The Pakistan-Afghanistan Border - Thesis Proposal Example

This thesis scrutinizes the reasons why the Borderlands of Pakistan and Afghanistan and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) havebecome a global security concern. It reveals the nexus between the human and physical geography of the area and the global insecurity paused by terrorist groups and insurgents. The research probes into the current and historical factors that have conspired to undermine the security of this region. The research analyses the status of security and the various nature of insecurity prevalent in the region by drawing parallels between the insurgency in the region and the global terrorism and prevalence of terrorism cells. In doing so, the thesis digs into the Pashtun ethnic group to unravel connections between the community and insurgents. FATA is analyzed to reveal, within geographical perspective, why the region is accommodating to terrorist cells and insurgents despite national and international efforts to secure the region. Further, it highlights the factors that fuel insurgency and terrorism despite all efforts to combat them. The research goes ahead and explores the impacts of insecurity, and the spread thereof at the global scale. The policy of various stakeholders toward the regions is weighed up, and the changing efforts and strategy to combat the problem is scrutinized. Finally, the thesis looks at the possible solution to the whole problem. The research shall rely on secondary data, mainly research work and publications of scholars. It shall also rely on primary data, particularly through interview of security expert’s privy with the region. The research expect to find that various geographical factors have conspired to undermine the security, while the concerned stakeholders are yet to value the scope to which these factors contribute to the insecurity. Key words: insurgency, terrorism, FATA, Pakistan & Afghanistan. Table of content. 1 Introduction……………………………………………………………………… 4 1. 1 Statement of need-the problem …………………………………………… 4 2 Framing the problem within geographic method………………………………….. 6 3 Research objectives-the question you problem…………………………………… 8 4 Data collectionn......................................................................................................... 9 4.1 data analysis: 4.2 Interpretation and expected results 4.3 Dissemination. 5 Conclusion and contributions……………………………………………………… 10 6 Literature review………………………………………………………………….. 11 6.1. Introduction 6.2. Geography of the borderline of Pakistan-Afghanistan (BAP) and FATA region 6.3. Security status: implications at the local, regional and international level. 6.4. Causes of insecurity; theories 6.5. Conclusion 7 Appendices…………………………………………………………………………. 7 1. Introduction The Pakistan-Afghanistan border has experienced turbulence for centuries. It is currently a significant threat to U.S national security interests, yet the extent of this security threat is yet to be appreciated by policy makers in Washington (Johnson & Mason 2008, 41). In 2001, the U.S forces easily overthrew the Taliban regime in less than 3 months. The initial success was, however, eclipsed by the Taliban who transformed into a sustained insurgency with a view to overthrow the Afghan government (Jones S 2008, 7). According to Johnson and Mason (2008, 42), the region is the locus of the regenerating Al-Qaida network where it has not only built its command structure in the border region but has continuously recruited and trained operatives to infiltrate the United States and other Western countries under uninterrupted bankrolling from Saudi Arabian Wahabist. Indeed, Johnson and Mason have labeled this frontier as the most dangerous place on earth. The region is prone to a horde of crimes which have a bearing on the national, regional and national security (United Nations 2010, 23). Consequently, this study shall concentrate on the insecurity in this region, in the context of the human and physical geography. It shall concentrate on the influence of both the terrain and the Pashtun ethnic community. 1.1 STATEMENT OF NEED-THE PROBLEM: The larger problem shall comprise the study of how the instability in the borderland of Pakistan and Afghanistan (BPA) and the FATA areas of Pakistan has far reaching repercussion on international security, terrorism, Pakistan’s stability and U.S efforts to stabilize Afghanistan. The importance of addressing the larger problem stems from a variety of factors. The Taliban have become influential adversary in Afghanistan, and in order to understand the ideology of this enemy, one must peel back the Islamic and Taliban identities and delve into their Pasthunwali culture (Emadi H, 2005). Embedded in the pashtunwali culture are concepts of honor and revenge, the sheer driver that mobilize them against a common enemy. To begin with, this region is lawless, ungoverned, and potential power vacuum has been created. It is necessary in order to evaluate whether Pakistan is a failed state. This is because the problem has been exploited by militia, Taliban commanders, drug traffickers and terrorist groups such as to establish and exercise a lot of control and create a haven for their