Operations research in military/defence - Essay Example

?Report on OPERATIONS RESEARCH IN MILITARY/DEFENSE Submitted to of your of Department of School By Your Course TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Summary p.3 II. Introduction p.4 III. History p.4 IV. Theories and Applications p. 6 Decision Theory p.7 Research and Development p.8 Computing Cost p.9 Military Operations p.10 V. Problems p.11 VI. Operations Research Today p.12 VII. Conclusion p.12 VIII. References p.13 IX. Index p.14 Summary Due to the rapid development in technology today, the US military has been faced with the need to innovate and reform existing capabilities, systems, policies and tactics. This is made more complex by the impact of this same technology on other states as well - both allies and enemies. For the United States, the dilemma was partly addressed by Operations Research and its many disciplines. Fundamentally, it allowed the US military structure to make and implement highly effective and scientific decisions that resulted in the development of effective strategies, cost-effective, high performance and advanced weapon systems, among other factors that optimized its defense force in order to ensure its national security. It defined and institutionalized the role of analysis within the framework of military planning and operations. It is in this aspect wherein it is explained why the discipline is now deeply embedded in the American defense establishment. This paper explored Operations Research specifically in the American experience – in military and defense areas - beginning with its history; an explanation of the concept and its benefits, including some of the relevant theories and applications; as well as the problems with OR. The discourse underscored that Operations Research is not a new concept and that it has developed with the changing times. This aspect underscored the need for it to be continually developed and perfected. All in all, this paper discusses the importance of this field in military operations today as well as how it would influence trends in the defense industry in the future. Introduction In any kind of battle, strategy is crucial to victory. This is the reason why throughout the ages, tacticians have spent a great deal of resources and efforts in order to determine the best possible variables that would contribute to military effectiveness. For example, military spending under the Kennedy administration has dramatically rose by 30% owing to Kissinger’s traditional balance of power thinking paying for new and innovative strategies during the height of the Cold War. (Giglio and Rabe 2003, p15) Historically, when war and battles were fought with swords, arrows and spears, the variables were quite simple – the soldier’s individual strength, wisdom, dedication to a cause, honor and bravery were considered important. (Wyatt 1990, p75) The case today, however, is radically different. Technology and the new weapons system have complicated the way war is won. For example, some tacticians rely on sociologists to identify important factors that could spell success or defeat in war. According to Brooks and Stanley (2007), sociologists tend to explain elements such as the motivational issues during battle or the dynamics of unit cohesion versus ideology. There are numerous other ways by which the theme is approached and that these initiatives collectively resulted on the currently available tools for military strategists today - from technology to sophisticated tactical models that promise success in war. An important element in this continuing quest for military efficiency is the Operations Research (OR). OR, also known as decision science or management science in some sectors, pertains to the ways in which technology is harnessed for the use of institutions and organizations. Specifically, in military terms, it is considered a mathematical field that helps in improving decision-making as well as efficiency, productivity and success-rate by developing strategies, models and techniques that can address numerous military and defense problems. Generally, it puts emphasis on the use of technology and not on technology itself exclusively. Operations Research or military-related OR, wrote Brooks and Stanley, is a type of analysis that involves mathematical modeling and computer simulations of battle and war outcomes. (p6) History Some scholars suggest that military OR originated during the Cold War or as early as the 1950s, just after the end of World War II. It used to be the classification for the discipline, which modeled the effects of the diverse technologies and systems that include radar, antisubmarine warfare, or antiaircraft defense. (Brooks and Stanley, p6) Eventually, when the conflict between the Soviet Union and the United States culminated in the Cold War, OR came to pursue the ways in which nuclear weapons capabilities and requirements as well as battle formations were tested by the US military and its allies. There are researchers, however, who found that operations researchers its modern sense have existed as early as the first World War when Frederick Lanchester developed a mathematical analysis of air combat, a model that would become pivotal in subsequent