Rethinking Imperial Power in Global Times - Essay Example

? [A NEW GLOBAL POWER: CHINA OR INDIA This critical analysis evaluates economic development, military advancement and political growth of India and China to determine which of the two countries may have greater influence on global affairs in future. Based on the actual and predicted development of China and India, the paper critically evaluates which of the two countries has greater chances of becoming a new global power. In the recent years, both China and India have emerged as major economies of the world. The two countries’ economies are among the fastest growing economies of the world. China and India have sought to make good international relations. Countries such as the United States are concerned about what the international relations of China and India will result into, in future, in terms of global affairs. This paper analyses economic development, military advancement and political growth of both India and China to determine how the two countries may influence the world in future. Therefore, based on the actual and predicted development of China and India, the paper critically evaluates the countries’ chances to emerge as a new global power. Located in the South East of Asia, China is the third largest country in the world, following Russia and Canada (Richardson, 2007, p, 6). China has a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council, and can therefore, influence major global issues (Callahan, 2005, p, 701). The United States could be the largest and most powerful economy in terms of defence technology, but the United States does not contribute towards changing the global economy as much as China does. Based on China’s economy, the country has been doing well on every aspect of economic development. For instance, China dominates the roads construction sector in the world and manufactures almost every product. To be a bit specific, most consumer electronics are manufactured in China. That is why in every household, there is a product made in China. This is a goal that the country had set long time ago that every household should at least have one product made in China by the twenty first century. Surprisingly, China has achieved this goal. From the country’s economic data, it is evident that china influences the global economy. For instance, consumer spending is expected to rise from 35% to 50% by 2015. This will give China an upper hand to grow economically. 70% of United States GDP is derived from consumer spending (US Commercial Service, 2013). It should also be noted that China seeks to develop biotechnology. The country bases its modernisation process mainly on its domestic resources (Bijian, 2005, p, 20). Chart1: China’s Current and Projected Consumer Spending China’s economic growth is remarkable. The country recorded an economic growth rate of 7.8% in 2012 and 9.3% in 2011. This was much better, compared to United States of America’s economic growth rate of 2.2%, India’s growth rate of 3.2%, Japan’s growth rate of 1.9%, Germany’s growth rate of 0.7% and United Kingdom’s economic growth rate of 3.2% (Chart 2). This follows that China is the second largest economy of the world, after America. In addition, according to the 2012 International Monetary Fund report on GDP of various countries, China ranks second, after the United States of America. Furthermore, China is expected to narrow the margin by 2017, as per the estimates. According to 2050 estimates, China is expected to be the world’s largest economy, followed by United States of America. By 2001, United States of America was the largest oil consumer, while China was third, but by 2009, China had risen to the second position. Innovations have been occurring in many parts of the Chinese economy (Chow, 2010). This innovation begins from private enterprises to educational institutions. Chart 2: Economic Growth of China and India As a result of adopting industrialization, China has increased its dependency on energy sources, raw materials and natural resources. The country has realised that it should secure these materials in order to maintain its social, economic and commercial stability. Therefore, in a bid to sustain security and growth, since these are national priorities the country has to source for resources and this has made China to partner with many countries, something that has led to the increase of many questions about the country’s geopolitical motives (Burgos & Ear, 2012, p, 47). In terms of military and defence, China ranks fifth in budget, but it could be the second, the United States. Defence budget for China has been increasing by 15% per year, since the mid 1990s (Ross & Zhu, 2008, p, 39). However, China is likely to be limited by issues such as its precedence on the stability of the global economic system and economic growth. China also faces internal threats, and in future, health care is likely to become of a higher priority than military spending because China’s population is rapidly aging. China can target its nuclear forces throughout the region and most of the world. It has geopolitical power to influence the South-East Asia and Indian Ocean. The pearls-ports that the country built were meant for commercial services, but could be used for military purposes in future. As much as China has started to reduce its dependency on Sea Lines of Communication, by building new oil pipelines from Kazakhstan and Russia and gas pipelines from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, it will not fully alleviate the country’s dependency on maritime energy. The country has the capability of projecting its military power in East and South East Asia and also in the Western Pacific Ocean easily. With ballistic missiles, China can conduct strikes on land targets and naval ships with precision. Aircraft carriers that operate far from Chin’s shores can also be stroke accurately. China’s