activities. Accordingly, according to a report to the congress, this region poses a direct security threat to national security of United States, stability of Pakistan as well as U.S effort to stabilize Afghanistan. Secondly, the region poses a distinctive problem to the regional as well as international security. This is elevated by the inaccessibility of this region due to a multitude of factors, among them; geographical location, security factors and its physical terrain. With regards to terrain, the area is located in mountainous terrain, broken by small basins and valleys (Federally Administered Tribal Area official website) and, therefore, heavily inaccessible (Johnson & Mason 2008). With regard to geographical factors, it is because of its location at the border with Afghanistan and; therefore, it cannot be effectively combated by one country alone and indeed, bearing in mind that the border is highly porous such that establishment of any meaningful control is impossible. Moreover, the problem is notable because it has attracted interest from the international community led by United States. As a result, the government of Pakistan is caught between the pressures of the international community led by United States, and internal competing factors, such as Pakistan’s own interests, for example, reliance on the predominantly Pashtun to promote their tactical welfare in the region given their poor relationship with India (Wirsing2009, 2). Consequently, this thesis shall dwell on the question of the causes and the consequences of instability in the BPA and FATA region of Pakistan. This question shall be critical, as it shall help to put into perspective the various causes and to see whether the policy makers are addressing the core issues as far as the security status is concerned. 2 FRAMING THE PROBLEM WITHIN GEOGRAPHIC METHOD The region is located at the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, Southern Asia, which is 1,640 miles long and which according to a report by the world Food Organization (Feb 2007), is around 27,220km2, in the coordinates, 34.00° N 71.32° E (According to CIA World Fact book) it is bordered by Afghanistan to the west. The between the two is marked by the Durand line, and the Pakistan provinces of Baluchistan to the south, North-West Frontier Province and the Punjab to the east (FATA official website). Figure 1. The Pakistan-Afghanistan Border and Frontier Area SOURCE: U.S. Department of State, 2007 According to Johnson and Mason(2008,43), the Pakistan-Afghanistan border region is a forbidding landscape of towering mountain ranges, narrow valleys, desert plains, and rocky, barren wasteland. The topography alone makes the creation of an identifiable border to be nearly impossible. The terrain is so remote and so mountainous, such that it is virtually inaccessible (Federally Administered Tribal Area official Website). This thesis will be anchored on the geographical dimensions; historical geography, cultural geography, economic geography, human geography, political geography and settlement geography to establish their impact on the research problem. It will be limited to the FATA regions of Pakistan, to the borderline of Pakistan and Afghanistan and the western part of Afghanistan. Figure 2. Location of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas Coordinates: 33°0?0?N 70°10?0?E SOURCE: “Welcome to FATA,” http://www.fata.gov.pk/. With relation to the temporal dimension, this study will concentrate on history of this region since the efforts of Ahmad Shah Durrani (Singh 1977), to the present day, clearly exploring how various events have shaped the present status. This study shall be based on the temporal dimension of both time and space that shall rely on the study area, shown in figure 2 above. 3 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES-THE QUESTION YOU PROBLEM. At the end of this research, it is hoped that the research questions will be answered. This study shall, hence, shall try to answer questions like; why does the region present a threat to world? ; Why various do efforts to combat these phenomena fail? It shall be the assertion of this study that various overlapping factors, and not one, combine to make the region threat to national, regional and international security. This study shall focus on differentiating these factors. The question to consider in this study shall include the following. a) What factors make this region prone to militancy, terrorism, drug trafficking and insurgency? b) What factors contributes to the defeat of Pakistan and the international community effort to secure this area. c) How are all these factors related to the geography of this area? d) Which are the challenges that are posed to international peace and order? e) What steps are necessary to secure this area? Hence, the objective of this study shall be to answer the above questions, make the research problem clear and make the various factors conspicuous. 