Analysis of the Electric Vehicle Technology Using the Generic Foresight Process Framework - Term Paper Example

Name: Tutor: Course: Date: Analysis of the Electric Vehicle Technology Using the Generic Foresight Process Framework Introduction This essay is about analysis of the electric car technology using the Generic Foresight Process. In it, the issues that are associated with the electric car technology, for its specific market and within the broader social context, are evaluated broadly and deeply. The Generic Foresight Process is made up of the following four main stages: input, foresight, output and strategy. The development of the electric car technology is analysed in terms of these four stages. Furthermore, there are specific tools that are associated with the four different stages of the Generic Foresight Process. The four most important ones are Action Logics, Causal Layered Analysis, STEEP and 4-Quadrants. These tools are used in the analysis of the manner in which the electric car technology is developing. The electric car technology The technology that is used to develop electric cars is not a new one. The first electric cars appeared back in the 20th century with the development of petro-electric models such as the Lohner-Posche in 1901 (Burton n.pag). The idea at the time was to develop a form of vehicle that would be powered using electrical energy as opposed to the conventional fuel-powered vehicles. Their development was based on the need to develop vehicles that used an alternative form of fuel (Argueta 1). However, the technology did not gain wide acceptance at the time. The demand for the vehicles remained partly due to mass production of conventional vehicles and reduction of the global prices of oil (Argueta 1). There are several reasons as to why these initial attempts at building an electric vehicle failed. The most important one, though, is that electric vehicles that were developed at the time were costly, compared to the conventional internal combustion ones. Furthermore, their level of efficiency was incomparably low when measured against that of the conventional vehicles. It is because of such reasons that the idea of carrying out a mass production of electric cars was not fully exploited back in the 19th century. Currently, the basic technology behind the development of electric vehicles remains unchanged. An electric car is essentially made up of three important components: an electric battery, an electric motor and a controller (Larminie and Lowry 8). These components perform distinctive functions in the operation of the car. The electric battery is used to store the power that is used to power the car. On the other hand, the electric motor is used to provide torque that is used to drive the car. The controller is used to regulate the amount of energy that is transferred from the battery to the motor. It is important to note that this basic architecture of an electric vehicle is not ideal. There are many issues that are yet to be resolved in order for the electric vehicle to achieve the level of development that is desired by the designers on one hand and the consumers on the other. One of the main problems of the technology is lack of efficiency of the batteries that are used to store up energy (Larminie and Lowry 13). For the vehicle to achieve its potential, the batteries have to be highly efficient in terms of having the capacity to store up a considerable amount of energy that can then be utilised over a considerable length of time (Burton n.pag). So far, an ideal technology for battery design and development is yet to be developed. In addition to this, the batteries that are used in electric vehicles take a considerable amount of time to get fully charged (Argueta 6). Similarly, this is a challenge that is yet to be addressed fully. Analysis of the electric car technology using the Generic Foresight Process The process of development of the electric car technology can be analysed using the Generic Foresight Process framework. This is done in the sections that follow. Description of the Generic Foresight Process The Generic Foresight Process is a complex form of interrelationships of activities that are undertaken as part of planning strategising for future scenarios (Voros 5). The complex relationships among the different activities that are involved in the process of planning for future scenarios are usually represented in the form of a diagram. In general, representation of the Generic Foresight Process usually includes the following four main interrelated stages: inputs, foresight, outputs and strategy (Conway 4). Inputs At this stage of the process, information that is to be used to design a desired future is collected. Referred to as strategic intelligence scanning, this stage of the strategic planning process is important because it forms the basis for the development of the subsequent stages in the process. Two common techniques that are used in this process are environmental scanning and the Delphi technique (Voros 7). These methods are used to gather information about the internal and external environment of an organization. Further, the techniques can be used to gather information that portrays an immediate and future picture of a phenomenon. This makes the tools necessary for use in determining the short, mid and long term objectives of a strategic planning process. Environmental scanning is done to determine the overall external environment and how its factors affect the strategic planning process. The manner in which the idea of developing an electric car was affected by factors of the external environment can be determined by use of the STEEP analytical tool (Giaoutzi and Sapio 88). STEEP is a short form for social, technological, environmental, economic and political factors of the external environment. Such factors of the external environment are important since strategic planning processes are usually carried out in response to them. All the factors of the STEEP framework affected the manner in which the electric car technology was conceptualised and envisioned during its first stages. For instance, development of the technology is carried out in response to the social needs for an alternative form of cars to the conventional types that are powered by fossil fuel. Even during the initial stages of the development of the technology, the need to get an alternative