Inter-relationship between Farm Level Agriculture and Global Warming - Research Paper Example

? Inter-relationship between Farm Level Agriculture and Global Warming Introduction Global warming, which refers to the increasing temperature of the earth owing to certain gases like carbon dioxide that trap the heat from the sun and make the surface of the earth warmer than what can be accepted as tolerable (Oxlade, 2006, P.4), is known to pose several “potential damages” to the agriculture on earth (Turner, 1990, p.197). The threat to world agriculture is the most important of all the damages caused by the “unarrested” global warming. According to few studies, a small amount of warming in the next few decades might prove to have certain global benefits on the agriculture. However, functioning of different policies based on the above mentioned possibility may leave the world agriculture on an inevitable course towards a consequent problem into a severe destruction (Cline, 2007, pp.1-2).The problem with modern farm practices is that these are one of the most significant contributors to global warming. The farming practices presently available and being in use are not capable of being maintained for several causes (LaSalle, 2008, p.1). However, one of the key reasons to worry about relating to potential “climate change” is the consequence it will have on agriculture, both worldwide as well as in the local regions (Hardy, 2003, p.120). According to certain predictions made on the production of cereals and other related agricultural products, it has been obtained that there are enormous qualms about whether climate change will cause “global agricultural production to increase or decrease”. Studies reveal that increase in carbon dioxide level facilitate better growth of agricultural plants. However the increase or decrease in the production would largely depend on the temperature or climate changes (Maslin, 2004, p.99). This report would mainly present a study on the inter-relationship between the farm level agriculture and the global warming, thus having an outlook on the effects that may prevail in the future. Global Warming and its Economics: A significant cultural issue facing the world in the present day is the connection between “global warming and economic policy” (Callan & Thomas, 2007, p.254). Scientists and economists have different views and opinions on this issue, where some give little importance to the complexities relating to the effects; others view the problem with serious concern reflecting consequences of disaster in the near future. Several proposals have been worked on to deal with greenhouse gases; proposals including “imposing taxes on fuels in proportion to their carbon dioxide content, emissions trading, and aggressive policy towards the development of clean technologies”. Agriculture is that part of the economy that is very susceptible to climate change and hence to global warming. Many countries have started importing regions of agriculture that they might need, a policy that has made the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of such countries to be less at risk to climate change. However, if climate change drastically agitates the agriculture, all countries are expected to experience the effect, even if their GDP is not dependent on agriculture. The policy of congregating agriculture in certain global regions has created greater concerns as the “lack of diversity” with small climate changes may actually affect the entire world as a whole (Grant, n.d.). In view of the economic growth and reserves of fossil fuels, estimations indicate that “global emissions” might show a rise from 6 billion tons of carbon to 20 billion tons till the year 2100 and 50 billion tons by the late 23rd century. According to different studies conducted, if this happens, the atmospheric absorptions of carbon could develop at much higher levels. The temperatures would increase worldwide. Effects of carbon fertilization which implies stimulation of plant growth by higher levels of carbon dioxide are sometimes believed to reduce the effect or surmount damages; however, such predictions do not take into consideration that “increases in other trace gases mean atmospheric carbon dioxide is considerably less than double when carbon-equivalent doubles”. Adaptation of farm is often referred to as a counterbalance but according to one study, vastness of these losses would crop up even with approving suppositions of adaptations (Cline, 1992, pp.4-5). Climate change results from greenhouse gas emissions allied with economic activities that include “energy, industry, transport, and use of land”. A great deal of the economic activity leads to the discharge of greenhouse gases (GHGs). With accumulation of these gases in the atmosphere, there occurs a rise in the temperature, and changes in the climate affect the costs and benefits on the society. The fundamental premise of “externalities and public goods” is the initial measure for most economic analyses of climate change (Stern, 2007, p.12). It is known that extreme changes in climate carry significant costs. Research conducted recently indicates that the heat wave prevailing in the current scenario is more likely owing to influence of human on the climate. According to Swiss Re, who is the second largest insurer in the world, the economic costs of global warming intimidate to double from that of the present estimations thus causing huge claims on the insurers. Quantitative research