development of theories of combat and in calculating attrition rates in military operations. (Przemieniecki 2000, p2) In this school of thought, OR was a creation of the British, resulting from the initiative of A.P. Rowe, who, in turn, was responsible for the organization of research teams that developed effective techniques for using the then newly constructed radar that can locate the enemy aircraft used in the Second World War. This early version of the OR eventually was exported to the US army, which subsequently established its own research group that would lead the scientific development within the organization. In 1952, the Operations Research Society of America was established, immediately followed by the founding of the Military Operations Research Society back in the 1960s. Years later, private enterprise joined the fray, often collaborating with government agencies involved in operations research. Excellent examples include the Institute of Defense Analyses and the Studies Analysis and Gaming Agency. (Shrader 2009, p258) The Soviet Union also placed great importance on OR. Przemieniecki explained that for the Soviets, the discipline figured prominently in combat readiness for its armed forces given the fact that the country had the numerical superiority with its weapons cache. (p2) OR was supposedly important in the manner in which Soviet Union achieved their brand of force mobility, the efficacy of its striking force and the steady increase of its fire power. Today, operations research is important more than ever. Technology has driven the rapid development in military and defense and its integration into military readiness and practice is demonstrated in several fronts. Starting in the 1980s, the technological competence of countries in the area of military and defense has been characterized by sophisticated weapons, most of with automatic capabilities such as precision-guided weapons as well as advanced command, control and communication systems, including highly computerized force structure, which according to Przemieniecki (1981), all require people and military models with the capabilities to develop, acquire and operate them. (p71) Indeed, through OR, the US was able to replace its former mass-production system used in the World War I with the more advanced defense innovation system, characterized by nuclear capability and highly superior air force. Bracken (2006) pointed out that the innovation has been built around the trade-off of increased performance for increased cost and that this strategy paid off. (p3) Operations Research figure prominently in this breakthrough because it is needed in the cost-performance strategy, in the learning curve, in the integration if the overall military strategy, among other related aspects. Particularly, wrote Bracken, “operations research in its varied forms – systems analysis, cost-benefit analysis, programming models, and so forth – is the lingua franca of trade-offs” and that “it works best under conditions of loose coupling and when the payoff of new technology can be confined to one department of the whole enterprise.” (Bracken, p3) Theories and Applications The key concept in operations research is “scientific method”. Some also cite “mathematical method” but the core idea is refers to the scientific way in which a military problem is approached. Some fields in OR include, but are not limited to statistics, decision theory, modeling and simulation, game theory, queuing theory, among others. OR is also currently linked to computing and analytics because of the mathematical and technological nature of its processes. The role of Operations Research in defense is underscored in the way analysis is required in military planning and operations (see Fig. 1). Fig 1.: The role of Analysis Within the Framework of Military Planning (Przemieniecki, p4) Decision Theory Operations research elevated the so-called decision theory in the military strategy and operations. As explained by the previous graph, OR is crucial in the analysis of problems as well as in the development of their solution. Decision theory is supposed to be the driving force behind OR’s wide acceptance in the military structure, particularly in cases of uncertainty. Essentially, the theory is about “a set of possible states that can be modified by the acts of the decision-maker. If all possible consequences of the acts are known and can be assigned utility factors, then an optimal choice of acts can be determined that maximizes the utility of all consequences incurred.” (Przemieniecki, p6) Research and Development After the Cold War and after OR had been significantly embedded in the American military enterprise, the scope and content of the research and development in the American Armed Forces have dramatically widened and diversified. The systematic problem-solving process adopted features the seamless coordination between the research laboratories and the technical activities, starting from research towards the development of weapons system. OR is at the center of these feverish and highly efficient strategy. In addition to the improvement of the army arsenal, operations research also powered the R&D’s mandate to solve solutions that are encountered in the process. OR’s