Food Security in China - Grain Policy - Research Paper Example

Food Security in China - Grain Policy Introduction While China is one of the world’s biggest economies, its food security is presently under threat from a variety of factors, these include; rising demand, extreme rate of urbanization and shortage of natural resources and labor. China is has for decades showed determination to handle the food security situation by sourcing for most of its grain supply from within as opposed to importing. To this end, every January, the communist government releases a document known as the “number one document” in which the policies and priority issues for the year are provided. It had been hoped that in the year 2014, given the immense challenges facing food security in the country the policy on imported grain would be reduced and hopefully more food from abroad allowed. This is however not to be, the document has focused on the developing of modern agriculture as the solution to the food security problem, and laid out guidelines dictating how the countryside should be governed. According to the document, China would continue to strive to achieve basic grain sufficiency and maintains the long standing 95% target to that effect. While increase in oversee markets may be allowed, the amounts of imports are still highly regulated and the state has made it clear it has no intentions of relaxing domestic production in for the sake of imported food anytime soon. Admittedly, although it should be equated the highest priority, food security cannot be equated to actual grain self-sufficiency. Today, China currently has the second largest population of undernourished people which is about 11 % of their population , for China to get on the road to food security it is critical that they strike a balance between grain self-sufficiency and food security. Background Despite its phenomenal economic success, the scarcity of agriculture resources in China seem to be in inversely proportional with its rapidly growing Industrial based GDP. This is however entirely a result of poor performance in the agricultural sector, in fact, quite on the contrary it has been making improvements albeit not very major ones. The sector has been suffering from the daunting task of feeding a third of the world population under the Beijing grain security policy which insists on near self-sufficiency even in the face of a scarce resource base making it impossible for food import to be used to offset the food crisis (Mao 1). Post ex factor food policies in China have often reflected the pragmatism of the communist governments over the course of the last one and a half decade. The government of China’s apparent obsession with food security and sufficiency is motivated by the great famine which is one of the most catastrophic events to hit china in the 21st century. On the backdrop of the great leap forward, over 30 million people starved to death and this catastrophe henceforth served to be major factor in the shaping of agricultural policies to date. Prior to the reforms, farming was done through communal work as people would form communes of around 5000 each and they would work together in a system fully controlled by the state government which provided for everything including market and inputs. However the reforms saw to the abolishment of the commune system and the introduction of the Household responsibility system (HRS) in which prices and the market were the main drivers in as far as land use and production decisions were concerned (Brandt et al 8). As a result, food has become a central consideration for many Chinese people today since a good number have felt the effect of its scarcity first hand. However, following the death of Mao Zedong, food was more plentiful as the government adopted agricultural reforms allowing farmers to sell their products in the market and applying previously discovered technologies in agriculture (Naughton et al 114). Although the country has been able to produce most of what it needs for domestic consumption the population growth threatens to undermine the achievements. In the recent past, quite a great deal of research has gone onto the studies of food supply and demand in china, Bach, Martin and Stevens (3) uses a computer general equilibrium model to make projections in the consistent macro-economic framework. This is designed to address the prose response from the excess demand in food crops, trade patterns between agricultural producers and overall equilibrium responses from other sectors that are affected or affect the agricultural sector he predicts that by the year 2013, the country will have a deficit of as much as 200 million tonnes of grain. Others have estimated the countries import of grain will be range between 40 to 100 million. While the Chinese government has for many years remained hostile to the ideal of trade liberalization citing quite reasonably, the diminishing of self-sufficiency that is likely to ensure if tariff were lowered to allow other countries to compete in the local market, some studies have suggested the negativity may be overstated. At the end of the day, the effect of liberalization on food security is mostly pegged on the response of the Chinese market and stakeholders to future policies, ego assuming that it would be harmful is not necessarily correct since it has been proven in many other sectors and countries that liberalization can also be beneficial to local economies if efficiently managed. At the end of the day, most of the research shows that given the nation’s current policy, in the grain situation will be considerably grim in the near future and china Chinas loss of self-sufficiency in posterity appears to be a foregone conclusion. Majority of the current research is drawn from simple extrapolations and a single country model of supply