Crime Statistics and Residents Experience of Crime - Dissertation Example

Measuring Crime Statistics and Residents’ Experience of Crime I. Introduction Based on available data, Lynfield E is a “typical inner 1960’s housing estate which houses approximately 1,550 people in 395 flats and maisonettes, many of which are need in need of repair.” Thus, data indicates that household size is close to four persons per flat or maisonette. The data sheet pointed out that the “the estate is conveniently located near local shops” and in the past few years the “estate has acquired a reputation for being a high crime area, particularly in relation to drug dealing.” It is highly likely that crime activities in Lynfield Estate is highly related to the criminal activities close to the Lynfield Estate and a research plan can be formulated to serve the needs of responding also to the incidence of crime in the bus and tube stops about 10 minutes from Lynfield Estate. However, the mandate for the party who wrote this research proposal is limited only to the Lynfield Estate. II. Review of literature The literature on crime fighting, detection, and prevention recognizes the role of community participation in detecting, measuring, and preventing crime. Two examples of the literature emphasizing this point are Mazerolle et al. (2007) and Shiner (2007). It therefore follows that citizens’ perspectives can be a source for measuring society’s progress in the crime rates and in detecting, and preventing crimes. Related to this, there is an arsenal of tools available in statistics manuals or textbooks that can be used to convert citizen perspectives into measures that would help validate existing measures or complement the existing measures for detecting and addressing crimes. Crucial to the development of measures that will allow us to monitor whether crimes has been increasing or decreasing over time is the selection of sample size. Bartlett et al. (2001) provides a long discussion which is too long to summarize here on how the Cochran formula can be used to determine the appropriate sample size given continuous or categorical variables. On page 48 of the work, Bartlett et al. (2001) provides a long table on the minimum sample size for population sizes of 100 to 10,000 at alpha .01 to alpha .10. Another possible sampling procedure that can be used is the Slovin Formula discussed in Unam (2012) and Suyono (2012). According to Unam (2012, p. 52), the Slovin formula is . In the Slovin formula, n is the sample size, N is the population size, and e is the margin of error. Walpole et al . (2007, p. 300) provides a formula for estimating population proportion based on the sample proportion: . The Walpole et al. (2007) formula for estimating population proportion or percentage based on the sample population proportion or percentage is available in practically all books on elementary statistics. Walpole et al. (2007, p. 302) also provides a formula for sample size when we have no prior knowledge of the possible proportion or percentage of a certain variable in a population: . Walpole et al. (2007, p. 302) can be used for large populations in which we have no prior knowledge on the possible percentage of a certain variable value in the population. According to Walpole et al. (2007, p. 302), for example, a 95% confidence level that the error will not exceed by .02, for example, will require a minimum sample of 2,401. For e=.05, the minimum sample required would only be n=385. Thus, it need not be very expensive to use inferential statistics for large populations. Another important formula is the test of hypotheses on proportion or percentage on two proportions provided by Walpole et al. (2007, p. 365) as: . In the Walpole et al. (2007, p. 365) formula, the proportion or percentage with subscripts are the sample proportions while the one without subscript is the pooled proportion. The Walpole et al. (2007, p. 365) formula on test of hypotheses for percentage or proportion is also available in practically all elementary books on statistics and can be useful for testing hypothesis whether one proportion is statistically (and significantly) higher, lower or equal to another proportion. It has the potential for checking hypotheses on whether percentages are increasing, decreasing or unaffected over time. Meanwhile, in implementing surveys, the latest ethical guidelines on research provided by the Social Policy Association (2009) prescribes that researcher in social policy adheres to the principle of getting the informed consent of respondents prior to interviews, adhere to confidentiality in research, and that researchers should always keep their respondents away from harm. Research involving crimes and criminality has the potential to expose respondents to harm and researchers must take care that confidentiality of response to questionnaires be adequately protected. III. Methodology A. Objectives The primary objective of this research is to develop a tool through which we can qualify traditional measures of crime rates through how citizens perceive the frequency occurrence of crime, how safe they are from crimes, their attitudes towards crime and prevention/response, and their potential to be partners of local authorities in the fight against crime. In addition, some of the questions have been designed to assess or measure a locality’s risks to crimes. B. Research design, sampling, strategy and administration In this research, the researcher decided to use the Slovin formula for the determination of sample size. The Slovin formula is supported by literature although attempts by this researcher to determine the ultimate source of the Solving formula have been unsuccessful so far. In any case, as pointed out somewhere by this researcher in this proposal, the minimum sample size as determined by the Slovin formula is higher than that determined by the Bartlett et al (2001) based on the Cochran method. Thus, satisfying the Slovin formula will also satisfy the Cochran method if we go by the computations of Bartlett et al. (2001). Applying the Slovin formula from Unam (2012) where N is the number of households, we need to cover only 199 households