importance in this issue is highlighted by the cases wherein speculative fields of science have to be employed such as solid-state physics. In these instances, the scientific method/mathematical method of problem solving allowed the successful execution of activities by the research and development agencies. For instance, Lassman (2009) wrote that OR is responsible for the identification of solutions that prescribe the emulation of research undertaken by academic and industrial institutions. (p8) This development supposedly launched the tradition established in the US Department of Defense (DoD), concerning co-operations with educational institutions and the private sectors in certain aspects of its operations. With models of concept analysis, the DoD “found that it was neither feasible nor efficient to exclusively meet their scientific needs within their own organizations,” (Roucek 1971, p399) and billions of dollars budgeted by the Federal Government for the conduct of research and development, a significant portion is allocated to contracts with educational and private firms. According to Feldman accepting defense money becomes sine qua of life for many academics, quoting Richard De Vaux, a professor in Program in Statistics and Operations Research at Princeton University, to underscore his point: It is certainly true that military provides a substantial amount of funding in the area of statistics and operations research… These funds are very competitive to get regardless of the source… [they] are an important aspect of tenure decision, your ability to provide funds for your research and to support your students. (p195) Computing Cost The initiative to reform, modernize and maintain superiority of the US armed forces required the insertion of additional costs. This is in addition to the amount of impact that a new technology would effect on the entire military force both in cost and in performance. For example, if a technology is developed and found to be crucial in military strategy, it would be introduced. The process is extremely complicated and costly because it would, in effect, require adjustments that often involve existing technologies and the manpower manning technologies. This process can immediately drive up cost. Operations research, through its various disciplines could collectively come up with the solution(s) to balance cost and payoffs. OR can prevent the slowing down of military innovations through its systematic mechanisms in order for technologies and processes to be implemented in the soonest possible time, with all computations exhausted determining the feasibility of the entire exercise. To illustrate: if the Air Force is going to acquire aircrafts, the DoD is better equipped to address the question whether there is a need to buy more Strike Fighters than Raptors because the Director of the Defense Research and Engineering and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency lead an army of Operations Research teams to compute all the mathematical possibilities, options and probabilities that could yield the best possible answer to the question. Military Operations In military operations, operations research is applied at all levels, which effectively range from the plans for strategies, tactics and doctrines to the force deployment and employment in actual combat. (Przemieniecki, p3) In the lower ranks, OR is pivotal in the way decision-makers analyze data and studies that can quantify operations, systems and strategies’ efficacy in the same way that it enables the identification of the important criteria for the development of alternatives. The highest echelon involved how OR is utilized by the Office of the President and the National Command Authorities when faced with decisions for military and defense-related actions. A specific demonstration with regards to how OR is applied in military operations is the way combat is measured and analyzed. In 1916, Lanchester (Thomson and Ghanea-Hercock 2006, p52) developed this theory, expressed as Fig. 2: Lanchester Theory In this formula, X denotes Blue combatants (or weapons) while the attrition rate of the Blue force is depicted by dXb/dt, equals to the product of the effective firing rate of the Red force ?r and the number of the Red combatants (or weapons) Xr. The variable t represents the time and the negative sign denotes attrition such as the force reduction in combat. (Przemieniecki, p5) Jaiswal (1997) demonstrated how several difficult operational problems could be addressed by operations research. For instance, he explained how OR can express the intentions of the adversary by measuring the relationship between the party and the adversary in view of their geographical, historical and cultural background and current economic situations. (p356) Problems Operations Research is not a perfect discipline. While it has its uses, it certainly has its own faults as well and could cause serious problems. A very serious flaw is the way OR fails to work on setups characterized by a high degree of interdependencies. For example, the increased OR presence in the American Defense policies and strategies, particularly the high degree of integration between military and scientific fields - sometimes cause