Is Global Warming a Genuine Threat to the Planet - Thesis Example

?[Type the company IS GLOBAL WARMING A GENUINE THREAT TO THE PLANET EARTH? ARGUMENTATIVE THESIS [Pick the Is global warming a genuine threat to the planet earth? Introduction: Simply put global warming is the absorption of Sun’s infra red radiations by greenhouse gases in the earth’s atmosphere, resulting in an overall rise in the temperature of the planet; greenhouse gases being water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide ((IPCC, 2007). The concept known to every environmentally aware individual today and simple though it may sound, this is one of the least understood and most controversial issues today. First mentioned by Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius in 1896, its still not fully understood, the primary reason being the intricate nature of environment and a technology still not deveopled enough to simulate or study it. The object of this thesis is to diecuss the statement "global warming is not a threat to planet earth”, by a study of both sides of the picture. Thesis: Global Warming Is Not A Threat To Planet Earth Though the proponents of the theory of global warming consider it a threat to the very existence of planet Earth and all its inhabitants, and the same is being propogated by governements and non government organisation; private and public associations; media and politicians; there is another group of scientists strictly adhering to the theory of “global warming: a natural phenomenon”, The scientists insist that global warming has been a continuous phenomenon irrespective of human activities. Moreover, they refute the global warming threat on the basis of lack of credibility of the techniques routinely used in the science of climatology; which they stress are ill equipped to study and understand the intricacies of weather. One of the major evidences in favour of global warming being a natural phenomenon is that it has been in existence much before the start of industrial revolution. The concept of hot and cold being relative, if the planet is hot today, there has to be a point of reference; i.e. in comparison to what or when. If we compare the earth temperature to that of 1970s, or to the period spanning 1200 A.D. to the end of 19th century (commonly known as little ice age); yes the planet is warmer (Bradley & Jones, 1993). But in comparison to 1000 A. D. or to more recent 1930s, it is cooler. Infact, since the end of last ice age, 10,700 years ago, there have been seven major phases, four warming and three cooling; one of which is, present warming phase. The melting of glaciers often reported as evidences to global warming threats too can be accounted for by this warm phase or the interglacial phase. The rise in temperature in this phase; 1.5.F is same as that in 1850. Next, greenhouse gases contribute to the phenomenon of global warming in a very small measure: 0.2-0.3%, the bigger factors being astronomic, atmospheric and tectonic. The evidence for this comes from the fact that of the CO2 being produced in the atmosphere only a small fraction 3% is manmade. Same holds true for the rest of the green house gases as well; only 18% of methane, 5% of nitrous oxides are manmade (Wallington et al., 2004). So even the most vigorous of human activities can in no way significantly intensify global warming, nor can a complete cessation of activity inhibit it. While its true that a slight warming has been occurring for the past 50 years, but this warming has been mostly noted for night time and winter temperatures. Moreover the warming trend has been more effcetive in the Northern cooler latitudes. This warming like the phase preeceding the little ice age (1000 A.D.) is proving to be beneficial (Bradley & Jones, 1993). On one hand it is levelling the temperatures by making colder regions warmer, on the other hand, it is responsible for providing longer days, longer seasons and higher CO2 levels for plant growth. This can easily be translated as higher productivity in general, and more agricultural productivity in particular. In light of the above arguments it can well be seen that while warming has been there, but not only has it been as rapid as has been projected or estimated, nor is it a threat. Besides, one important thing to note is that the trends of warming are not to continue at this rate, or even at all, considering the history of Earth. Moreover, while doubling the CO2 level considering today’s level say X as base will be much simpler, than doubling the already doubled (2X) levels of CO2. Considering these facts, the scientific consensus on the issue of global warming being a threat, has been found to be dwindling and the status of the issue as it stands today is ‘controversial’, which is a good beginning. Antethesis: Global Warming Is A Threat To Planet Earth The overall increase in the temperature of Earth due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the earth’s atmosphere has been a cause of concern, mainly due to its effects on global climate, and as a consequence, on natural vegetation as well as agricultural productivity (IPCC, 2007). The proponents of this