technology to internal combustion engine was one of the social benefits that created the need for development of electric vehicle technology. Second, one of the most important technological factors that formed the basis for the development of electric car technology was the perceived inefficiency of internal combustion engine. According to Van Themsche, diesel and gasoline-powered engines remain inefficient as compared to electric-powered engines that are used in electric vehicles (169). This is because much of the energy that is produced in petrol-powered engines is lost in the form of heat. Therefore, the ability of electric vehicles to be more efficient in terms of energy consumption was one of the factors that contributed to its initial development. Third, environmental factors played a key role in shaping the need to develop electric vehicle technology. There is a consensus that the use of electric vehicles will considerably reduce the amount of greenhouse gases and other forms of pollutants that are produced (Moorhouse and Laufenberg 2). This will in turn reduce the rate of global warming; an important step in the war against climate change. With regard to economic factors, the basic approach has been to develop an electric car that is relatively cheaper but more efficient than the conventional vehicles. This is necessary since it is only when the cars are economically cheaper that they can appeal to the mass market. Foresight The foresight stage of the Generic Foresight Process is comprised of three distinct steps: analysis, interpretation and prospection (Conway 5). These stages can form a frame of reference for the interpretation of the development of the electric vehicle technology. The analysis stage is used to develop a clear picture of what seems to be happening from the mass of information that is collected at the input stage (Conway 6). One of the common tools used at this stage is trend analysis. With regard to the process of development of the electric car technology, analysis is carried out by determining the current and future trends in the development and adoption of electric vehicles. Zhang et al. observe that the trend of the development and adoption of electric vehicles is represented by the global volume of sales of brands of electric vehicles that are commercially available (8070). As well, there has been a high level of adoption of electric vehicles in Europe and North America, compared to other regions of the world (Zhang et al. 8072). It is also pointed out that the rate of adoption of the technology has been increasing steadily over the recent past. The analysis stage of the foresight is used to provide information about what is really happening. At this stage, the deeper structure of issues is examined to reveal the actual state of affairs with regard to the development of a technology and its future prospects. One of the most common tools that is used at this stage of the process is the Causal Layered Analysis, which is a framework that is use to analyse commonly held views about a technology in terms of underlying social issues, discourse and myths (Inayatullah par. 19). With regard to the development of the electric car technology, it is commonly held that electric vehicles will provide the solution to the problem of greenhouse emission from the use of conventional cars (Moorhouse and Laufenberg 3). However, there are doubts about the ability of the cars to fully replace internal combustion cars as the primary means of transport. These views form the litany under the Causal Layered Analysis framework. These views are underpinned by various social causes. For instance, concern about overreliance on fossil fuel on one hand, and the need to combat climate change on the other are important social issues that drive the need to develop electric vehicles. At the third deeper level is the worldview about how exactly electric cars can contribute to reduction of greenhouse gas emission and the overall capacity of the technology that can be used to develop such cars. At the myth or metaphor level are the emotional concerns by potential consumers on the actual capacity of electric vehicles. Users are concerned about issues such as the possibility of the cars running out of power in areas where charging facilities are not available, and the fear that the cars may not have enough torque as compared to conventional cars (Van Themsche 170). At the prospection stage, various views of alternative futures are created. It is based on the views that the most desired and plausible future is selected. The selected future then forms the basis for the direction in which the strategic process goes. One of the most important tools that can be used at this stage is the 4-quadrant framework. The framework is made up of four quadrants that represent different dimensions of reality (Esbjorn-Hargens par. 8). The four quadrants of 1st person, 2nd person, 3rd person and 4th person perspectives represent the aspects of aesthetics, morals, science and nature (Esbjorn-Hargens par. 9). These aspects are usually taken into consideration when various alternative futures of a new technology are being created. Similarly, the manner in which future scenarios are developed is largely dependent on the perceptions of the individuals who are involved in the process. The perceptions of individuals and their ability to influence the strategic foresight process are depicted in the Action Logics framework (Cook-Greuter 1). At the first level are groups of individuals who are labelled as opportunists and diplomats. These individuals are usually concerned with aspects such as power, belonging and individual interests (Cook-Greuter 1). Experts and achievers are concerned with the needs of the world and are therefore, likely to take the interests of others into consideration when developing their perceptions about future scenarios (Cook-Greuter 3). Individualists and strategists are similarly concerned with the needs of the entire world but, unlike experts and achievers, focus on the long term (Cook-Greuter 3). The development of the electric car technology can be interpreted within the context of this stage. The future scenarios in the development of electric vehicles can be done by considering the current state of affairs and what is likely to take place in the near and far future. Electric vehicles that are currently commercially available