submarine forces are the most modernised, followed by air defence forces. China has cyber, space and nuclear warfare capabilities that are global in nature. Having strong armed force and building maritime power will aid in international peacekeeping, disaster relief, humanitarian assistance and protection of sea lanes. China seeks to its army, People Liberation Army, capacity so as to be able to conduct highly, intensified regional, military operations. This will include anti- access and area denial, and will enable China to counter enemy forces from operating within Taiwan. The country further seeks to strengthen and expand its maritime buffer zone so as to prevent foreign attack. In terms of population, China leads and will be second by 2050, closely following India. With a large population, the country has an advantage because labour will be readily available, at a cheaper cost. Politically, China is on a stable region, with a reliable labour, while in terms of education, China has very may citizens who have pursued higher education, and more specifically, majority of these citizens are pursuing science and engineering. The number of engineers that China produces exceeds any other country by a great margin. China has been able to do well in the regionalisation of East Asia, and this has given the country ability for political mobilization. For some years to come, opportunities to improve relations with the European Union further, will strengthen its influence on global affairs (Xuetong, 2013, p, 20). China perceives United States as the major obstacle to the rise of China. This is because United States has been influencing the European Union (Hauser & Kernic, 2009, p, 82). It is worth to note that China has made alliances with Russia and Central Asian Republics and is penetrating Africa in terms of exports. The country invests in Latin America, as well. Given China’s economic, military and political prosperity, China shows the potential of emerging as a regional power due to its long established historical pattern. The country has foreign policies that sophisticated, as well (Beeson & Li, 2012, p, 35). India is also located in South Asia, and it is the seventh largest with a population of more than one billion (Solski, 2012, p, 8). It is acknowledged that India has become newly important. It is categorised as an emerging, or a rising Asian giant that has developed anew affluence. India is ranked seventh in terms of military budget (Chart 3). India’s expanded military capability will enable it to play larger role in the world affairs, especially in Asia (Cohen & Dasgupta, 2013). For instance, India managed to trounce Pakistan in the regional conflict between them (Buzan, 2002, p, 1). The country has a vital stake in maritime security, given that it is an emerging global economic and trade power that is bordered by the Indian Ocean and other seas (Rao, 2011, p, 126). Chart 3: Military Spending of China and India India is well equipped by nuclear submarines. It should also be noted inter- continental ballistic missile owned by India can strike cities like Shanghai and Beijing, but India’s nuclear power is lower. In terms military modernisation India is backed up by countries such as the United States of America. For instance, in 2005, the United States president and India’s prime minister signed a deal that has been approved by the countries’ parliaments. The deal will see United States sell nuclear fuel, technology and reactors to India for peaceful energy use. India is second in the world, in terms of population. Given its high population growth rate, India is expected to become the world’s most populous country by 2050. Using its large population as an investment, India seeks to have five hundred million skilled workers by 2022. It will use the young in its endeavours (King, 2012, p, 665). Currently, the Indian diaspora lives in different countries, they speak different languages, and more importantly, they engage in different vocations. Their common identity is their consciousness on their Indian origin and deep attachment to India (Chaturvedi, 2005, p, 142). The population is characterised with multi-culture and democracy. Chart 4: Population of India and China In terms of economic development, India is dynamic and reforming. The country has been pursuing policies of economic liberalization that allow foreign investment (Feigenbaum, 2010, p, 76). In the recent years, the Indian economy emerged as the world’s second fastest growing economy (Ganguly & Pardesi, 2007, p, 9). The country has been embracing Asian industrialisation and might make the country to overtake China by 2050 (Rowley, 2013). In terms of economic performance, India is doing well, among the top ten, and by 2017, it might move to number six. By 2050, India will be following United States of America closely in terms of economy as per the International Monetary Fund estimates. For instance, India ha brought companies that compete internationally (Huang & Khanna, 2003, p, 74). India was among top ten oil consumers of the world. Specifically, the country ranked number seven in 2001. By 2009, the country had moved to fourth place. This is due to economic progression. Given that India is entrepreneurial country with its economy depending more on the private sector enterprises that on state owned enterprises, it has the potential to show the fastest growth in the next thirty to fifty years. It is imperative to note that corruption levels are low India and the country is connected and is IT savvy. Also, there is efficient resource utilization and the country’s innovation is high. However, there are many factors that will hinder India’s economic and political prosperity. These include the country’s large population that is too diverse to guarantee political stabilization. In India, inequality is an issue still and education is elitist. For instance, illiteracy is very