and demand projections, equilibrium frameworks have also been partially used in some cases. Disparities in agricultural production Retrospectively, there have been numerous studies dedicated to the study of the grain population in China predating and postdating the 1978 reform, majority of these have however focused on the entire country as opposed to various geographical areas making them too general to be particularly reliable. In addition, some of the issues that weigh in on food security such as the variations of the areas based on geographical and social economic composition have been rarely addressed. As a result of such variations, they have experienced significant disparities in the production of grain on a regional level and even after the reform the decentralized production management as well as unequal pace of progress and reform in the county has contributed to the intensification of disparities (Mao and Xiaojing 5). Geographically, the south and coastal areas have experienced significant levels of development in the rural economic setup, this has been accompanied with a considerable rise in the opportunity cost for grain production as well as a substantive reduction in arable land as a result of urbanization and the growth of industrial an inevitably residential areas. Conversely, in the northeast and North West regions, the rate of progression for the rural economy has been slow and as a result, grain production as opposed to industrial activity remains a mainstay for the rural economic setting. Furthermore, given that different crops tend to do well in some areas and badly in others, the differences in regional climate and topography has over the years been a contributing factor to the uneven rates of grain production. For most part during the reform period, the output of grain has experienced exponential growth with the total output rising from an average of 304.77 tons in 1978 from 466.62 in 1995 which is an increment of about 53%. Notwithstanding, the seemingly phenomenal growth in the production rate, the increment has not been steady and in reality most of the change took place only a few years after the reform, in contemporary times, the rate of growth has been on the most part stagnant. It is notable that of the course of the last half century, China’s population has grown to such an extent that it is currently home to around 20% of the human population, however, given the severe constraints it faces, it only has about 8% of the world’s arable land on which it is expected to feed the clearly un-proportional number of people. The challenges that it has experienced in food production are not however just internal, given the rate at which the world is globalizing, China has been forced to play a major role not just in its own but the worlds food security. Furthermore, the last few decades have seen China rise to the level of one of the world’s industrial powerhouses which is actually only second to the USA (Bransetter and Lardy 668). As a result there are emerging issues of urbanization climate change and education that have directly and indirectly contributed to the food security challenge. Technology Adaptation While today the government of China has taken notable steps in harnessing technology for agricultural development, the same cannot be said of the year’s immediately after the reforms, in fact, one of the major retrospective problems in respect to food security can be identified as lack of technological innovation (Godfray 815). Without a doubt new technologies and their adaptation is a major driver for growth in the agricultural and indeed any sector, a study carried out by Huang and Rozzelle in 1996 showed that the increase in rice yields between 1978 and 1990 was a result of new technologies (Huang and Rozzelle 340). However, these technologies were not developed during the reform but rather implemented, in reality they had been developed in the 50s and 60s. During the reform period, in as much as there was considerable attention and investment made in the agricultural sector by the state very few new technologies were developed. Therefore, the growth in agriculture riding on the old technologies would continue up to the late 80s and early 90s and at that point stagnate, case to point, despite the remarkable increase in rice production between 1978 and 1985; afterwards the production capacity seemed to stagnate (Findlay 13). The was however a significant growth in technology in respect to maize production in the 1980’s which brought about the concentration of techniques which resulted in higher yield such as plastic film covers and hybrid maize technology. Nonetheless, since the 90’s there has been no major breakthrough in the center and the increase in maize production noticeably went down in the mid and late 90’s as well as the initial years of the 21st century. Taking cognizance of the potential impact of lack of innovation, in the last 20 years the Chinese government has taken major steps to apply technology in agriculture with an aim of boosting food security. For example, through development of hybrid rice varieties, China has managed to reduce the area of land on which the rice is grown from 34.4 million ha to 29.4 ha in 2008, conversely the yields on the smaller fields have improved from 137 to 197 million (Yuan 12). In fact, it is estimated that the increase in rice production in China because of Hybrid rice is equivalent to the overall production of a highly productive province (Hong 310). Due to the success in hybrid rice farming the government has also world on developing two line hybrids for other crops such as; corn, sorghum, rape, peas etc. In November 2013, the global times carried a story of a Chinese farmer who for the first time ever was able to produce over 500 kilos of wheat per mu (Roughly 0.07 ha) on a piece of land