Predictions of How Climate Change May Impact On Climate - Report Example

Predictions of How Climate Change May Impact On Climate (Rainfall and Runoff) The student’s full name . University Date: Impact of Climate Change Changes of climate have been experienced over years and it is predicted that the global main temperature will increase by 3oC due to increase in green house houses. This will affect positively and negatively on the lives of human beings. It is expected that there will be increase in temperature, increase in circulation air, altering of the quality of water and related resources due to increased flooding, length of drought, high runoffs, altering river flows, and affecting infrastructure. This means that climate change will require a global change to ensure that the change does not negatively impacts the life individuals. Climatically change can lead into increase in rainfall or temperature which may result in ice, snow, glacier lakes Rapid Changes in Global Temperature, Climate and Weather Cycles Moreover, skepticism about mankind’s involvement in the current global warming has also questioned whether people should be alarmed by the situation. According to the skeptics, there are no sufficient proofs to prove that global warming calls for immediate action. One can respond to this by maintaining that there are substantial evidences and signs that capture the scope and reality of the problem on global warming. Foremost among these are the rapid changes in the average temperature of the earth (Haldar, 2011 p. 3). Aside from increasing temperature, disturbing changes on climate and weather conditions also account for the severity of global warming. Looking at the situations experienced by nations and continents in the recent periods, it can be construed that global warming is certainly affecting the weather cycles. Massive storms resulting to flash floods hit various nations in the world including China, India, Korea, Italy, Mozambique and England (Maslin, 2007 p34). There were also remarkable seasonal variations observed in many parts of the world. For instance, the 2000 to 2001 winter season was recorded to be the wettest months in the history of Britain since the pattern began in the eighteenth century (Maslin, 2007 p34). In the United States and other parts of the American continent, hurricanes have become more common than they were hundreds of years ago. Floods have been alternated by severe droughts in many regions. There were also recorded storm surges in the North Atlantic Ocean which have been very active in the last 40 years. To reiterate, the severity of these patterns has not been observed in the earlier days of the earth and this only goes to show that something is alarming about the present global warming scenario. Retreat of Glaciers and Changes in the Oceans and Seas Another major effect of global warming that proves that the phenomenon is going at an alarming rate is the retreat of glaciers. Due to an increase in surface temperature of the earth, portions of ice sheets in the polar region have vanished. Packs of snow found in the seas of northern and southern hemispheres have declined over the years. The melting of glaciers in the mountains, according to scientists, also manifests the effect of global warming. In fact, Archer notes that “the most visual indication of climate change is the melting of mountain glaciers” (2012, p. 138). In one British study, it was found that glaciers are sinking in the Eastern Himalayan region (Booker, 2010 p 258). Mountainous regions in Europe are also affected by the current global warming and the effects are projected to be more pronounced in the following decades. These are clear indications that global warming is an actual, visible phenomenon. The melting of glaciers and ice sheets has connected consequences to oceans and seas. Basically, as these solids melt into their liquid form, the volume adds up to the water. In the recent decades, the rise of sea levels has been estimated to be about the 0.2 cm per year and this figure continues to increase as glaciers are retreating (Haldar, 2011 p28). The rise of sea levels cannot be simply excluded from the warning signs of global warming because, similar to the other evidences discussed earlier, the changes are rapid. The increase of sea levels has been connected as well to incidence of massive flooding. Other changes in sea/ocean conditions related to global warming include acidification of oceans which started since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution and consequently to the depletion of oxygen which has adverse effects on various life forms found in oceans, seas and other bodies of water. Effects to the Flora, Fauna and Whole Ecosystem Speaking of life forms, effects of global warming on plant and animal species and the entire ecosystem are also considered as evidences which indicate that the phenomenon is not simply part of earth’s natural cycle. First and foremost, environmental and climate conditions play a key role in maintaining the biodiversity and life patterns of both plants and animals. The most common changes happening recently involves plants that are flowering earlier than expected, birds laying their eggs sooner and mammals ending their hibernation periods earlier than usual. Distribution of species has been affected because species react to climate conditions. It was shown, for instance, that most migratory birds have moved northwards which only means that their original habitats are not anymore suitable for survival. On the other