on impacts of climate changes is rare in many sectors and qualitative research is often found to ignore the influence of socio-economic changes (Committee on Economic Affairs, 2005, p.119). The IPCC or Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change focuses on the examination of the “evidence on climate change”. According to their report, global warming is indisputable as can be found to be evident from the increases in temperature of the surface of earth, the melting of ice and snow as well as rising sea level. Also, rainfall in the Northern Hemispheres has been found to be increasing in regions of higher latitudes while decreasing in the lower latitudes. The occurrence and concentration of extreme precipitation have also been found to be rising at an increasing level. Global warming or climate change is also expected to affect sustainable development as climate change is the outcome of unsustainable development. According to current studies, loss of ice mass increases with temperature rises more rapidly than with precipitation and that the “surface mass balance becomes negative at a global average warming” (Leon, 2008, pp.13-18). The Stern Review is an easily reached, autonomous, and all-inclusive analysis of the economic aspects of the global warming issues. The review has been found to consider all aspects of related issues that include the character of the economics and knowledge, the impact of the climatic change on growth and development in all countries, the finances of slashing emissions and alleviating greenhouse gas emissions in the environment, as well as the challenges of attaining persistent global group accomplishment (Stern, 2007, p.i). The impact of global ecological dispossession is by and large felt by developing countries because agriculture and related quarters of the economy are mostly responsive to changes in climatic and environmental conditions caused due to global warming. According to studies made by Whally and Wigle, the difficulties of controlling greenhouse gases are expected to be realized more in developing nations than in nations that are developed. Food production in developing countries would considerably reduce with the initiation of global warming which may lead to severe food crisis (Uzawa, 2003, pp.2-4). Over the last couple of years, several economic models have been developed that analyze the problem of global warming from an economic viewpoint. The DICE or the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy integrated the “economics, carbon cycle, climate science, and impacts” in an extremely comprehensive manner that presented a measure of the costs and benefits of taking steps to curb greenhouse warming. Another version of this model at the regional level was also developed that was referred as RICE (Regional dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy). As per these models, the economy of any nation can lessen the quantity of yield committed to utilization and industrious investment by taking different measures towards cutting down emissions of greenhouse gases. The DICE and RICE models used an experiential approach to “estimating the carbon flows, estimating the parameters of the emissions-concentrations equation from data on emissions and concentrations”. Considering the economic impacts of climate change persists to be the most significant issue in climate-change economics. Approximations of climate-change impacts in most incorporated evaluation modeling rely on a broad range of estimates of the impairment from climate change in different sectors for different regions (Nordhaus, 1999, pp.5-12). Agriculture and Global Warming and the Economics Behind: It is extensively acknowledged that agriculture in the “hot and arid regions” of several developing countries is greatly affected by the global warming. Economic growth in many developing countries sets further difficulties on the supply of food materials. This happens owing to growing demands of meat and dairy products depending on higher incomes in families. Requirement of animal products is enhanced by prices that do not comprise the ecological costs of production as well as governmental financial assistance for large farmers in particular and industrial agriculture in general in many countries. The remarkable increases in prices caused severe problems for the poorer populations of the different nations (FitzRoy & Papyrakis, 2009, pp. 23-24). Agriculture is expected to be affected by changes in both temperature and precipitation as well as changes in the levels of carbon dioxide. The effect of warming on agriculture is quite uncertain in developing countries since these countries “use more labor intensive techniques” and found in lower latitudes. Farmers in developing countries are generally poorly equipped in monitoring climatic changes and thus in predicting their impacts. They may neither possess the equipments to measure the climate nor have the rights to use good climatic forecasts. Thus different techniques are tried to be adopted that might help the farmers and such agricultural industries in detecting issues related to global warming and thus protect them from the harsh impacts (Mendelsohn & Tiwari, 2000, pp.9-21). However problems arise when such are either not available or the industries or farmers are not being able to utilize such facilities thus leading to failures in the market. A Case as an Example: The Australian Government’s Support in Reduction of Greenhouse Gases’ Emissions: The Australian government has been found to be assisting its livestock industries to investigate and discover policies for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The Greenhouse Gas Abatement program aspires to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases in Australia by financially supporting actions that would consequently lead to significant reduction in emissions or hinder the enhancement of such emissions. This program targets “opportunity for large-scale, cost effective and sustained greenhouse abatement” and different projects associated with this program are executed only when resulting levels exceed the desired limits. The Greenhouse Challenge Program was a “voluntary initiative between the Australian government and industry” that was established in the year 1995 (Takahashi & Young, 2002, pp.117-118). There have been significant arguments internationally as well as in Australia, concerning the impacts of the increasing greenhouse effect on the climate of the world thereby affecting the agriculture as well; however the major argument deals with the measures that can be utilized to fight these harmful effects of global warming. Several “agroecosystems” have cropped up in Australia over the years resulting from a wide variety of atmospheres that is prevailing across the entire country. An increase in temperature may be expected to increase yields in some crops in some areas while yields in other areas may not have the same impacts and may decrease on the other hand. It is not known in particular as to what might the specific effects of enhanced greenhouse gases and global warming on the agriculture. Still, what can come out as a certain outcome is the long term and disruptive effect of the enhanced global warming on the agriculture of the country or the world as a whole (Australian Agribusiness Group, 2001, pp.I-III). Two major impacts of increasing temperature have been obtained on agriculture. These include “changed growth patterns of plants or crops which are currently grown in the climatic zones”, and secondly a “shift of climatic zones and therefore agricultural zones towards the poles”. Considering countries like Australia, higher temperatures are directly expected to influence the type of production of crops. Increased temperatures may increase yields in certain crops in certain areas, while yields of other crops may decrease. Certain regions of cropping may undergo shifts so that they may be able to grow in those areas, while other regions may become inapt for growth of crops or agriculture. Greenhouse effect is also expected to affect the global food supply. It is generally considered that while agricultural production in some countries may reduce, overall there might not be any significant impacts in the agricultural output in the next coming years. The problem that may arise is related to the supply of food thus resulting to uneven distribution thus creating a negative effect on the agricultural production (Australian Agribusiness Group, 2001, pp.4-9). There are certain problems with the modern agriculture as well. Farming practices in the present scenario cannot be continued to be maintained owing to several reasons. Some “Midwestern soils” that were composed of around 20 percent of carbon in the early times now contains not more than 2 percent of carbons. This loss of carbon leads to erosions of soil, by corrupting the structure of soil. This also increases susceptibility to famines, which to a great extent reduces the power of “water-holding carbon” in the soil; and also causes the loss of soil’s indigenous nutrient. Further to this, the farming practices that are widespread in today’s agricultural systems rupture the soil carbon into carbon dioxide that is produced into the environment, greatly enhancing the global warming and greenhouse gas emissions. Some other harmful effects of the “modern-farming” practices include excess of nutrients in waterways system which occurs from the exploitation of synthetic nitrogen; secondly profuse use of petrol-based chemicals lead to loss of energy reserves which in turn increase the financial burden on the farmers owing to higher oil prices; thirdly soils get degraded owing to “monocropping” that makes use of synthetic fertilizer. Concerns are also related to health and wellbeing of animals (LaSalle, 2008, p.1). There are several initiatives that have been found to be taken in order to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases. These include steps taken by the European Union, along with which there are other policy initiatives as well. The European Program on Climate Change had taken the initiative to reinforce existing actions to reduce global warming. Policy initiatives have also been initiated with respect to introduction of tax payments on carbon dioxide emissions and energy. The introduction of such taxation system was found to be essential as this would bring about changes in the use of sources that are more polluting to the nature. Policy initiatives have also been undertaken in relation to transportation as this sector has very large potential for greenhouse gas emissions reduction. Energy usage including renewable energy sources has also been considered to be involved in these measures that would reduce global warming to a great extent. An important provision for the “European Union and policy decisions” related to greenhouse gas emissions reductions is that “the Union should try to ensure that these objectives do