whose high saline content had often resulted in his producing between 200 and 300 in the past (Xinhua). This was because he used new seeds provided by the Chinese Academy of sciences which has been modified such that they can adapt to the harsh conditions and still be productive. Aquaculture is another front the Chinese government is approaching in the effort to apply technology to the increment of food security. “Blue lands” have been identified and scientist have been working to develop techniques that will enable farmer to grow food on water which will phenomenally increase on the amount of available arable “land”. This is evidence of the high level of commitment, the government of China has shown in modernizing agriculture which is undoubtedly because they realize that their situation is unique and old solutions may not solve the current problems. The red line according to Huang is the 120 hectares of arable land which needs must be protected so as to ensure not only food security but the farmer’s income as well as the sustainability of the agricultural practices. Today, China is one of the very few countries around the world that have increased the public spending on technology designed to improve agriculture and in the course of the last 10 years, significant developments have been made especially in respect to genetic engineering and production of low cost but high yield seed. Today, one of the main challenges facing the Chinese government in respect to agriculture involves the pollution of land water and air, due to its friendly policies on industrial development and foreign investment which has seen thousands of western companies outsource their production to China, the country is faced with an acute pollution problem. Land and Water Pollution The state has acknowledged that the industrial contamination of the environment in cities has caused severe environmental problem in the countryside where agricultural activities are based. Currently, over 3 million hectares of land in rural China has been rendered too polluted for agricultural activities due to increased industrialization the rate at which land pollution is occurring is likely to increase. A second issue with which China has to contend with in relation to its rate of industrialization and which stands to negatively affect its agricultural productivity is climate change. It is one of the most serious threats that are facing the human race and China is probable more at risk than most other countries given its sizable industrial portfolio. China’s farming industry is highly dependent on rainfall and as a result, it is extremely vulnerable to climate change with a huge population, which translates into heavy pressure on resources ecological agriculture may be one of the biggest threats to food security for the nation. The effects of climate change on agriculture are felt through alterations in the temperature, water and soil resources and extreme weather events such as floods, landslides and even pest and outbreaks (McBeath 75). At the end of the day the government of China is faced with a difficult decision to make between maintaining the status quo in industrialization or reducing the pollution levels which is likely to reduce the rate of industrialization for the sake of the climate. The environmental crisis in China can therefore directly be attributed to the country’s rapid industrialization which has given despite putting the country on the list of the most influential and powerful world powers has come at a great cost to the environment. It is ranked the world’s biggest environment pollutant with the degradation costing the nation over 9 per cent of the gross national income each year. The life expectancy in the north has reduced by 5.5 years due to pollution and there have been severe water and land contamination issues due to the release of Chlorofluorocarbons that form acid rain. The destruction of farm land as a result of increased urbanization and industrialization have become an key legislative issue for the government which is learning the hard way the cost of letting these two operate without proper assessment of the environmental damage involved. There have been proposals to legislate on land pollution in recent times with laws related to pollution more so of water and soil being strictly enforced in the backdrop of phenomenal damage to both (Chen 13). The rising temperatures which are the major future of climate change are expected to significantly reduce the production of maize rice and wheat which are among the staples in the next 20 to 50 years even with the exponential rate of population growth. Unless drastic remedial action is taken, it is quite likely that the temperatures will increase by at least 2.5 in the next 10 years. Current studies have projected that given the combination of temperature increase and the reduction of water for agriculture by the year 2050, the food production will reduce by at approximately 19% which may be a catastrophe in food security given the current rate of undernourishment. Globalization and economic developments Globalization is inextricably tied to China’s food situation and in more ways than one, the food security in China will have profound impacts on the global economy and the food security of other nations. In the past China was one of the world’s leading producers of soya beans however domestic consumption levels have upped significantly in the last decade with the production capacity decelerating and the demand is about 5 times higher than the farmers can supply as a result even with the policy in place foreign soybeans are ubiquitous in the Chinese food value chain. In modern day, despite the number one document presenting contrary information, China may be slowly following in the footsteps of countries like Taiwan and Japan which focused on