4 DATA COLLECTION To achieve both objective and the purpose of this study, primary and secondary data will be employed. The secondary data shall be used to lay the basis of the formulation of the questionnaire, and for the reader to comprehend the survey better. The research shall employ questionnaire survey to gather information from security experts and analysts, some Pakistan and afghan citizens preferably through the use of emails, and people involved in policy formulation both in United States and Pakistan. The data collected will involve the total area under the control of militants, population of the area and per capita income. Moreover, types of and nature of crimes committed both pre and post 9/11 will be examined, so as to examine the impact of the war on terror on security and the gains or losses made. For example the research shall consider questions such as; how many times have the insurgents attacked the military installations? How many acts of suicide bombing? What is the per capita income? What is the population of the area? 4.1 Data analysis: The raw data collected from questionnaires will be analysed using SPSS Statistics (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences), which is broadly utilised for statistical data analysis. To analyse the data from the research, one starts by first defining a set of variables, and then enter data for the variables to create a number of case. SPSS is applicable ion in this research due to the diverse data and variables. The software can draw graphs and chart. Another method will be through the use of GIS and knowledge discovery (KD) which aids in identifying patterns and extracting significant, beforehand inexplicable information from databases. Thereafter, the maps shall be drawn to represent the region under the control of insurgents and military, those under the occupation of the Pashtun community and the spread and distribution of violent and criminal acts in the area under study. 4.2 INTERPRETATION AND EXPECTED RESULTS The data shall be analyzed to reveal the upsurge of crimes and insurgency in FATA following the 9/11, the extent and distribution of violence and terrorism acts attributed to terror cells in this region. The research shall unearth the possible causes of degenerating security in this area and, therefore, help the reader to understand the region better. The researcher shall rely on the data to understand the situation on the ground and therefore inform the reliance on secondary data. To add policy makers can also rely on the study to formulate the policy to arrest the situation. The theory to be relied on is that the terrain and anarchy of this region is the main contributing factors to the problem. 4.3. Dissemination. The research agenda and recommendations will be widely disseminated to national and international government agencies, geographic research community and to related disciplines. 5. CONCLUSION AND CONTRIBUTIONS The research will be useful to every reader who desires to understand this region. Moreover, it shall be helpful to policy makers as their decisions shall be informed by the situations on the ground. Moreover, it is expected that the research shall be useful to the readers and the authorities to change perceptions. 6. Literature review 6.1. Introduction The borderlands of Afghanistan and Pakistan stretching from western Afghanistan to the Federally Administered areas of Pakistan (FATA) have been labeled as the most hazardous place on earth (Thomas & Mason 2008, 42). According to Ijaz Khan (2008, 22), militancy in FATA is a consequence of the insight that Afghanistan is under foreign occupation and that Pakistan is acting as a “front line” state in support of the U.S. and NATO forces. Rightly speaking, the area is considered as the biggest source of security concern in the region, as well as international security (Riaz 201, 10). The region is prone to a horde of crimes which have a bearing on the national, regional and national security (United Nations 2010, 23), all of which complement and, in fact, ameliorate the situation. It is conceived as stateless or ungoverned, with the region notorious for lack of law and order. It is a highly militarized society composed mainly of the Pashtun Ethnicity. The area is the poorest and least developed part of Pakistan with Low literacy levels. Hussain (2002, 7) states that it is the Taliban militants control this region. Akorlie A. Nyatepe-Coo and Dorothy Zeisler-Vralsted (2004, 5) state that due to the terrain, United States employ large scale conventional strikes, as well as air power, against an adversary that chooses to avoid a face-to-face battlefield environment but instead relies on guerilla-style tactics, which draw, the U.S forces into situations that increase the likelihood of collateral damage to infrastructure and civilians. Fig 3: Study area 6.2. Geography of the Borderline of Pakistan-Afghanistan (BAP) and FATA Region The borderlands of Afghanistan and Pakistan stretching from western Afghanistan to the Federally Administered areas of Pakistan (FATA) have been labeled as the most hazardous place on earth (Thomas & Mason 2008, 42) .According to Ijaz Khan (2008, 22), militancy in the FATA is a consequence of the insight that Afghanistan is under foreign occupation and that Pakistan is acting as a “front line” state in support of the U.S. and NATO forces. Rightly speaking, the area is considered as the biggest source of security concern in the region, as well as international security (Riaz 201, 10). The region is prone to a horde of crimes which have a bearing on the national, regional and national security (United Nations 2010, 23), all of which complement and, in fact, ameliorate the situation. It is conceived as stateless or ungoverned, with the region notorious for lack of law and order. It is a highly militarized society composed mainly of the Pashtun Ethnicity. The area is the poorest and least developed part of Pakistan with Low literacy levels. Hussain (2002, 7) states that it is the Taliban militants control this region. Akorlie A. Nyatepe-Coo and Dorothy Zeisler-Vralsted (2004, 5) state that due to the terrain, United States employ large scale conventional strikes, as well as air power, against an adversary that chooses to avoid a face-to-face battlefield environment but instead relies on guerilla-style tactics, which draw the U.S forces into situations that increase the likelihood of collateral damage to infrastructure and civilians. Figure 4: Ethnicity Map This assertion by Johnson and Mason concerning the role of the Pashtun community is heavily criticized by Kimberly Marten( 2009, 189) arguing that they carry this argument too far, engaging in cultural reductionism by portraying the Pashtun tribal code as the determining factors behind politics and preferences in FATA. She argues that Johnson and Mason error by treating Pashtun identity as if it were set in stone, and failing to consider that today’s Islamist rely on different sources of support than did the mullahs, who led jihad against the British empire. Her sentiment are buttressed by Orakzi M(2009), who states that the tribesmen, who were cooperative towards the Pakistan’s efforts towards the capture of militiamen escaping from U.S operations in Tora Bora have now become Hostile. 6.3. Security status: Implications at the local, regional and international level. According to Orakzi, M (2009) FATA had been largely peaceful before 9/11. It had remained as Pakistan’s most peaceful area since 1947 even following the Russians invasion into Afghanistan and later infightings by the various Afghan groups. However, following the U.S invasion in Afghanistan, it has gradually mutated into a warzone. Today, FATA is being seen as the source and axis of militancy by many, not only in Pakistan but in the whole region and an exporter of violence to the global arena. The government of Pakistan believes that the growing number of suicide attacks and other violent incidents have their roots in this area (Orakzi M, 2009). The area is home to a host of militants keen to export jihad to the rest of the world. Key among them is the Taliban. Following the invasion of Afghanistan by the U.S forces, thousands of Taliban fighters and indeed the entire Taliban senior leadership, found sanctuary within this area. In Pakistan, there is increased insurgency, instability and violence engineered by the militias who operate in this area (Khan 2008, 2-7). For example in 2007, according to Khan A (2008, 144) violence that was restricted to the tribal areas of the NWFP not only intensified and took a more ominous form, but also spread to other parts of the country. The boundary between these two countries has become very porous and insecure. To add, the area becomes an external “safe haven” for elements, Taliban commanders and drug traffickers (Koprowski 2009, 29). The violence and lawlessness in this region has spilled over to Afghanistan. Indeed, a report by Leonard Barry (2009) finds that the greatest challenge to long-term security within Afghanistan is the insurgents’ sanctuary within FATA of Pakistan. The prevailing situation has also contributed to increased Taliban activities against NATO troops in Afghanistan (Wall Street journal, 2008).Johnson and Mason (2008, 73) argues that the problem that was for a longtime regional, in the era of international jihadists and networked non-state terrorism, now present a truly global threat. He states that the London Subway bombings were planned and trained for there. Therefore, terrorists groups such as Al-Qaida have taken advantages of the prevailing lawlessness to establish a safe haven for their operations. According to Mason, this region, which was almost certainly home to both Osama bin Laden and his lieutenant, Ayman al-Zawahiri, had once again become a locus for a regenerating al-Qaida network. Nevertheless, Orakzi, M (2009), observe that instability in FATA is in fact a consequence of foreign forces in Afghanistan; FATA is not the cause of instability, rather it is a victim of what is happening around it. 6.4. Causes of insecurity; theories Many authors attribute the present status of the region to the autonomy it enjoys under the constitution. Others like Johnson and Mason (2008, 47) blame it on the Pashtun ethnic group, which they argue is a highly militarized society. Moreover, other scholars have pointed a finger to historical factors including the British activities in the area that made the Pashtuns united against them. Moreover, the Russians invasion into Afghanistan played a great role towards the militarization of this zone, given that the mujahedeen were given a lot of western support to counter the Russians (Koprowski 2009, 49). Johnson and Mason