such as Tesla, Nissan Leaf and Mitsubishi Outlander are modelled on the conventional cars in terms of design, size and operation (Hunt par. 1). Therefore, if the current design of the cars is to act as the basis of future models, there is unlikely to be any change in the design of future electric cars. However, Bartman notes that current models of electric cars are not disruptive or revolutionary (par. 2). Therefore, the future scenarios of the electric vehicle can be considered in terms of factors such as design, aesthetics, the interests of the world, technological advances and usability. All these factors correspond to the dimensions identified in the 4-Quadrant framework. Furthermore, for them to be fully addressed, the pool of individuals who develop the future scenarios should be varied enough so that the different Action Logics are represented. Outputs In theory, the output stage of the Generic Foresight Process is signified by the development of a range of options that should be explored or by the changes that have been incorporated into the entire process of developing the strategy (Voros 8). What this means is that outputs in strategy formulation are seen in two forms: tangible outputs and intangible outputs. Tangible outputs are those options that can be seen. On the other hand, intangible outputs are the subtle changes that were incorporated in the strategy formulation process as a result of changes in the perceptions of individuals involved in the process. In the case of development of the electric car technology, both tangible and intangible outputs are visible. First, tangible outputs are seen in the form of the current models of electric vehicles that are commercially available. Furthermore, the new possible models for the electric car of the future that are being developed now represent tangible models of the entire process. On the other hand, intangible outputs of the process of developing an electric car may perceived in the manner in which the changes were implemented to the initial conceptualisation of the cars in the course of the development process. Such changes were implemented as a way of addressing specific challenges in the design of the electric vehicles under development that had not been conceived at the time. Currently, the future models of the electric car are subject to change in response to the development of new technologies that are used to develop more effective and efficient batteries (Burton n.pag). Such changes to the perceived outcomes of the future electric car represent intangible outputs of the process. Strategy The last stage of the Generic Foresight Process framework is strategy. Two important things are carried out at this stage. The first one is that the outcome of the entire foresight process is handed over to the final decision makers for actual implementation (Voros 9). It is the duty of the decision makers to make strategic decisions and actions as a way of creating the future that has been developed through the process. In the case of the electric car, the output of the planning process is now given to the actual manufactures and designers of the cars. It is the duty of the manufacturers to create cars that represent the plausible future envisioned in the strategies that have been developed. The second thing is that the implementation process is still linked back to the entire foresight planning process (Voros 11). The implementation is done with reference to the outcomes of the initial stages of the process. Therefore, implementation of the strategy does not take place in isolation. In the case of the process of developing the electric vehicle, the development of the prototype of the car is used to provide feedback to the planning process. This approach makes it possible for the strategies that have been developed to be reassessed. Conclusion The Generic Foresight Process framework provides a useful tool for analysing the development process for the electric vehicle technology. Essentially, the initial development, current status and future developments of the technology can be interpreted basing on the four stages of inputs, foresight, outputs and strategy. This is the case since the technology is still under development, regardless of the fact that there are several models of the electric car that are commercially available. At the input stage, information from the external environment was gathered to create the need for developing a car that uses an alternative form of fuel. At the foresight stage of the process, analysis and interpretation of the information is done. This leads to the development of specific scenarios about how an electric car of the future is supposed to look like. Finally, the output and strategy stages are represented by development of models and actual production of future electric vehicles. Works Cited Argueta, Rony 2010, “A Technical Research Report: The Electric Vehicle”. 15 October 2015. Bartman, Thomas. 14 May 2015. “The Future of Electric Vehicles is Golf Carts, Not Tesla”. Web. 15 Oct. 2015. . Burton, Nigel. A History of Electric Cars. Wiltshire: Crowood Press, 2013. eBook. Conway, Maree 2013, “An Overview of Foresight Methodologies”. Web. 15 October 2015. . Cook-Greuter, Sussanne, R 2002, “A Detailed Description of the Development of Nine Action Logics Adapted from Ego Development Theory for the Leadership Development Framework”. Web. 15 October 2015. . Esbjorn-Hargens, Sean. 12 March 2009. “An Overview of Integral Theory”. Web. 15 Oct. 2015. . Giaoutzi, Maria and Bartolomeo Sapio. Recent Developments in Foresight Methodologies. London: Springer, 2012. Print. Hunt, Tam. 1 April 2015. “The Future of the Electric Car”. Web. 15 Oct. 2015. . Inayatullah, Sohail. “Causal Layered Analysis: Post Structuralism as a Method”. Web. 15 Oct. 2015. . Larminie, James and John Lowry. Electric Vehicle Technology Explained. Mason: John Wiley & Sons, 2004. Print. Moorhouse, Jeremy, and Katie Laufenberg 2010, “Electric Vehicles: Powering the Future”. Web. 15 Oct. 2015. Van Themsche, S. The Advent of Unmanned Electric Vehicles: The Choices between E-Mobility and Immobility, Berlin: Springer, 2015. Print. Voros, Joseph. “A Generic Foresight Process Framework”. Foresight 5.3 (2003):1-20. Zhang Xingping, Jian Xie, Rao Rho and Yani Liang. “Policy Incentives for the Adoption of Electric Vehicles across Countries.” Sustainability. 6. (2014): 8058-8078. Read More