lead paint and Chinese paints bearing toxic sulphur compounds have also hit the news headlines. The cumulative costs of pollution are in the region of 8 percent of the GDP. This model of Chinese business which does not pay any heed to pollution is simply not sustainable (Pei 2010). Trade policy China has, thus far, relied heavily on export-led growth model and has benefited deeply from it. It is noteworthy to mention that more than 60 percent of China’s overall exports are made by non-Chinese, foreign companies (Hill 2010). The overall future viability of China’s exports is in doubt given the increasing protectionist resistance in its major export markets; the United States and Europe. China is also being accused of keeping its currency under-valued, which in turn, keeps the exports competitive. Such a policy is being blamed for threatening the economies of its trading partners. Unless these policies change quickly, the possibility of a global backlash cannot be ruled out which will jeopardize the entire export model of the country (Pei 2010). Social Factors Ideology China is ideologically bankrupt (Pei 2010). Confucianism, the Chinese ethical and philosophical system developed from the teachings of the Chinese philosopher Confucius, and many other Chinese traditions were destroyed during the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution, commonly known as the Cultural Revolution in the country. The Great Leap Forward initiated by Mao Zedong who returned to power after the Cultural Revolution was also a failure (Kai-Alexander 2000). Communism has proved to be ruinous for the country and no one in the country has faith in it anymore (Wang 2010). In the present day China, there has been serious moral decay, the citizens are cynical about the notion of ideals and money is king for all practical purposes (Wang 2010). Compare this to the United States which even today stands for, and is admired for its ideals of liberty and democracy. While the United States, the existing and the only superpower in the world, has an unambiguous message for the world, the Chinese do not even have a vision for themselves. Even today, many Chinese citizens admire the “American way of life” (Wang 2010). In such a scenario, it is highly unlikely that the Chinese will be able to influence the world. Education System The education system in China, one of the most vital functions of any society, leaves much to be desired about (Wang 2010). Education is not free at any level. In fact university level education is so expensive that it is beyond the reach of many students (Hill 2010). This does not bode well for the future of the country. Corruption Corruption has spread like an epidemic in China. Noted economist Hu Angang avers that this all pervasive corruption costs China an estimated economic loss of roughly 15 percent of GDP on an annual basis (Hill 2010). Employment Migrants constitute a quarter of the working population in the country. These people work under pitiable working conditions and are measly paid. Recent strikes at Apple and Honda factories point to the growing discontentment amongst Chinese workers for whom life remains a grim struggle as they barely manage to make both ends meet. On average, there are 70,000 protests in China every year. Most of these protests are quite violent and end up in riots. The country reportedly witnessed nearly 300,000 labour disputes in 2006 alone, twice the number of disputes reported in 2001 (Hill 2010). Suicide Rates 90 percent of the elderly have no retirement pension in China. A dearth of nursing home services in the country is making healthcare all the more expensive. As such, a growing number of the aged population choose to end their life rather than becoming a burden on the kith and kin. It is for this reason that the suicide rate among the elderly is four to five times higher than the world average (Hill 2010). Aging Population China, as a society, is ageing. This demographic trend is primarily because of the government’s stringent one-child policy. The general ageing of the population entails that in future, the number of dependents will be more than the number of earning hands in the country. As per the 2010 census, the proportion of people in China aged 60 and above is 13 percent, up from 10 percent in 2000 (Huang 2011). This proportion is expected to touch 17 percent by 2020 (Pei 2010). While this ageing population is likely to hamper production volumes, it is also likely to increase healthcare costs and reduce individual savings and investments. The combined adverse effects of this parameter on economic growth would be substantial in the times to come and would prove to be a setback for China. Political Factors Political Instability The lack of political integration in the home country will make it very difficult for China to exercise power in other countries. The ruling political party has hung on to power by delivering good economic performance as well as by suppressing the challengers to its supremacy and authority (Restall 2007). The one-party regime in china has exacerbated corruption in the political circles as well. The factions within the Chinese ruling party are palpable with the Shanghai faction and the Youth Communist League faction fighting it out for power. Factionalism is prevalent in China’s civil-military relationship as well as the People Liberation Army’s organisational culture (Pai 2011). A continued decay in the political system would increase the chances of a government change, leading to disruption in the overall functioning of the country (Pei 2010). In such a scenario exerting influence over the world politics is a far cry for China. Vision to Use Power Countries do not become superpowers just because they have attained hard power. This power must be backed by a vision that has a universal appeal (Pei 2010). This represents the biggest future political challenge for China; to find political principles and standards that guide the use of its power. Diplomatic Relations It would take some time to answer the question; who is China’s ally? While one hunts for the answer, I would subscribe to Singaporean scholar Simon Tay’s comment, “no one in Asia wants to live in a Chinese-dominated world. There is no Chinese dream to which people aspire” (Wang 2010). Due to its flawed diplomatic policies, China no longer enjoys the encouraging external environment that it used to in the last three decades. Rules and Regulations If there is one place in the country which is not driven by rules and