hand, some species of plants that are sensitive to warm weather have also declined in number. In general, global warming poses a direct threat on many terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems. The ongoing extinction of wildlife species is an example of how global warming makes the present condition unbearable for many animals. Studies also indicate that because global warming has caused the decline of ice through which polar bears thrive and hunt for food, these animals have become notably skinnier. Polar bears are very sensitive to sea ice melting because of biological dependency to this habitat; the continued decline of ice masses in the polar region has reported cases of local extinction of these animals (Archer, 2012, p. 165). Meanwhile, a phenomenon called “bleaching” indicates that coral reefs such as those in Haiti have been affected as well by the warming of the oceans (Archer, 2012, p. 165). This event causes the death of corals which, in turn, affects marine life. These are only examples of how global warming affects the ecosystem on the current scale. Implications to Humans Of course, humans can also see and feel the impacts of global warming in various aspects of life. According to Archer, the most visible implication of the phenomenon on human welfare connects to its effect on worldwide water supply and availability (2012, p. 165). The earth is literally drier in the current period than it was in the beginning of the twentieth century because of increasing surface temperatures. A body of literature suggests that there has been a decline in freshwater supply in almost all continents (Haldar, 2011. p32). The lack of water supply exacerbates in cases of extreme drought periods which affects land farming and other agricultural activities. In line with this, the aggregate effects of global warming also impact food supply. Even though warm temperatures can help grow crops rapidly, exceeding temperatures beyond the crop’s capacity also leads to a decline in harvest. Within the economic precepts, changes in the quantity of production have inverse effects on the price. Thus, if the food harvest decrease, food prices escalates, and this has been happening in many areas of the world, particularly in countries affected by extreme drought. Moreover, global warming has negative repercussions on human health. Estimates made by the World Health Organization show that global warming caused the deaths of around 150,000 people in the year 2000 and the number may continue to rise if the present trends would continue (Singer and Avery, 2007). Heat waves happening in many regions in the world cause illness and death tolls from triggering asthma attacks, heart attacks and certain diagnoses linked to heat stroke. When global warming causes shifts in weather, say from very humid condition to extreme rainfall, cases of cough and colds also increase. Vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever are also reported to be common especially during massive floods, characterized by stagnant water (Schmidt, Shelley and Bardes, 2012 p583). Studies have generally shown that because global warming predisposes humans to illness and life-threatening diseases, the overall life expectancy has also declined at varied estimates. In any case, the consequences of global warming negatively manifest to humans similar to all the other life forms affected. Challenges and Impediments While the majority of the scientific community has managed to form a consensus that the kind of global warming today is more on made-made causes than natural earth cycle, critics still maintain that the phenomenon is not alarming. Gore describes that many skeptics periodically launch attacks on the evidences of global warming, arguing that the “signs” are either exaggerated or non-definitive (2006 p65). The continued disputes between global warming believers and non-believers have been subject to political and legislative discussions. In the United States, “global warming has emerged as something of a political litmus test, as partisan debates over big government, taxes and abortion” (Des Jardins, 2012 p 5). The issue has been highly politicized between the two clashing forces of the Democrats and Republicans. Because the decision on the issue is very segmentized, legislations that would have initiated concrete solutions to the problem are still non-existent. This presents a major challenge to forming necessary interventions to mitigate global warming. Potential advantage and disadvantages of sand gravel and heavy clay on water quality Sand - Sand provides water that is clean since its able to clean up and remove impurities as water pass through it. This is because of its permeability and ability to allow water to percolate easily and it has a medium transmissivity(Stormwater Quality BMP, 1999). The disadvantages of sand is that it does not hold water that is ,a poor storage of water. Gravel - Gravel has high permeability which allows water to move the created section at high discharge rate. This will provide clean water. Gravel allows water to find its own level since it is able to flow without hindrances thus it is not a confining aquifer. This makes gravel have the ability to allow water move from high levels to low levels. However gravel has a disadvantage of a likelihood of loosing water since it has high porosity which allows water to be moved and recovery becomes difficult Heavy clay- Is a good storage since it’s not permeable and does not allow water to move easily from one level to another. One of the