some problems with its allies. Scientists involved in OR operations in the DoD express this best, who declared: It really is confusing for the military staffs of our NATO allies, who aren’t used to this interpenetration of scientific and military thinking. The countries which do not have military operations research groups find it increasingly difficult to coordinate their plans with ours… Top officials from other NATO countries have had little or no experience in working with operations research teams, and top scientists from these countries have had no experience in working on military problems. (Tidman 1984, p224) The above scenario is also true in other instances wherein costs and benefits cut across many separate divisions – a factor that may prove troublesome given the fact that today’s military is far more tightly coupled, requiring jointness, data fusion, sensor integration, and battle space management. (Bracken, p3) Operations Research Today In the US, the degree of importance that operations research claims is highlighted by the way each of the departments of the American Armed Forces has its own respective OR departments: Office of the Deputy Under Secretary (Operations Research) for the Army; Center for Naval analyses for the Navy; and, the Studies and Analysis agency for the Air Force. In addition to the US governmental agency tasked with OR or mandated to pursue research in relation to operations research, there are now several private institutions that are devoting their works on OR. In a recent report by the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence (USD(I)), the Advisory Group on Defense Intelligence of Defense Science Board reviewed the application of OR and found that: 1. OR is crucial in improving the quality of investment decision making by illuminating key issues, assumptions, and sources of information; 2. Operations research - particularly in Biometrics and Investment in Balanced Intelligence Cycle, with specific emphasis on Unmanned Aerial Systems - can be further strengthened by constant testing by constant testing and upgrading. (Schneider, p3) The report was firm in its belief that the scientific method that characterizes operations research is important throughout the US Department of Defense (DoD) and the Intelligence Services. It recommended, hence, for OR to be institutionalized and for it to become a robust discipline throughout the DoD, declaring that OR “should be institutionalized, practiced consistently (from a standards and methodology perspective), and used routinely to support high value decisions involving complex requirements and significant resources.” (p4) Conclusion In the context of military and defense, operations research falls under the prevailing policy of the American government to not just develop proper and sufficient military power but also to determine the particular way in which such as power – military force, weapons capability, technology and communications, etc. – can be or would be used. Here, there is a great emphasis placed on the need to have a coherent notion of effective and up-to-date strategy that is both effective and cost efficient. OR has been pivotal in the way reforms have taken place in the DoD. It was crucial in the way changes in organization were effected, particularly in the development of doctrines, force structures as well as the human resource policy. (Hays and Vallance, p493) The problems in these areas were successfully approached with the help of operations research. References Bracken, P 2008, Changing Landscape of Defense Innovation. Washington, D.C.: DIANE Publishing. Brooks, R and Stanley, E 2007, Creating military power: the sources of military effectiveness. Stanford University Press. Feldman, J 1989, Universities in the business of repression: the academic-military-industrial complex and Central America. South End Press. Giglio, J and Rabe, S 2003, Debating the Kennedy presidency, Rowman & Liitlefield. Hays, P, Vallance, B and Van Tassel, A 1997, American defense policy. JHU Press. Jaiswal, NK 1997, Military operations research: quantitative decision making. Berlin: Springer. Lassman, T 2009, Sources of Weapon Systems Innovation in the Department of Defense. Washington, D.C.: DIANE Publishing. Przemieniecki, JS not dated, "Technological Competence and the Military Commander." Air University Review. Przemieniecki, JS 2000, Mathematical methods in defense analyses, Volume 1. AIAA. Roucek, J 1971, The challenge of science education. Ayer Publications. Schneider, W 2009, Operations Research Applications for Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance: Report of the Defense Science Board Advisory Group on Defense Intelligence. Washington, D.C.: DIANE Publishing. Shrader, C 2009, History of Operations Research in the United States Army, Volume 3; Volumes 1973-1995. Government Printing Office. Thomson, S and Ghanea-Hercock, R 2006, Defence applications of multi-agent systems: international workshop, DAMAS 2005, Utrecht, The Netherlands, July 25, 2005 : revised and invited papers, Berlin: Springer. Tidman, K 1984, The Operations Evaluation Group: a history of naval operations analysis.Washington, D.C.: Naval Institute Press. 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