Asta Risk Management - Essay Example

TABLE OF CONTENTS Asta Risk Management 1 Introduction 1 Methodology 1 Progress Tracking 1 Risk Simulation 4 Criticality Index Sensitivity 5 Likelihood and Distribution 6 Methodology Statement 6 Subsidiary Structure in Detail 9 Resources 10 Calculation of Duration 11 Conclusion 11 References 13 Asta Risk Management Introduction From the perspective of the project manager, the complete design of Radway Green will be an overall ASTA project that will consist of the entire construction activities, with specifications relating to the appropriate durations for the three zones involved. In addition, this report will incorporate information regarding the progress achieved in this project, and a sensitivity analysis that employs the Monte Carlo simulation. Methodology This project will utilise the ASTA software and it will commence on 15 October 2014. Moreover, the order date of the client will be four weeks prior to the onset of the project. This project is to be completed on 19 September 2016. The major tasks of this project will include clearing of the site and the necessary demolitions, external work and sewers, subsidiary structure, super structure, and roads and finishes. The related durations and resources will be calculated by employing bill of quantities and planning output excel sheets. These will be provided in the sequel. Progress Tracking During the 15th week, the construction work was delayed, which affected the overall time frame of the project. Delays, in this context, can be described as events that postpone the date of completion beyond the specified date to which the parties to the project had agreed upon. On account of deferrals, several unwanted consequences can transpire. These include, escalating costs, loss of productivity, and arguments between the concerned parties. In this context, direct costs pertain to the hiring of additional labour, equipment and material, in order to complete the work within the specified time or with delay that is acceptable to all the parties. The aim is to identify the various delays and the effect that they exert upon the project. Moreover, another goal is to minimise the adverse consequences of these delaying instances, vis-à-vis the completion date of the project. On 10 February 2015, the 15th week of the project, the following unexpected issues cropped up. First, there was copious rainfall, which deferred the completion of the external wall by two weeks. Significantly, this task had commenced as per schedule. Second, the contractor for the steelwork encountered severe labour problems, which delayed the steel frame work by two weeks. Third, the client modified the specification to the roof. This served to delay the commencement of the roof sheeting task by three weeks. However, this task was completed with just a week’s delay. A minor delay was experienced in all the activities that commenced around the 15th week. As a consequence, the overall progress of several activities was affected. The instances of affected activities were; first, on 25 March 2015, inclement weather compelled the brick/block work to increase its planned duration to two weeks. This had a cascading effect upon all the activities that were dependent upon the completion of this work. Second, on 12 May 2015, there was a significant shortage of labour, which served to postpone the commencement of the steel work by two weeks. All the same, the adverse impact of this delay was minimised by overlapping some of the activities. As such, this delay resulted in delays in the activities that could not be initiated until the completion of this work. The client altered the roof arrangement, which postponed the commencement of the roof sheeting work by three weeks, and its completion by a week. This proved to be very harmful to the completion of the project, as the project, at that juncture, had already been delayed by more than a month. This required the project manager to modify the project, in order to reduce the delay in the overall completion date of the project. Some of the changes, in this regard, have been described in the sequel. First, construction of buildings 24-26 to commence at the same time as the construction of buildings 27-29. Initially, the construction of building 24-26 was to commence a month after the construction of buildings 14-16. Second, building 30-31 to be completed at the same time as the zone 2 buildings 20-23. The time for commencing and completing zone 3 was to remain unaltered, as it would begin after the completion of zone 2. These changes were projected to reduce the delay from five weeks to two weeks. Thus, the date of completion of the project would be 4 October 2016, instead of 19 September 2016. Risk Simulation A sensitivity report regarding the 10 most likely activities that could postpone the completion of the project has been appended below. Buildings 20-23 69% Buildings 11-13 -58% Minor demolitions -22% Asphalt pouring for roads : 3 days -21% 50-51 19% Formwork precast concrete slabs : 5days -18% Priming of concrete: 2 days -18% Cladding system to roof: 10 days 17% Paint and painting services: 3d -16% Suspended ceilings: 2w -15% Buildings 20-23 had the highest possibility, at 69%, of delaying the project. This was followed by buildings 50-51, which had a 19% possibility of causing delay. Finally, a 17% possibility of causing delay, was depicted by the superstructure construction activity of providing cladding to the roof. The lowest possibility of causing delay was enjoyed by minor demolitions with -22% and asphalt pouring for roads with -21%. Criticality Index Sensitivity Client order 100% Removal of trees: 6 days 100% Removal of fencing: 6 days 100% Minor demolitions 100% Cut/fill: 4 days 100% Dozing: 4 days 100% Vibro compaction 100% Excavation for sewer channels (culverts): 3 days 100% Backfilling: 3 days 100% Laying pipes: 3 days 100% The tasks enumerated above, occupy the highest levels in the hierarchy of critical tasks. These tasks dominate the iterations produced during the performance of a risk analysis. Moreover, the Criticality Index Sensitivity report show above, illustrates the proportion of the iterations, wherein each task had been included in the critical path. In addition, these tasks enjoyed a 100% hit rate. Likelihood and Distribution The above appended graph depicts the probable maximum and minimum periods for the completion of the project. In the absence of delays, the project would be completed on 20 June 2016. In the event of enormous delays, the project’s completion could be deferred until 12 January 2017. The mean date, on which the project would most likely be completed, on the basis of the balanced risk percentages, would be 18 September 2016, which had the maximum hits of 5. Methodology Statement This project has been prepared by employing the ASTA software, and it will commence on 15 October 2014. In addition, the client order date will be four weeks prior to this date. The different stages in the project are described below. The project will commence with the preparation of the site for construction work. To this end, obstacles, such as fences and trees will be removed, and the electrical cables traversing the site will be relocated. The site clearance activities will overlap, as this will save time. In addition, minor demolition works, for constructing a car park and drainage facilities, will be undertaken. This will be followed by external work for the three zones that make up this site. Some of the items of this work being, levelling of the areas where construction is to commence. Furthermore, vibro compaction will be undertaken, which constitutes a ground improvement procedure. In essence, this procedure makes the soil denser by means of a vibrator that has been suspended from a crane. This vibrator is lowered into the soil under the force of gravity. Some of the tasks undertaken in the external work will include the excavation and laying of pipes for water supply, drainage and sewers for the three zones, simultaneously. The completion of work, together, throughout the entire site, will be facilitated by the availability of labour, construction materials, machinery and working space on the site. A very important reason for this approach is that the buildings in the three zones will have certain overlapping activities, which has been indicated on the ASTA software. On 6 January 2015, construction work for the subsidiary structure of buildings 17-19 and 11-13, will commence. The work related to these buildings will share the same activities and date of completion. The principal activities of the subsidiary structure will start with the further levelling of the construction area, laying of the foundation, construction of columns and the construction of brick/block walls. The work will be commenced at the same time, as buildings 17-19 and 11-13 are to be located close to each other. As a consequence, the overall completion time of the project and its cost will be reduced to an appreciable extent. On 27 April 2015, work will commence on the superstructure. The chief activity will be the construction of the steel frame, building of concrete slabs, construction of brick/block walls, construction of the roof, and internal works, such as, plastering, flooring, and installation of windows and doors. The subsidiary structure work on building 14-16 will commence five weeks after the work starts on buildings 11-19, as the available place and resources on the site, do not permit the construction of all the buildings in Zone 1 at the same time. Subsequent to completing the construction of buildings 11-19, the engineers and labourers will undertake the construction of buildings 14-16. The construction of buildings 24-29 will be at the same time, as they are situated very close to each other. Therefore, mechanical devices used in the construction, such as cranes can work on several buildings, simultaneously. In