for our sample. In contrast, based on Bartlett et al. (2001), the applicable minimum sample size for the given number of households of 395 is only 92 for an alpha of .05 for continuous data and only 196 for categorical data for t=1.96 and margin of error .05. The sampling procedure should be random which is easy to implement. A sample of 199 out of 395 households is easy to obtain by sampling alternately each house because 199 are approximately one-half of 395 households. The head of the household or the more responsible individual in the household should be the respondent for the interview. The 199 respondents can be covered one or two individuals in only a few days of interview time. C. Question and instrumentation The questionnaire to be used for making the measure on crime rates, citizen’s attitudes towards crime and their potential to be mobilized against crime shall be a combination of open-ended and closed ended interview questions that should be closely administered so it can be correctly filled up. Hereunder are the important questions: 1. Race and ethnicity is asked because of the possibility that certain crimes may be race-related like race-hate crimes 2. A question on religion is included for the possibility of crimes related to religion 3. Residency is asked because new residents can indicate infiltration from the outside 4. Questions on close experience with crimes (questions #4 to #8) are asked to compute the percentage of household with close experiences on crimes 5. The respondent (question # 9) is asked whether he or she feels safe from crimes to obtain the percentage of people who believe they are or not safe from crimes 6. Questions are asked (#10, #11 and #13) pertaining to the inclination of respondents to report a crime from which percentages can be computed on the population percentage estimate of people who are inclined to report a crime 7. There is a question (#12) on what the citizen may lack for crime fighting which creates possibilities for the local government to supply them so the citizens are tapped better for fighting crimes 8. Respondents are asked (#13 to #17 except #14) on the status of crime incidence in their locality to provide possibilities for computing percentages, for example, who feels that their community is safe or not safe. 9. Question #14 on the role of citizens against crime is asked to get the people’s attitude to crime fighting and the percentage of people in a population who has a good attitude towards cooperation with the police. 10. Questions #18 to #19 seek to identify the crimes most common in the locality 11. Questions #19 to #21 seek to find out the percentage of people who believe that crime occurrence are too frequent 12. Question #22 seek to elicit citizens’ recommendations to improve police services 13. Question #23 seek to elicit citizens’ recommendation on how to improve crime fighting in general 14. Question #24 seeks to identify the options available to citizens in crime fighting 15. Question #25 seeks to find out if respondents believe that there are criminal elements residing in their neighborhood. D. Analysis Result from the survey will be useful for understanding the status of criminality and peace and order in Lynfield Estate. Comparisons across time can be used via one-way test of hypotheses using the test statistics of Walpole (2007, p. 365) which we have discussed earlier. Thus, one appropriate test of hypothesis that can be made for each variable is Ho or the null hypothesis that the proportion or percentage across time is equal versus H1 or alternative hypothesis is higher than or lower than the earlier percentage or proportion for the variable value. Thus, for instance, it is possible to find out whether criminality has been decreasing or decreasing across time in Lynfield Estate. E. Validity and reliability issue According to Marczyk et al. (2005, p. 158) refer to the conceptual soundness of the research or whether a study can produce “valid conclusions.” Provided, random sampling is followed, it is the opinion of this research designer that the study can produce valid conclusions and findings. On the other hand, reliability refers to “whether the measurement is consistent” (Marczyk 2007). In the opinion of this researcher, the measure devised would be reliable provided we observe the protocols in statistics in qualifying our results. For example, we can only reject or accept hypotheses based on a certain probability level and a null hypothesis may be accepted at a certain probability level but may be rejected at another probability level. Bibliography Bartlett, J. II, Kotrlik, J. & Higgins, C., 2001. Organizational research: Determining appropriate sample size in survey research. Information Technology, Learning and Performance Journal, 19 (1), 43-50. Marczyk, G., DeMatteo, D. & Festinger, D., 2007. Essentials of research design and methodology. New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons. Mazerolle, L., Soole, D. & Rombouts, S., 2007. Disrupting street-level drug markets. Crime Prevention Research Review No. 1. Washington: US Department of Justice. Shiner, M., 2007. The risks and rewards of community involvement. Safer Society, 32 (Spring), 22-24. Social Policy Association, 2009. Social Policy Association guidelines on research ethics. Available from: http://www.social-policy.org.uk/downloads/SPA_code_ethics_jan09.pdf [Accessed 23 October 2012]. Suyono, E. , 2012. Determinant factors affecting the audit quality: An Indonesian perspective. Global Review of Accounting and Finance, 3 (2), 42-47. Unam, J., 2012. Materials management for business success. International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences, 1 (7), 50-56. Walpole, R., Myers, R., Myers, S., & Ye, K., 2007. Probability & Statistics for Engineer & Scientists. 