not conflict with the social and economic developmental objectives of the nation”. Thus effective performances of such measures may imply that greenhouse gas emissions or global warming may have lesser effect on the agriculture of the nation as well (Islam & Burhenne-Guilmin, 2002, pp.126-145). Economics Literature Relating to Crop Farm Level Agriculture and Global Warming: According to studies conducted by Marland and others, carbon dioxide which is considered as an important greenhouse gas, has been found to show increase in its concentrations in the environment from around “280 parts per million (ppm) before the Industrial Revolution to 380 ppm” in the current scenario. Studies reflect that global warming may cause “economic damages” to the agricultural sector. If farmers continue to plant their crops in the same places in the same manner without bringing any change in the chemicals used or the labor, then yields may vary increasing in some areas while decreasing in other regions. However prices would only remain unaffected if the net loss occurring is not a huge portion of the total production. Evaluation of the total costs becomes more problematical if the net loss is not a small fraction of the entire agricultural production (Southgate & Sohngen, 2007, pp.4-5). Ricardian Analysis: The essential two grounds on which the economic studies of the impacts of global warming on crop level agriculture are based include adaptation of different ways by farmers towards encountering climate change, and limited adjustments of prices. The studies revealed the effects of higher temperatures on “land values”. Though in some areas, the estimated effects were found to be negative, in many other regions, it was found that global warming causes the value of land to increase. Studies have also been conducted by scientists like Schlenker, Hanemann, and Fisher according to which different associations between the crop yields and the global warming have been tried to be obtained. Studies show that technological developments could lessen the impacts of global warming on the agricultural crops. Free markets also provide advantages to the extent that if strict regulation does not follow on the exchange of goods, services or other inputs then individuals might be able to adjust rapidly to shifts in demand or supply. Studies by Schlenker, Hanemann, and Fisher also suggest that global warming could do “serious damage to rain-fed agriculture”. This is most likely to occur if precipitation is caused by climate changes thereby causing greater harm owing to drier conditions. Thus efficient pricing of water is an essential aspect in this respect (Southgate & Sohngen, 2007, pp.5-8). Climatic influence Climate changes caused by the increasing emissions of greenhouse gases is prone to affecting yields of crops across the world in different manners spreading over different regions. As per several reviews on the concerned topic, the “mid and high latitude regions” have been found to be have lesser effects on crop level agriculture than the other parts of the world. Impending yields of crops are most likely to be decreased by “shortening of the crop growing period”, “decrease in water availability”, and “poor vernalization of crops”. According to studies made using the world food trade model on the economic impacts of such changes in crop yields it was found that the ability of the world food system to take up the effects decreased with increase in the level of impacts (Strzepek, 1995, p.52). It can be expected that agriculture would adjust with the changes in climate and global warming, but these adjustments are likely to have their impacts on the future world. Changes in the use of land and in technology may be expected to occur as measures of adjustments by the agricultural sector. It can however be realized that if climate changes occur at a level that farm level agriculture is unable to maintain, then the costs of adjusting to such global warming may be huge. Much of the outcomes depend on the direct impacts of carbon dioxide on such crops (Woodward, 1992, pp.86-87). Global warming is probable to impinge on farm level agriculture directly through variations in the duration of the growing spell, the occurrence of heat waves and in some way through changes in the “topsoil management” (Smith & Tirpak, 1988, p.21). A move to changing climatic conditions that may perhaps support farm level crops would necessitate “adaptation strategies” that may include exchange of crops or changes in use of land. Thus positive and negative impacts both may arise out of global warming or increasing emissions of greenhouse gases and have effects on the agriculture (Smit, Wall & Wandel, 2007, p.76). The studies conducted on the viewpoints of development indicate that the most severe apprehension relating to yields of crops as affected by global warming lay in the difference between “developed and developing countries”. If climatic changes were to hinder economic development further than the undeviating impacts on agriculture in the inferior regions, then large effects could be initiated. In all situations of climate changes the comparative production of agriculture alters in support of developed countries having repercussions on provision of resources (Bazzaz, 1996, p.231). With climate change, multiple cropping provides an additional potential production increase in developed countries as studied by the Max-Planck and Canadian models. For the developing countries this