regulations and decisions are made as per the whims and fancies of people in authority, it is China. The ‘Workshop of the World’, as is China sometimes referred to as, is not yet a country of the rule of law (Wang 2010). The Chinese government still, without rhyme or reason, detains dissidents. The country still censors the Internet operations. Ask Google if you doubt this statement. Authoritarian Secrecy Given the quantum of sleaze and authoritarian secrecy in China, the accuracy of China’s numbers and official reports should be questioned. James Chanos has explicitly said, “China is cooking its books” (Hill 2010). What else explains the data that while sale of cars has risen by a 20 percent per month, auto fuel usage has risen by only 3-5 percent per month (Hill 2010). Geopolitical Factors The geopolitical factors are loaded against China and would thwart its ascendancy to the top. China has to contend and compete with strong regional rivals like India, Japan, and Russia. A regional geopolitical realignment has already started to rein in China’s reach and ambitions. Both United States and Japan have enhanced their strategic cooperation with India, China’s immediate neighbour. Russia may be China’s partner of convenience at the moment, but is wary of the latter. Russia has limited its energy supplies to China. South Korea may be pretty vociferous in its anti U.S. chants; however Seoul would still bank upon the United States for its economic affluence and safety. China has, in the last couple of years, picked up a fight on one pretext or the other, with each one of its neighbours. As a result, all the countries in the neighbourhood have begun constructing embankments against China (Pai 2011). Myanmar is opening up to India and the United States at the expense of China. Vietnam and Indonesia are also cynical about China’s future intentions and have therefore improved their economic ties with the United States and Japan considerably. All these realignments would foil China’s march to hegemony in Asia; leave alone the entire world (TRatnam 1996). Territorial Disputes China is besieged with social strife and ethnic unrest. Three of China’s largest minorities have created a tumultuous situation in the country. Violence and riots are the order of the day in Mongolia and Xinjiang (Pai 2011). Huge chunks of China’s territory, most notably Tibet, are also occupied by secessionist-minded minority groups. Taiwan has and probably will continue to pose a set of problems for China. This means that China’s territorial area is at stake and China would have to spend huge resources in terms of time and military spends to stop the risks of internal fragmentation. The structural weakness will not allow China to project its power abroad and pursue its ambition of becoming a superpower. (Pei 2010). Military Factors China has increased its military budget considerably in recent times. The contention of the Chinese government is that the increased spends are a reflection of the general economic growth and the additional resources are apportioned to non-threatening expenditures like better pay for servicemen, compensation for escalating prices, and modernizing the information technology (IT) wherewithal of the military (Chen 2009). The latest Defence White Paper published in January 2009 by the China states the overall defence budget for 2008 to be $61.185 billion. However, most countries doubt the correctness of these figures. A 2009 Pentagon report pegs the total military budget of China to be anywhere between $105 and $150 billion. Anyways China’s military spends are miniscule vis-à-vis the $719 billion military budget of the United States. (Wang 2010) The problem that China faces is that the other nations look at China with suspicion when it comes to military budget. Critics argue that China is greatly underreporting its military expenditures and obtaining new power-projection capabilities by hoodwinking the other nations. Conclusion Over the past 30 years, China has had a remarkable run and has attained high levels of GDP growth. The world today recognizes China as an ‘emerging superpower’. While there are parameters on which China has scored wonderfully well to be termed as a hot contender for becoming a superpower, there are many challenges in the way. These challenges are truly daunting and are prevalent in the economic, social, demographic and political environment of the country. The paradox in the country is that while it is a major economy, it still remains a developing country. It is a land where skyscrapers coexist with slum dwelling made of mud and corrugated iron. China’s per capita income of less than $4000 in 2010 is just one-tenth of the level of per capita income in the United States and Japan. 50 percent of the Chinese citizens live in villages and are devoid of safe drinking water and do not have access to basic healthcare and decent education. The rate of urbanization is a mere one percent per annum and at this rate China will take another 30 years to scale down its peasantry to 25 percent of the population. Past performance is no guarantee of future success. Japan’s economic prowess at one stage made it an ideal contender for a superpower. Japan did not become a global superpower. China would probably follow the same path. The hallmark of a truly great country is that other nations want to emulate it. This trait is conspicuous by its absence in China. At best, China inspires curiosity but certainly not envy or emulation. China has indeed come a long way in the last three decades. However the way forward is much longer and more apparently more tortuous. Several favourable factors like near limitless access to the global markets and discounted environmental costs will eventually vanish and adversely affect the Chinese economy. As it is, China’s vulnerabilities are so many in number that the “Chinese Threat” to neighbours and to business competitors has diminished considerably. The conclusion of the aforesaid discussion is that China is not, and will not be a Superpower. At best, it will be an influential power on the world stage. Works Cited Bian, Yanjie. "Chinese Social Stratification and Social Mobility." Annual Review of Sociology 28.03600572 (2002): 91-116. ABI/INFORM Complete. Web. 23 Nov. 2011. Chen, Sean, and John Feffer. "Chinas Military Spending: Soft Rise Or Hard Threat?" Asian Perspective 33.4 (2009): 47-II. ABI/INFORM Complete. Web. 23 Nov. 2011. China Economy: Quick View - Sharp Rise in GDP. 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