theory, insist that global warming is a result of industrial revolution and has been magnified to alarming proportions as a consequence of human activity; mainly fossil fuel burning in thermal power plants, vehicular emissions and industries. Such sharp rise in temperature are suspected and calculated to have severe repercussions viz. changes in precipitation patterns, which may further lead to natural disasters such as famines, droughts and even rise in epidemics; since bacteria and disease vectors are known to thrive better in warmer climate. Also they may lead to extinction of certain species as a result of habitat loss. The theory of global warming as a consequence of anthropogenic emissions of CO2 was first introduced by Aususbel in 1983, however it gained prominence in 1980s after it was declared the warmest decade and was followed by severe draught in the United States of America. Since the cause of this significant rise in temperature was not known with surety, the scientific community justifiable launched various studies to understand the phenomena leading to such drastic changes. The result was formation of numerous general circulation models which gave evidences to the role of greenhouse gases in global warming. It was revealed that the greenhouses gases have been consistently adding to the greenhouse influence, and even though a large proportion of these gases are natural, the manmade sources too are contributing significantly to them. CO2 concentrations were found to have been risen by 25% above the preindustrial phase (IPCC, 1990). Chlorofluorocarbon and methane levels had also risen significantly. It is important to consider that though the levels contributed by manmade sources are very small compared to the levels contributed by natural sources, yet since the Earth’s radiation energy balance is highly sensitive, this mild alteration can have serious repercussions. Of the incoming solar radiation (340 watts/ meter square), 100 w/m-2 is reflected back by ice, clouds, aerosols etc. Remaining warms the Earth (raising the temperature of Earth from absolute Zero to -18?C) and is also reflected back in form of IR radiations (340w/m-2). The greenhouse gases trap these IR radiations and warm the Earth by another 33?C (IPCC, 1990). This balance besides being highly sensitive is also substantially dependent on the level of green house gases. A doubling of the total level of greenhouse gases will raise the radiation energy trapped in Earth's atmosphere by 4w/m-2, which would raise global temperatures by 2.5?C (Wallington et al., 2004). This rise in temperature will start a cycle comprising of higher IR radiations and further rise in temperatures. Thus a small change in energy balance can have enormous cascading effects. The effect of global warming becomes even more threatening in light of the fact that it won’t be possible to lower back the raised CO2 levels over the next few centuries. IPCC reports warn that the present level of emissions must be cut down to at least 60-80% in order to check any further rise in CO2 levels (IPCC, 1990). Further evidences for the role of CO2 in contributing to high temperature come from the atmospheres of planets Venus and Mars. Dense CO2 concentrations in Venus and its high temperatures (477.C) and the CO2 sparse atmosphere of Mars and its low temperatures (-47.C) have been correlated. As for the CO2 levels, highly sensitive data from ice core samples from Hawaii, and various sources in Russia have clearly established the rising levels of CO2 in Earth's atmosphere (Cheriff & Adams, 1994). Finally though the threat of global warming may seem remote and impausible in short term study. But if CO2 levels and its emissions remained unchecked in long term a warming may result. This would not only be catastrophic, but also irreversible since the next 200-250 years of present levels of CO2 emissions can vey easily raise the atmospheric levels to eight fold of its present value (IPCC, 2007). Synthesis: It has been established beyond doubt that atmospheric CO2 are rising, and also contributing to the rise in global temperatures. However the issue of this temperature rise being a threat to the planet Earth is untrue. This conclusion is based on the level of our understanding of the climatic changes and its repercussions, which are still preliminary. While general circulation models do indicate that a speculated 300 to 600ppm of rise in CO2 concentrations will lead to a rise in global mean temperatures of a few degrees; natural experiments designed keeping in mind the real world situations suggest a rise of only a fraction of a degree in temperature under the same set of conditions (Idso, 1998). The importance of real world based natural experiments is underlined by the fact that natural processes are too intricate and interrelated. Omitting or overlooking even a single factor may prevent us from arriving at a correct assessment of the situation. Hence general circulation models are ill equipped to explain the complexities of nature and climate. The global warming phenomenon predicted to be a threat occurs simultaneously with many other phenomenon which too occur as a