Global Warming: The Cause of Human Activity - Essay Example

Outline Introduction 2. The history and investigation of global warming causes 2 Joseph Furrier's supposition 2.2 Researches of Simon Tatt'sgroup 2.3 Research of Humphrey Crick and Timothy Sparks 3. The real danger of global warning in the future and the preventive measures 3.1 Political measures 3.2 A computer model of climate fluctuations 4. The opposite point of view adduced by Richard W. Ressler 5. Conclusion Global Warming: The cause of human activity The problem under consideration is human activity as a main cause of global warming. I consider this issue to be one of the actual, because at the accumulation of evidences of the fact that terrestrial atmosphere becomes warmer and warmer, the main question is: who is guilty in this warming - people or nature Today this question becomes clearer for the scientists. First it is essential to turn to the history. As long ago as in 1827 French physicist Joseph Furrier assumed that the atmosphere of the ground carries out a function of some kind of a glass in a hothouse: air leaks solar heat, and does not let it evaporate back in space. And he was right. This effect is reached due to some atmospheric gases of secondary importance for example, water evaporations and carbonic gas. They leak visible and "near" infrared light, emitted by the sun, but absorb the "far" infrared radiation with lower frequency formed at heating of the earth surface by solar beams. If it did not occur, the Earth would be approximately 30 degrees colder, than now, and life on it would practically stop. ("Global Warming") Recognizing that a "natural" hothouse effect is the settled, balanced process, it is quite logical to assume, that the increase of concentration of "hothouse" gases in an atmosphere should result in strengthening of a hothouse effect which in turn will result in global warming of a climate. Amount of 2 in atmosphere steadily grows for more than century because various kinds of fossil fuel (coal and petroleum) began to be applied widely as a source of energy. Besides as a result of human activity other hothouse gases, for example methane, nitrous oxide, and a lot of chlorine-containing substances also get in an atmosphere. In spite of the fact that they are made in smaller volumes, some of these gases are more dangerous than carbonic gas from the point of view of global warming. ("Global Warming") Now many scientists believe that additional proofs of man's fault in global warming will be found out, moreover, human activity is the dominant factor in this process. Nevertheless global warming are caused also by not dependent on people reasons. For example, amplification of solar radiation and sulphatic sparks or aerosols ejected at volcanic eruptions. These emissions on the one hand may create a hothouse effect, and on the other hand they may cool an atmosphere as they reflect sunlight. Influence of human activity is connected, first of all, with the emission of the used industrial gases such as carbonic, holding warm in an atmosphere and the same sulphatic aerosols of industrial, not natural origin. The complex of industrial aerosols and hothouse gases also creates new climatic model. This popular idea in the scientific environment resulted in that scientists now are inclined to evaluate the influence of the person on the climate more critically. Earlier, the warming of a climate in 20-th century was considered to be mostly caused by the natural reasons not by the activisation of human activity. The group of researchers led by Simon Tatt found out that the increase of average temperature in the beginning of 20-th century could be explained by the increase of solar activity, or a combination of this factor with growth of emission of industrial gases in an atmosphere. But, since the middle of 70th years that is after almost 50-years of temperature rising, the industrial gases creating a hothouse effect are more and more considered to be a principal cause of warming. Many other researchers also came to the same conclusion "Researches of Simon Tatt's group have filled in one more white stain in a climatic puzzle" - said Tom Wigglier from the National Centre of Atmospheric researches in Colorado. - "Though we are still very far from a final solution of the problem of warming, we are going the right way". Tom Wigglier was the main author of the part of the Intergovernmental Council report in 1995, which described the role of human activity in global warming. He said that today he would make stronger accent on the fatal activity of the person. He spoke about that at the scientific conference organized by the Washington research organization " Future Resources". However, other participants of this conference were more cautious in judgements. For example, a professor of Illinois university, Michael Shlessinger thinks, that the science has no sufficient knowledge of amplitude of natural climatic fluctuations yet, especially about solar radiation and consequently it is impossible to measure a share of influence of the person on global warming. This point of view is shared also by other expert, climatologist Ronald Prinn from Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Meantime global warming becomes more obvious and its influence more dangerous. Scientists from Massachusetts and Arizona universities reconstructed the diagram of changes of average annual temperature in Northern hemisphere for last one thousand years. And at all approximateness of calculations it is clear that 20th century is the warmest in the whole millennium. And the warmest years in this century are 1990-2000, with the peak in 1998. No matter what reasons of warming are, even minor alteration of temperature on a planet changes the behaviour of flora and fauna. The journal "Nature" tells about scientific researches of Humphrey Crick from the British Trust of Ornithologists and Timothy Sparks from the Institute of Earth Ecology in Cambridgeshire, England. The basis of research was the nesting of 20 kinds of birds in the Great Britain. It was found out, that in the process of warming birds began to lay eggs all earlier. It means, that meteorologically spring in Northern hemisphere comes earlier and earlier. Also there are some evidences of the autumn coming later. (Nature 432) In the other research observed in "Nature", it was revealed that according to the analysis of the carbonic gas bubbles contained in samples of ice from the Antarctic ice cover, today the concentration of holding warm carbonic gas is higher than ever in the last 420 thousand years, To be exact it is 20 % higher, than in warmest times of glacial periods, and two times as high as than during ice age. (Nature 432) If emissions of the gases promoting a hothouse effect do not decrease, the concentration of carbonic gas in an