high. Overall illiteracy level is 26% while female illiteracy is 34.5%, compared to China’s overall illiteracy level of 4.8% and female illiteracy of 7.3%. Another issue that acts as a hindrance to India’s success is environmental degradation. India has no global agenda; it is concerned with China, and not the world. From the analysis of India and China, in terms of current economical growth, political prosperity and military modernisation and advancement, as well as population and educational advantages, it has been established that the United States still remains the globe’s superpower. China is still far from reaching where the United States is currently. Also, based on the analysis, India is behind China. It is also worthy to note that China has gone radical, domestic transformation, carried out in the image of the advanced industrial West and has benefitted immensely in the process. China promotes development of new renewable energy capacity (Eisen, 2011, p, 9). India’s future prosperity is only based on speculations. For instance, India is expected to the ahead of China in terms of economic performance and growth by 2050, but this statement cannot be justified by the current state and future plans. Not much has been achieved currently in terms of military power, economic growth and economic performance to facilitate future growth. Secondly, India is not concerned with global affairs, but rather, it is competes with China. This is because India is used by countries such as the United States to suppress China’s growth indirectly. Given the current performance of China in economic and military fields, and its investments in such fields, there are great expectations that China will proper, even more in future. The expected growth rate of China will guarantee more achievements in future. Thus, the country will have more influence on global issues. Currently, China is known to influence the global economy, even more that the current super power, the United States, does. China has got ambitions to even have more influence to ensure global balance in terms of economic growth and security. Also, China has made alliances with many countries and has invested in almost every country. China accommodates and supports many countries with hidden motives, but in future, it might change its motives to suit its interests. China has re-emerged into world politics and portrays promise of challenging the United States (Agnew, 2010, p, 571). It might capitalise on its established economic growth and military advancement to influence the whole world. The country has ambitions to become a global leader in technology, science and commercial innovation (Steinfeld, 2010). It is difficult to tell when China will become the world’s next super power, but from the analysis, China, and not India, has a very high chance of emerging as a new global power. References Agnew, J., 2010. Emerging China and Critical Geopolitics: Between World Politics and Chinese Particularity, Journal of Eurasian Geography and Economics, pp. 569-582. Beeson, M., & Li, F., 2012. Charmed or Alarmed? Reading China's Regional Relations, Journal of Contemporary China, pp. 35-51. Bijian, Z., 2005. China's Peaceful Rise to Great-power Status . Journal of Foreign Affairs , pp.18-24. Breslin, S., 2009. Understanding China’s Regional Rise: Interpretations, Identities and Implications, Journal of International Affairs, pp. 817–835. Burgos Caceres, S. & Ear, S., 2012. The Geopolitics of China's Global Resources Quest, Journal of Geopolitics, pp. 47-79. Buzan, B., 2002. South Asia moving towards Transformation: Emergence of India as a Great Power, Journal of International Studies, pp. 1-24. Callahan, W.A., 2005. How to understand China: The Dangers and Opportunities of being a Rising Power, Journal of Review of International Studies, pp. 701-721. Chaturvedi, S., 2005. Diaspora in India's Geopolitical Visions: Linkages, Categories, and Contestations’. Journal of Asian Affairs, pp. 141-168. Chow, G. C., 2010. Interpreting China's Economy. Singapore: World Science Publishing Company. Cohen, S. P., & Dasgupta, S., 2013. Arming without Aiming: India's Military Modernization. Washington, D.C: Brookings Institution Press. Eisen, J. B., 2011. The New Energy Geopolitics?: China, Renewable Energy, and the 'Greentech Race'. Chicago-Kent Law Review , pp. 9-58. Feigenbaum, E.A., 2010. India’s Rise, America’s Interest. Journal of Foreign Affairs, pp. 76-91. Ganguly, S. & Pardesi, M.J., 2007. India Rising: What is New Delhi to do?’ World Policy Journal, pp. 9-18. Hauser, G., & Kernic, F.,2009. China: The Rising Power. Oxford : Lang Press. Huang, Y. & Khanna, T., 2003. Can India overtake China? Journal of Foreign Policy, pp.74-81. King, K., 2012.The Geopolitics and Meanings of India’s Massive Skills Development Ambitions, International Journal of Educational Development, pp. 665–673. Rao, N., 2011. India as a Consensual Stakeholder in the Indian Ocean: Policy Contours. Journal of the Indian Ocean Region, pp. 126-130. Richardson, A. ,2007. China. Minnesota: Creative Education Press. Ross, R. S., & Zhu, F., 2008. China's Ascent: Power, Security, and the Future of International Politics. Ithaca : Cornell University Press. Rowley, E., 2013, July 16. India 'will become World's Biggest Economy in Less than 40 Years. Retrieved from http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10182819/India-will-become-worlds-biggest-economy-in-less-than-40-years.html Solski, R., 2012. All About India . New Delhi: The Mark Press. Steinfeld, E. S., 2010. Playing Our Game: Why China's Rise Doesn't Threaten the West. New York: Oxford University Press. US Commercial Service., 2013. China Business Handbook 2013. Retrieved from http://export.gov/china/build/groups/public/@eg_cn/documents/webcontent/eg_cn_055956.pdf Xuetong, Y., 2013. The Rise of China and its Power Status. Chinese Journal of International Politics , pp. 5-33. Read More