have attributed the same to the inaccessibility of the region. Consequently, it has become impossible for Islamabad to establish any form of control, given the inability of their military to penetrate these areas. Geographically, the porous border between the two countries have only served to allow uninhibited access between these two countries, which on one side defeat any attempt by Pakistan to establish order, as well as import the violence to foreign countries. According to a United Nations report, the proliferation of drug trade especially in opium has given the insurgents a source of revenue to maintain the insurgency. Yet other authors, for example Orakzi, deny that this region is the cause of global insecurity arguing that it is in fact a victim. He further argues that the problem in FATA stems from the fact that it was neglected and unfortunately no serious attempt was made by any government to bring the tribal areas into the national mainstream. 6.5. Conclusion, Several factors conspire and complement each other to ameliorate the status in FATA. Therefore, it is important for the stakeholders to acknowledge and accept these factors while formulating a comprehensive policy to combat and restore order. The Pakistan government has established some sort of agreement with the tribal leaders, who however have been displaced in influence by the militants and Mujahedeen commanders. U.S has for some time now employed drones to strike deep into the rugged terrain; therefore increased technology will serve to reach the militant who enjoyed freedom due to inaccessibility. 7. APPENDICES Appendix 1: Working outline Appendix 1: work outline 1. chapter 1 : 1.1. Introduction 2. chapter 2 2.1. literature review 3. chapter 3 : 3.1. research Methodology 4. Chapter 4 4.1. Main finding 5. Chapter 5 5.1.1. Conclusions and Recommendations 6. Chapter 6: Limitations and Future Studies. Appendix 2: obstacles and budget The main obstacles shall involve travelling, selecting objective respondents, cost, gathering primary data and disseminating research work. Classification Supplies and materials Travel Data processing Facilities or equipment Personnel Cost in dollars 200 150 250 150 300 Appendix 3: Schedule Classification Introduction Literature review Research Methodology Main Finding Conclusion and recommendations: limitations and future studies Scheduled period May 1-may 4 may 6- may 9 May 12- May 16 May 17-May 23 May 24-may 27 Appendix 4 map List 1. map of FATA 2. Map of Pakistan 3. Map of the Border between Afghanistan and Pakistan 4. Map of south west Asia Appendix 5: Dissemination Plan I intend to disseminate through the internet, journals, and libraries including online libraries. Geography References cited list Eur. 2003.Far East and Australasia. Routledge publishers. Hagel, Chuck and Kerry, John. 2009. Needed: A Comprehensive US Policy towards Pakistan, The Atlantic Council Special Report. Hauna, Milan. 1982. Afghanistan between the Great Powers, 1938 – 1945. International Journal of Middle East Studies. 14(4): 481-499. Johnson, T &Mason, C. 2008. No sign Until the Bust of fire: Understanding the Pakistan-Afghanistan Frontier. International security. 32, 41-77 Khan, Adeel. 2008. Pakistan in 2007: More violent, More Unstable. Asian Survey. 48 (1): 144-200 Koprowski, Mike. 2009. Defeating the FATA Insurgency. Yale Journal of International Affairs. 73: (1-15). Kronstadt, Alan & Katzaman Kenneth. 2008. Islamist Militancy in the Pakistan- Afghanistan Border Region and U.S. Policy.CRS Report for Congress. Leonard, Barry. 2009. Report on Progress toward security and stability in Afghanistan. Diane Publishing.Pg. 7. Morgan, Forrest. 2010. Pakistan: Can the United States Secure an Insecure State. Rand Publishing. P.g 55. Marten K,(2011). Misunderstanding Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Area? International Security. Winter 2009, Vol. 33, No. 3, Pages 180-189. Nelson, Matthew. 2010. Pakistan in 2009: Tackling Taliban? Asian Survey. 50(1): 10-57. Orakzi, M .2009. Situation in FATA: Causes, Consequences and the Way Forward Policy Perspectives, Vol. 6 (1) , January - June 2009. Peoples, James and Bailey Gallick. 2011. Humanity: An introduction to cultural anthropology. Cengage Learning. Shah, Mehtab.1995. The Foreign policy of Pakistan: ethics impacts on diplomacy. Shehzad H. Qazi. (2011) Rebels of the frontier: origins, organization, and recruitment of the Pakistani Taliban. Small Wars & Insurgencies 22:4, 574-602. Shuja, Nawaz. 2009. FATA- A most dangerous place: Meeting the challenge of militancy and terror in the federally administered tribal areas of Pakistan. International Security.23, 12- 22. Singh, Ganda. 1977. Ahmad Shah Durrani: father of modern Afghanistan. Asian pub.House. Bombay. Taliban is Seizing, Destroying More NATO supplies,” Wall Street Journal, August 12, 2008; United Nations. 2009. Addiction, Crime and Insurgency: the transnational threat of Afghan Opium. United Nations. 2010. Regions under stress. Globalization of crime: A transnational organized Crime threat assessment. United Nations. Weary S., Monroe-Ossi H., Cobb, S., Fountain, C.2002. Concept Mapping Strategies: Content, Tools and Assessment for Human Geography. Vole 111(3), 83-92 Read More