8th ed. London & New Jersey: Pearson Education International. Annex 1: Questionnaire for Residents Instruction to Administrator of the Questionnaire: Interview only after being given permission by the target respondent and after the target respondent has signed a free and informed consent form with this interview instrument. Choose one respondent in every second household from a random start. Standard Greetings to Respondents by Questionnaire Administrator: Hello Madam/Sir! I am __________________, an interviewer hired by the local authority to acquire up-to-date data on the levels of crime and what local residents believe to be the primary needs with regard to crime reduction/prevention. May I have your permission to ask you around twenty questions which will take a few minutes? Rest assured that the data or responses that you will provide will be kept confidential. Thank you very much! Free and Informed Consent Form and Signature of Respondent: I, ________________________________ of Lynfield Estate hereby grant my informed consent to this interview conducted for the local government authority. I was informed that the data gathering was for the purpose of acquiring up-to-date data on the levels of crime and what local residents believe to be the primary needs with regard to crime reduction or prevention. I was assured that my survey response will be kept confidential Signed: ____________________________ Signature of Respondent ____________________________ PRINTED NAME OF RESPONDENT Questionnaire Proper 1. Which of do the following applies to the household you belong at Lynfield Estate  White British  Black British  Latinos or Spanish  British Chinese  Other British Asians  British Middle Eastern  Other British  Foreign citizens Please specify citizenship __________________________ 2. What is the best description of the religious affiliation of your household:  Catholics  Protestants  Other Christians  Muslims or believers of Islam  Jewish  Others 3. What best describes the years of residency of majority of your household:  One year  Two years  Three years  More than three years 4. Did you personally experience (your family or immediate neighbor) a crime or disorder that has taken place in the last 12 months at Lynfield Estate?  Yes  No 5. Did you personally experience (your family or immediate neighbor) a crime or disorder that has taken place in the last 12 months at Lynfield Estate involving at least one person getting hurt?  Yes  No 6. Did you personally experience (your family or immediate neighbor) crimes involving attempts on life but with nobody getting killed in the last 12 months at Lynfield Estate? Answer: _______________ 7. Did you personally experience (your family or immediate neighbor) crimes involving attempts a person getting killed in the last 12 months at Lynfield Estate? Answer: _______________ 8. Did you personally experience (your family or immediate neighbor) crimes involving valuables being taken in the last 12 months at Lynfield Estate? Answer: _______________ 9. Do you feel safe from crimes in Lynfield Estate?  Yes  No 10. Which of the following applies to you:  I will report crimes to the police as they take place  I will not be able to report a crime as they take place because I fear for my safety or those of my family 11. Which of the following applies to you  I have the means to report a crime to the police as it occurs  I do not have the means to report a crime to the as they occur 12. I lack the following means for reporting a crime to the police : ___________________ ______________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________  NOT APPLICABLE 13. Which of the following applies to you  I will support the police and local authorities in preventing and reporting a crime  I will not be able to support the police in matters involving crimes 14. Which of the following is true  Fighting crimes is the work of the police and not of the citizens  Fighting crimes is the work of the police and citizens 15. Which of the following best applies to your locality (Lynfield Estate):  Police authorities need not worry on the peace and order in our locality; our locality is generally safe  Our locality is just like the other localities in which police authorities must be vigilant  Our locality must be a police priority because crimes take place frequently 16. Which of the following best applies to your locality:  Our locality is safe and I do not worry  Our locality is safe but I remain vigilant  Our locality is not safe and I worry 17. Which of the following best applies to our locality:  Use of illegal and addicting drugs and prohibited substances appears rampant in our locality, Lynfield Estate  Use of illegal and addicting drugs and prohibited substances appear to take place at Lynfield State but is not probably rampant  Use of illegal and addicting drugs does not take place in Lynfield Estate 18. What crimes take place in your neighborhood? Answer: __________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ 19. What are the top two crimes in your locality? Answer: ____________________________ _________________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________________ 20. Choose only one response and indicate which of the following best applies to Lynfield Estate  Crimes occur in the locality only rarely  Crimes occur in the locality regularly  Crimes occur in the locality frequently 21. Choose only one response and indicate which of the following best applies to Lynfield Estate  Crimes occur in the locality daily  Crimes occur in the locality at least weekly  Crimes occur in the locality at least monthy  Crimes occur in the locality every several months  Crimes occur in the locality infrequently 22. What are your recommendations to the police so the police can improve its crime-fighting work in Lynfield Estate? ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ 23. What are your other recommendations for an improved crime fighting in Lynfield Estate? ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ 24. Please identify the OPTION you have taken or the best narration below of your situation in protecting yourself from crimes:  Our household has at least one gun for protection  Our household does not have a gun but we have clear “policies” on what to do and what numbers to call in cases of crime  __________________________________________________ others please elaborate 25. Do you believe that there are crime groups or criminal elements residing in your neighborhood or in the Lynnfield Estate?  Yes  No Read More