atmosphere will grow, and the temperature on a planet will rise. According to the forecast by 2100 the temperature on the Earth will rise by 1-3 degrees centigrade. Thus, global warming will not stop by 2100. For comparison: the temperature on the Earth increased by 2,5-4,5 degrees centigrade since the times of last glacial age, that is for 20 thousand years. If the warming go at a present pace, it will cause very serious climatic and ecological changes, including shifts of climatic zones, amplification of thermal waves, warming of northern winters, augmentation of rainfall during rains and more severe droughts in droughty times, rise of a sea level with gradual flooding the small island states. It will cause resettlement of tens millions people not only from islands, but also from coastal areas in which destructive hurricanes and storms will storm more often. "The alternative is dismal and frightening. A recent report from the National Climatic Data Center predicts ever harsher droughts, floods, heat waves, and tropical storms as the atmosphere continues to warm." (Gelbspan 62) During rather long time scientists in their scientific debate concentrated on a question how much warmer the global climate will become if emissions of carbonic gas in an atmosphere increase twice. Some considered that influence of industrial gases will be not too great, but the majority supported the opinion that for 20 years 50% increase of concentration of gases in a terrestrial atmosphere will result in warming by 1,5- 4 degrees centigrade. The number of the scientists considering that a share of influence of human activity on global warming is constantly increasing has recently grown. Ross Gelbspan writes: "For the last 10,000 years, these natural "carbon sinks" have maintained atmospheric carbon levels of about 280 parts per million. Since the late 19th century, however, human use of coal and oil has escalated dramatically, leading to our present atmospheric carbon level of about 360 parts per million--a level not experienced in 420,000 years. In a blow to the United States' hope that planting forests in developing countries could absolve it of the need to conserve energy, Hadley's researchers found that photosynthesis slows as the climate warms. Plants' absorption of [CO.sub.2] diminishes, and soils begin to release more carbon than they absorb, turning what had been carbon sinks into carbon sources. "(Gelbspan 62) These anxieties met an appropriate reaction from the part of the politicians. The world community started a struggle against global warming in 1992, when in Rio de Janeiro Framework Convention on Climate Change providing reduction of emissions of so-called hothouse gases, first of all CO2, was signed. This resulted in singing of the Kyoto Protocol according to which the part of countries - participants take over the collective obligation to reduce emission of "hothouse" gases by 5% by 2008-2012 in comparison with a level of 1990 as a base. But now this plan causes some doubts: "The United Kingdom last year committed to reductions of 12.5 percent by 2010, and a royal commission is calling for 60 percent cuts by 2050. Germany is also considering 50 percent cuts. Holland--a country at particular risk from rising sea levels--just completed a plan to slash its emissions by 80 percent in the next 40 years. It will meet those goals through an ambitious program of wind-generated electricity, low-emission vehicles, photovoltaic and solar installations, and other noncarbon energy sources. And a number of developing countries are voluntarily installing solar, wind, and small-scale hydro projects, despite their exemption under the Kyoto Protocol from the first round of cuts." (Gelbspan 62) In general it is necessary to note, that though for last 100 years it became warmer on the whole planet on average, this warm was distributed geographically irregularly. As a result of interferences of the most various factors, in some areas rise in temperature is not felt, and in others heat seems apocalyptical. During recent researches the group of the British scientists led by Simon Tatt created a computer model of fluctuations of a climate of the Earth on the basis of the previous researches concerning solar activity and concentration of aerosols, of both volcanic, and an industrial origin. Influence of each of these factors separately and all of them together on global warming of a climate was simulated. Such computer models are created since 70th years. However, with all the evidences there are some people who do not believe in global warming at all. Richard W. Ressler wrote in his article: "First of all, global warming is a theory, not a scientific reality. Studies supposedly proving the validity of the global-warming theory have been shown to have had serious flaws in scientific method and the conclusions reached. Computer models were used to predict climate change and historical data not helpful to reaching the global warming conclusion were disregarded. That's not scientific; that's cooking the books. Temperature readings were taken in urban areas where concrete and asphalt retain heat from the sun, thus giving researchers a false positive on global warming. It's like measuring air pollution by putting collection devices next to your chimney with a roaring fire in the fireplace and then scaring people with your "scientific" findings." And he added: "As for me, I refuse to be stampeded into believing that climate change is either potentially catastrophic or caused by human activity when honest scientific evidence simply doesn't exist. The Earth may be cooling, not warming, based on this summer's temperature data. So, why isn't National Geographic looking into the possibility of a coming ice age Wouldn't that be an appropriate use of the "scientific approach"" ("Global Warming Disputed") The struggle of two opposite scientific hypotheses according to which in one case natural force, and in the other a man and his industry is guilty in global warming, does not cease. Simply now the pan is a bit declined aside those who accuse human activity in warming. However supporters of this point of view are still far from a full victory. As for me I adhere to the opinion that some places of the Earth can become warmer themselves, but the man's interference still fasten and provoke it. This interference should be possibly reduced. Works Cited 1. "Global Warming." The Columbia Encyclopedia. 6th ed. 2004 2. Gelbspan, Ross. "A Modest Proposal to STOP GLOBAL Warming." Sierra May 2001 3. "Global Warming Disputed." The Washington Times 20 Sept. 2004" 4. Human Contribution to the European Heatwave of 2003." Nature 432 December 2004 5. Michaels, Patrick J. Meltdown: The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists, Politicians, and the Media. Washington, DC: Cato Institute, 2004. Read More