addition, the construction material for these buildings can be stored at the same place. The availability of space, engineers and labourers makes it possible for the construction of buildings 24-29 to be commenced and completed at the same time. A month after the work begins on the construction of buildings 24-29, construction work on buildings 30-31 in zone 1 and 20-23 in zone 2 will be launched. This indicates that engineers, labourers and machinery will be transferred from the construction of buildings 24-29 and 30-31 in zone 1 and 20-23 in zone 2, subsequent to the conclusion of their construction. After the completion of construction of buildings in zone 2, buildings 50-51 in zone 3 will be constructed. This is due to the fact that the conditions of the site do not permit the construction of buildings in zone 3 prior to the completion of construction of buildings in zone 2. The road will be constructed, after all the buildings in the three zones have been completed, and this date has been fixed as 7 September 2016. The construction of the road will consist of the pouring of asphalt, design of kerbs and the laying out of the pavement for the residents and pedestrians. In addition, finishing touches, such as painting and plastering will be undertaken. Finally, a services check, consisting of a thorough examination of the mechanical and electrical features of this complex will be conducted. Thereafter, the keys to these premises will be handed over to the residents. Subsidiary Structure in Detail Work on the subsidiary structure will commence on 6 January 2014. This will entail levelling and some amount of vibro compaction to prepare the ground soil for the laying of the foundation. Thereafter, the foundation column casing will be undertaken, and this will be followed by the construction of the framework for the beams and foundation. Subsequent to these framework activities, concrete will be poured for the beams and columns, and this will be followed by ground slab concrete setting. After this the brick/block walls will be constructed, with the appropriate thermal insulation. These activities will involve a modicum of overlapping, as these have to be completed sequentially and only after the previous activity has been completed. Resources Location Activity Resources Required Zone 1-3 Site clearing 5 gang: 3 persons in each gang. Zone 1-3 Demolitions 2 machinery with drivers. 2 gang: 3 persons each. Zone 1-3 External work 5 machinery with drivers. 2 gang: 3 persons each. Building 17-19 Substructure 2 machinery with drivers. 3 gang: 3 persons each. Superstructure 5 gang: 3 persons each Zone 1-3 Road and finishing 2 machinery with drivers. 3 gang: 3 persons each. The quantum of resources required for this project were estimated on the basis of the following: One week and four days for clearing the entire site. Two weeks and two days for demolition work. Five weeks and three days for external work and sewers. 15 weeks and two days for constructing the subsidiary structure for buildings 17-19. 24 weeks and two days for constructing the superstructure for buildings 17-19. Three weeks and four days for laying the roads and for the finishing work for the entire site. The machinery and labourers were to be shifted from an activity that they had completed to a fresh activity. For instance, after site clearance and demolition, labourers, engineers and machinery would be transferred to subsidiary structure activities. Moreover, the quantity of resources would double in areas where there was an overlap in the buildings belonging to zones 1 and 2. Calculation of Duration The planning output sheet, appended below, was used for calculating durations, by employing Microsoft Excel. Activity Unit Quantity Rate Per Hour Gang Number Duration Hours Duration Days Duration Weeks Difficulty Rating Programme Hours Programme Days Programme Weeks Remove Trees No 13 0.3 1 43.33 5.4 1.1 10% 47.67 6.0 1.2 Remove Hedges LM 73 10 1 7.30 0.9 0.2 10% 8.03 1.0 0.2 Topsoil M2 1344 60 1 22.40 2.8 0.6 10% 24.64 3.1 0.6 Trenches M3 107 7 1 15.29 1.9 0.4 10% 16.81 2.1 0.4 Pits M3 115 7 1 16.43 2.1 0.4 10% 18.07 2.3 0.5 Reduced Level >5000m3 M3 1552 50 1 31.04 3.9 0.8 10% 34.14 4.3 0.9 Foundations M3 225 4 1 56.25 7.0 1.4 10% 61.88 7.7 1.5 Blockwork 140mm M2 84 2.1 1 40.00 5.0 1.0 10% 44.00 5.5 1.1 Conclusion This project commenced on 15 October 2014 and it was planned to complete it by 19 September 2016. However, certain issues made it necessary to postpone the completion date to 4 October 2016. The project manager had to undertake several arrangements and changes to activities, in order to reduce the delay to a minimum. These have been described, in detail, above. References Chester, M. & Hendrickson, C., 2005. Cost Impacts, Scheduling Impacts, and the Claims Process during Construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 131(1), p.102-107. Hayward Baker, 2014. Vibro Compaction. [online] Available at: [Accessed 31 January 2015]. Read More