increase is much lesser than in developed countries. For the developed countries impact of climate change on the rain-fed multiple cropping and irrigation results highlight a net gain in production of crops like cereals. The gain is lesser in case of the developing countries (Steffen, 2002, p.35). Findings on Economic Impacts: Studies conducted by R.M.Adams et al, Lewandrowski and Schimmelfennig and Reilly et al have provided with certain findings on the economic impacts resulting from global warming affecting the farm level agriculture. Within the next century, provincial increases and decreases related with climate change as at the moment anticipated are not probable to effect in large changes in worldwide food production or any huge universal economic adversity in entire food production. Climate change may have impacts on prices, total use of land and market signals. The economic outcomes of yield changes are expected to get affected by “adaptations made by farmers, consumers, government agencies, and other institutions”. Adaptations may occur by farmers changing durations of planting, exchanging crops, altering techniques of irrigations, and changing provisions of land. On the other hand, consumers may adapt by “substituting relatively low priced products for those that become relatively high priced as a result of climate change effects” (McCarl, Adams & Hurd, 2001, pp.6-7). As most of the developing countries are greatly dependent on agriculture, the effect of climate change on their prolific crops is expected to intimidate economic development as well as the interests of the population (Mano & Nhemachena, 2007, p.5). Contact between crops and pests under changing climatic conditions is very complicated and difficult to foresee because increased levels of carbon dioxide, higher temperatures, and greater variations in climate might alter the “relationships between crops, weeds, and insects” drastically. Increases in the occurrence of extreme changes in climate may reduce the efficacy of the use of pesticides ultimately leading to greater harm to the farm level crops (Gupta, 2005, p.42). Adapting to Climate Change: It is urgently required that agricultural systems are adapted to encounter global warming as trends show that with further increase in the greenhouse gases emissions, the impacts would also increase. Farmers are already found to undertake several adaptation measures that include plantation of different variety of crops, changing durations, and so on as already mentioned. However, countries suffering from “severe resource constraints” would present difficulties for farmers to adapt such measures. The public sector can be expected to assist in adaptation processes through different measures of “crop and livestock insurance”, “safety nets”, and “research on dissemination”. Newer techniques of irrigation would also prove to be effective, particularly if they are integrated with improved access to market factors for “high-value products”. Providing enhanced climate forecasts is another cost-effective way of adapting to climate change. Contingency planning across different sectors would also be needed that may efficiently address the uncertainties arising out of climate change (World Bank, 2007, p.200). Both the small and key levels of adaptation in an international aspect help restore levels of food production in the world. This is less observed in cases where adaptation strategies are not undertaken (Aerts & Droogers, 2004, p.58). In addition to the issue of rising temperature, fluctuations in agricultural production due to global warming are also needed to be considered during evaluation of food security. Such fluctuations may impact the incomes of the farmers to a great extent (Sumi, Fukushi & Hiramatsu, 2010, p.20). The other way to act to encounter the effects of global warming is through mitigation. The effects of global warming gets lessened though this process. For example, decreasing the levels of greenhouse gases with the initiation of protocols such as the Kyoto protocol may mitigate global warming to great extents. Adaptation on the other hand is to bring about a change in the process of responding to the impacts. According to different scientists and policymakers, these two processes should occur simultaneously. Mitigation is a long term process and hence may take several years. Hence to take immediate actions, adaptation strategies are required to be undertaken to lessen the impacts of global warming on the farm level crops and thus the agriculture sector (Hanel. 2010, p.36). Conclusion: As from the literature reviews on the global warming as well as on the effects on global warming on the farm level agriculture have been obtained, it can be realized that global warming is a subject of great concern in the present scenario having its impacts throughout the world. Considering the farm level crops, the increase in certain gases like the carbon dioxide may have some positive impacts in certain regions of the world; however the greater impacts have been found to be highly injurious. Farmers are found to undertake adaptation and mitigation processes that are expected to lessen the effects of global warming to a great extent and protect the farm level agricultural sector. Reference 1) Aerts, J.C.J.H. & P. Droogers (2004), Climate change in contrasting river basins: adaptation strategies for water, food, and environment, Oxfordshire: CABI 2) Bazzaz, F.A. 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