consequence of rise in levels of green house gases and still counteract. A rise in temperature leads to rise in the intensity of planetary cooling influences, which would have the obvious effect of negating the global warming effect tremendously. Most of these phenomenon were in past feebly understood, but researches in recent years have revealed their significance. Also these planetary cooling forces too, like greenhouse effect, are intesified by rise in CO2 levels. Moreover, these forces have been revealed to have enough influence so as to diminish the CO2 levels and keep it completely under control. Finally, the studies of global warming and greenhouse gases have not given due credit to the role of clouds in counteracting the warming process (Pilewskie & Valero, 1995). The final evidence in support of the fact that that Earth is not warming at the rate at which it had been projected to comes from the report of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Christy et al., 2003). The report calculated the wide discrepancies in the measures of temperature obtained from surface data and satellite data. It clearly states that in the period between 1958 and 1979, the global temperatures rose at the rate of 0.12 degree celsius per decade, while in the period since 1979 the rise was 0.16 degrees. In tropics too this rise was only 0.11 and 0.13 degrees respectively for the two periods, which was much lesser than has been shown by the circulation models followed in climatology. Thus, proving that Earth after all is not 'heating up'. Finally, our study methods are still too simple to encompass the complexities that have been helping nature adapt, survive and develop for centuries. Since we cannot reproduce the factors that led to present situation, we depend on whatever data is available for that period, the reliability of which we can never be sure about. And long term data is essential for understanding the cause and effect of climatic changes, without which our assessment will always be speculative; e.g. to derive a valid conclusion on runoff, deficit and surplus conditions; and therefore on global warming issues, we need more comprehensive data, gathered for a longer period of time. Besides, the data needs to be more exhaustive. We need definite data not only on annual basis but also on seasonal and daily basis, for e.g. we need to know in which part of the year precipitation is more and when less compared to preexisting trends; or which season shows increase or decrease in runoff and by how much. Only then we will be able to prepare a consolidated chart of global warming effects. We also require information on other climatic factors such as topography, soil conditions, and also vegetation of the area. These factors also form the feedback factors, i.e. as a result of global warming there are changes in soil conditions, flora etc, and the altered conditions may further modify the influence of global warming. Conclusively, nature is known to adapt with changing climatic and other environmental conditions. How it may change is purely speculative, and the new set of situations and nature’s reaction to them is hypothetical. For now all that can be clearly stated is that the temperature of Earth today and the rate at which it is rising is still comparable to the medival age preceeding the little ice age, and that age has been known to be an age of prosperity and growth in terms of economy, agriculture, longevity and development. Thus, it is only appropriate to say that “global warming is not a threat to planet Earth.” References 1. Bradley, R. S. & Jones, P. D. (1993). ‘Little ice age’ Summer temperature variations: their nature and relevance to recent global warming trends. Holocene, 3, 367-376. 2. Cherif, A. H. & Adams, G. E. (1994). Planet Earth: Can other planets tell us where we are going? The American Biology teacher JSTOR.56(1), 26-37. 3. Christy, J. R., R. W. Spencer, W. B. Norris, W. D. Braswell, & D. E. Parker. (2003). Error Estimates of Version 5.0 of MSU–AMSU Bulk Atmospheric Temperatures. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 20(5), 613–629. 4. Idso, S. B. (1998). CO2-induced global warming: a skeptic’s view of potential climate change. Climate Research. 10, 69-82. 5. IPCC, (2007), Climate Change 2007: Impacts adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the Fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental Panel on climate change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge university Press. 6. IPCC, (1990). Climate change 1990.Impacts assessment of climate change. Contribution of working group II to the first assessment report of the IPCC. Retrieved from http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.shtml. 7. Pilewskie, P. & Valero, F. P. J. (1995). Direct observations of excess solar absorption by clouds. Science. 267, 1626-29. 8. Wallington, T. J., Srinivasan, J., Nielsen, O. J. & Highwood, E. J. (2004). Greenhouse gases and global warming, in Environment and ecological chemistry, (Ed. Aleksandar Sabjic), in Encyclopedia of life support systems (EOLSS), Developed under the Auspices of the UNESCO, Oxford, UK: Eolss publishers. Read More