The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming - Essay Example

?Introduction Today, after the incredible space missions and amazing discoveries in our Universe, the mankind pays regard again to its common home - the planet Earth. The Earth problems, their understanding and interpretation should take an important place among the fundamentals of modern scientific knowledge, as their solution largely predetermines the future of our civilization and general world outlook that define prospects for further development of society. Nowadays, we are facing the classic decision-making dilemma, choosing between scientific and political grounds. On the one hand, we have an unknown and possibly dangerous, adverse climate changes and on the other - uncertainty in the nature and causes of such changes, their costs and consequences of actions taken to respond. This is a difficult dilemma, because the effects of climate change will manifest themselves in different ways in different regions, from pole to pole. The political reasoning of the problem solution suggests that all countries need to make coordinated and deliberate actions based on special international conventions on climate change. Scientists and international scientific community are now under a tremendous pressure, as a correct identification of climate change trends and its main consequences in the future will save humanity from immense ills and, vice versa, adoption of expensive measures without sufficient scientific grounds will lead to huge economic losses. Global Warming Its easiest definition runs that global warming is a gradual increase in average temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere and oceans in the 20th and 21st centuries. Scientific judgments, expressed by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, directly supported by National Academies of Sciences of the Big Eight, say that the average temperature on Earth has risen by 0.7 ° C since the Industrial Revolution (the second half of the 18th century) and a considerable proportion of observed warming over the past 50 years was caused by human activities, primarily by gas emission (carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)), that cause the greenhouse effect (Mank 1). The increase in average global temperature led to a decrease in continental glaciers. In addition, we should expect a decrease of the permafrost zone, which presently occupies a significant part of the planet, as well as anticipate changes in the methods of management, farming, construction, etc. in the zone itself. Measurements and calculations showed that for the last 100 years mountain glaciers have decreased by approximately 2.000 cubical kilometers; the annual decline averaged 0.06% of the total mass of Alpine ice. Signs of glaciers’ degradation are observed in all regions of the Arctic, where global warming manifests itself to the maximum extent. Climate warming leads to sea levels rise. Over the past 20 years the rate of increase has doubled and reached 2.5 cm/yr. This rise promises significant environmental consequences. Saltwater intrusion in deltas of the major rivers will destroy protected habitat for wild animals and birds, spawning grounds for fish. Sea level rise will increase a probability of devastating storms. The issue of dams’ building needs to be thought through today. About 70% of the seaside is currently being destroyed as a result of natural lift of water and increasing human activities. This process will be further exacerbated by global warming. So, according to the UN Environment Program data, in the Nile Delta, for example, one-fifth of the arable land of Egypt can be flooded by rising water, which will affect about 10 million people (Mank 3). Scientists state that in addition to sea-level rise, rise of global temperature will lead to changes in the quantity and distribution of precipitation. As a result, there is a strong possibility of natural disasters such as floods, droughts, hurricanes, etc.; harvests will fall in the affected areas and will increase in other zones (due to increasing concentration of carbon dioxide). Climate warming may cause a geographic shift of species’ ranges to polar zones and increase a probability of extinction of rare species. Despite all the mentioned above arguments, some researchers believe that global warming is a myth, fiction. Some scientists reject the possibility of human influence on this process. There are scientists who do not deny the fact of warming and admit its man-made character, but do not agree that the most dangerous impact on climate is conditioned by industrial emission of greenhouse gases. It is noteworthy that the Swedish physical chemist and Nobel laureate Svante Arrhenius wrote in his book Worlds in the Making (1908) that if the content of carbon dioxide in air would double, the Earth’s surface temperature has to rise in 40 ° C. It’s established that the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere over the past 100 years has increased by 25%. During this period, global temperatures increased only in 0.7 ° C. Prognostic estimates show that by 2030-2040 (if carbon dioxide will double), the temperature will rise up in 3- 4 ° C totally (approximately 0.2 - 0.5 ° C per decade) (Michaels 26). Scientists admit that sea level rise is really going on, but at a rate of 0.6 mm. annually or 6 cm per century. At the same time, horizontal and vertical motions of coastlines are 20 mm. annually. Thus, transgression and regression of the sea are determined by tectonics to a greater extent than the rise in sea level. They state that the climate of our planet has never been the same. Paleoclimate studies have shown that the average temperature of the atmosphere was constantly changing. Periods of cooling, the so-called glacial, that occurred during the last million years, were followed by periods of warming. These cycling were caused by various reasons. But all of them were natural. This of that destabilization of solar energy falling on a surface of the planet causes a cooling effect. It is believed that glacial periods were followed by eras of warming once in a hundred thousand years. Of course, there were minor variations in average atmospheric temperature in the timespan. By all calculations, we live in a pretty warm time, which should be changed by another cold age (Allen, Seaman 14). But it’s not that easy… Today man is able to ... change the climate processes on the planet! How? We significantly altered usual concentrations of certain gases in the atmosphere by our business activities. For example, the content in air of carbon dioxide, the primary regulator of the planet’s atmospheric temperature together with water vapors, increased. So, lower atmosphere of Earth gets warmer, causing Greenhouse Effect. Thus brings up the question, an answer to which is ambiguous and controversial in detail: how this increase in temperature will affect the life of mankind? A few degrees are not a trifle. We are talking not about the weather. Temperature and climatic fluctuations are quite difference of principle. Even one degree raise of the average temperature of the Northern Hemisphere will lead, for example, to warm and slushy winters, which will become a common phenomenon. It will not certainly lead to catastrophes such as the Great Flood, but will give a hard time to many peoples of the Earth. Can we avoid climatic dangers? It is not easy to answer this question. Science, unfortunately, does not yet know all the interconnections in nature. But something is already known. Oceans, for example, are one of the main absorbers of carbon dioxide. However, contamination of water planes with oil slick has weakened its absorption function. This means that more gas remains in the atmosphere. There are other, indirect connections. Climate, in this or that way, is affected by transparency of the atmosphere, its saturation with aerosols and other gases. Or another example: the growth of agricultural use of organochlorine insecticides, ultimately, leads to an increase in the concentration of chlorine in the upper atmosphere. And chlorine, to some extent, promotes the greenhouse effect (Michaels 34). This knowledge and obvious aspirations of mankind to change the situation for the better give a certain hope. Conclusions The most eminent thinkers like Stephen William Hawking appeal to us asking not to consider the situation with climate change too pessimistic. Changes will increase gradually and perhaps humanity will be able to adapt to them. It will be able to offset some negative trends, although some measures will require huge expenditures. In any case, man must take this situation under control. We are still able to change something, if restrict our needs to reasonable, if reduce harmful emissions, which violate the established ecological equilibrium. But there is a certain risk to be late: time is fleeting fast and mankind is sometimes too clumsy in reactions and actions. Works Cited Allen, Robert, and Scott M. Seaman. “Emerging Issues: Global Warming Claims and Coverage Issues.” Defense Counsel Journal 76.1(2009):12+. Mank, Bradford. “Standing and Global Warming: Is Injury to All Injury to None?” Environmental Law 35.1(2005):1+. Michaels, Patrick. Meltdown: The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists, Politicians, and the Media. Washington, DC: Cato Institute. Place of Publication, 2004. Read More