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Decision tree - Essay Example

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Summary
This case study analyzes the Piezo Power Fabric (PPF) corporation whose senior manager have to make a decision on the site of a manufacturing capability for an complex polymer-based fabric that is at present in the final phases of enlargement and testing, approximated to last…
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Decision tree
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Decision tree

Download file to see previous pages... So far the example fabric has met PPF’s essential performance standards but additional testing will illustrate if it can attain their maximum specification.
Decision hypothesis is a logical and systematic strategy to the analysis of decision making. A fine decision is one that is oriented on logic; reflects on all accessible data and potential alternatives, and the quantitative strategies of data.
In terms of the expected values calculated, and consequent decision, it does not matter if costs are to the left of amount or vice versa; though rationally the costs are incurred prior to the site acquisition revenue is earned so it generates more sense to put expenses to the left of amount.
Clearly nothing will be achieved if PPF management decides not to go on with the project what he needs to find to decide to drill is an EV for this act that is greater than $0. The EV for drilling is $140k so he should drill.
When p (abandoned) = 0 this means the likelihood of it failing to acquire the site and make profit is 1 (i.e. certain) and from the pertinent section of the decision illustration it can be observed that the EV is 1 x -$- £14.8.M
In case of p (maximum) = 1 then there are two potential it can be possible to buy Curie site or delay decision making and maintain Faraday site. These double events are equally exclusive and comprehensive so must add up to 1. To attain this one must normalize the probabilities of buying the Curie site and expanding Faraday site to make them add up to ...Download file to see next pagesRead More
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