advantages is that water does not seek to have it’s own water level. Secondly the water that comes is not purified. It is not easy to drill and have water because of heavy clay. The flow of water from such a soil is slow and can be to one direction where there is a way. They can not be called aquifer because of its porosity and transmissivity of water(Stormwater Quality BMP, 1999). B). Pump test In calculating Darcy’s k the following formula is used. K = Where Q is the yield rate which is 0.02m3/s or 1728m3/d, r1 is the radius of well one which is 20m and r2 is the radius of well two and is 30m. h1 is the height for the first observation which is 10m while h2 is height for the second observation which is 12.88m. K = = 3.385m2/d In calculating transmissivity, the following formulae is used K = (Well Hydraulics) K = = 10.63m2/day The material has high permeability and is good for allowing water flow from one confined area to another. It can also provide clean water as the rate of permeability is not high to allow large impurities to pas through. Warning sign Probability of being correct scenario Reason for probability rating. Very low Fishing site The area do like a river which can have fish but it is in a forest low Tourism site It is surrounded by forests and it is a valley. High River raises up because of glacier and ice melting If they are glaciers, they maybe very far Very high Flooding area It looks like it is a valley, which means it collects water from the high side and the surrounding forest during the rain season. Water may rise when it has rained in another area which is far from the valley. There is a possibility of intense thunderstorms and the surrounding rocks are impermeable B).Flooding Area The area looks like a valley with vegetation covering the hills that are very steep. The reason why water can rise up and fall rapidly is because of soil permeability and stream density. When there is high rainfall from the surrounding areas, water will be collected into the river because the soil is less permeable. The first diagram shows where water rises and falls rapidly while the second diagram shows rise and fall slowly; The other reason is that, the drainage basin appears to be smaller thus creating a small lag time. The surrounding environment may have saturated soil which does not allow permeability of water. Te graph below shows the hydrographical of the area From the graph below adapted from Earlston High school (2012) shows how the flow channel of the river operates. If there is continues rainfall, the ground will be saturated and any afterward rain. The graph indicates there is a change in water level after some time (Earlston High School, 2012) When the ground water is saturated and there is rain there will be a runoff which will cause rise in the level of water in the river. This is what forms peaks discharge cause rapid or turbulent and this takes a short time (Earlston High School, 2012) . References Archer, D. (2012). Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast, Second Edition. Hoboken, NY: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Booker, C. (2010). The Real Global Warming Disaster. New York, NY: Continuum International Publishing Group. Chaudhry, M.H. (2008). Open-Channel Flow. New York: Springer, Des Jardins, J. R.(2012). Environmental Ethics, Fifth Edition. Boston, MA: Wadsworth Cengage Learning. Earlston High School, 2012. Hydrosphere. 8th May, 2011 from Ewater (2012). Appendix A: Rainfall-Runoff Modelling, 8th May, 2011 from < http://training.ewater.com.au/file.php/1/HTML/index.html?appendix_a_rainfall-runoff_mod.htm> Fisher, K. (2001). Handbook for assessment of hydraulic performance of environmental channels. Report No. SR 490. HR Wallingford Freshwater Scentific services, 2012. 2012 Rainfall, Runoff, Water Level & Temperature- Beebe Lake – Wright County, 8th May, 2011 from Haldar, I., (2011). Global Warming: The Causes and Consequences. New Delhi: Mind Melodies. JBA (2006) Hydraulic Performance of River bridges and Other Structures at High Flows, Phase 2: Afflux Estimator User Manual, Environment Agency R & D Project: W5A-065, Bristol, UK. Maslin, M. (2007). Global Warming: Causes, Effects, and the Future. St. Paul, MN: MBI Publishing Company, LLC. Miguez, M. G., Veról, A. P. & Carneiro, P. R, (2012). Sustainable Drainage Systems: An Integrated Approach, Combining Hydraulic Engineering Design, Urban Land Control and River Revitalisation Aspects. Intech Europe McGahey , C., Samuels, P.G., Knight, D. & O'Hare, M.T. (2008). Estimating river flow capacity in practice, Journal of Flood Risk Management, 1(1), 23-33. Novak, P. Guinot, V. Jeffrey, A. & Reeve, D., (2010). Hydraulic Modelling – An Introduction: Principles, Methods and Applications. Spon Press, London River Restoration Centre (2002) Manual of River Restoration Techniques, RRC. 8th May, 2011 from Schmidt, S. W., Shelley, M. & Bardes, B. (2012). American Government and Politics Today 2011-2012. Boston, MA: Wadsworth Cengage Learning. Singer, S. F. & Avery, D.T., (2007). Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years. Lanham, Maryland: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc. Stormwater Quality BMP, (1999). Sand filter Extended Destion basin MANUAL 8th May, 2011 from US Army Corps of Engineers (2010) HEC-RAS River Analysis System, version 4.1, Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, CA. Weart, S.R. (2008). The Discovery of Global Warming. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Well Hydraulics accessed on 8th May, 2011 from Read More