industrial production and urbanization reducing their levels of food production and thus depending on imported foods. Such a trend in the Asian dragon are however likely to have far reaching global implications, consider the fact that despite the dramatic increase in rise production in the late 20th century, the China has been forced to import over 2.6 million tons of rice in the year 2012. Traditionally, China has been an exporter of rice rather than importer; therefore, the global rice market is used to weak rice purchases, and however, in light of the prevailing changes the global rice prices have skyrocketed owing to the exponential demand for the product by China. All indications point towards China importing more rice and other foods in the near future, recently there have been several food scandals concerning grain tainted with cadmium and these coupled with the high rate of land pollution are slowly eroding the trust of the Chinese people in their domestic products (Brown 8). With such hostilities towards the domestic market the food sufficiency rating are likely to further reduce and this will likely result in higher import rates, this will have far reaching implications on developing countries which import rice from the world market since the entry of China will likely cause the prices of rice to keep increasing. Ma and Adams point out that if China keeps reducing its rate of agricultural productivity and importing from the world market instead of exporting, there is a fairly good possibility that “keeping China fed may starve the rest of the world” hypothetically speaking. In comparison to the US Tyler Cowen (2002)suggest that the productivity level in China as a result of the green revolution a generation ago appears exhausted and in the same way agriculture in the US levelled off in 2002, it might in do so in China by the end of the next decade. The issue of China’s growing economy and government policy on both agriculture and urbanization has had far reaching impact on the state of food security. Today, the almost 50% of China’s population is made up of city dwellers and this is the first time ever this has happened starting in 2012. According to Chen, the rate of Chinas urbanization is projected to keep escalating in the next few decades and by 2030, the urban population will be in excess of 60% (Chen 2). While acknowledging the many benefits of urbanization, it is expected to have a series of negative impacts especially in respect to scarcity of resources and environmental degradation. This is especially in view of the fact that the urbanization will undoubtedly result in a significant change in the physical environment beyond city limits which will result in the loss of natural habitats and climate change not to mention supernormal levels of pollution which are already evident today. The national policy under president Xi Jinping and his premier require that food security should be prioritized since more people are set to move into towns and they will be fully dependent on the country dwellers for food. The question of who will till the land in the face of a reduction in the number of famers is a recurring theme for the national government while Chinas total grain production is estimated to have reached 602 million tons in the last year which is an improvement of 2.1% the share of agriculture in the gross domestic product is slowly being overshadowed by other sectors such as the industrial. In the last year, the manufacturing industry grew by around 7.8 per cent while the service industry also known as the tertiary sector went up by 8.3 %. This goes to show the rate with which agriculture is being overshadowed by the rest of the sectors which is a worrying trend especially given that the pollution and labor shortage resulting from industrial sector can be directly attributed to the inhibition of growth in the agricultural sector. Conclusion In summary, it is evident that China stands at a crossroads in as a far as food security is concerned, they have to make a decision on whether they should undermine their industrialization agenda in favor or relax the restrictions on grain importation policy. It is abundantly clear that Chinas current population growth rate as well as the implications of pollution on land and water contamination is posing a major threat to the stability of China in terms of food security. The intensity of industrialization much of which is spurred by globalization continues to negatively impact on the capacity of China to feed its own doe to climate change as well as an increase in the levels of non-arable land. It is projected that despite the countries hard line stand on self-sufficiency unless radial measures are taken to recover the damaged land and manage urbanization, China may have to open its boarders for food imports of face policy induced famine. The government is however taking remedial action by raising awareness and trying to comply with the UN’s requirements for the reduction of pollution as well as putting emphasis on technological techniques of improving yields on smaller pieces of land or even on water. At the end of the day the Chinese government is faced with the daunting task of coming up with ways through which food security and the sustenance of policies as well as industrial growth can be balanced with the global village closely watching the security or lack of whereof in China will ultimately affect the global economic and food situation in the long run. Works Cited Bach, Christian.F., Martin, Will and Stevens, Jennifer. China and the WTO: Tariff offers, exemptions and welfare Implications. Forthcoming in Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv. 3 (1996), pp. 409-431. Brandt, Loren et al. "China's Great Transformation", in Brandt, Loren; Rawski, G. 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