Qatar High Economic Growth - Assignment Example

According to Walt (2013), Qatar was the fastest-growing economy in the world by 2010, with a real GDP of 19.40%. This ranking has been consistent, especially after the 2007-8 global financial crises, and is expected to continue for the next years due to the rising prices of oil and natural gas. This paper's purpose is to statistically determine whether the values of Qatar’s exports in the oil and gas sector depend on Qatar’s economy, the size of the Importing country, or/and by the distance between Qatar and the importing country.
Analysis

The statistical analysis of the link between the value of Qatar’s export and Qatar’s economy, the size of the importing country, and the distance between Qatar and the importing country will take the following regression model.
Where an export is the natural log of the value of trade, lnGDPQatar is the natural log of Qatar’s GDP, lnGDPIC is the natural log of the oil importing country’s GDP, and the list is the natural
log of the distance between Qatar and the oil-importing country.

When the available data of the value of exports (US $), Qatar’s GDP (Million US $), GDP of the importing country, the Distance (from Doha to the importing country capital), and the natural logs of all these variables were run in SPSS, the following were the results.
According to the table above, the coefficient of determination, R square, and the Adjusted R square are 0.448 and 0.444 respectively. This figure means that the independent variables have explained 44.4% of the variation in the dependent variable (an export). Approximately 44.4% of Qatar’s exports are attributed to Qatar’s economy, the size of the Importing country, and the distance between Qatar and the importing country.

The standard error shows the standard deviation of the various sample statistics from the population i.e. the measure of the variability of the prediction in the regression model. The standard error of the estimates, as shown in the table above is 2.5046, meaning only 2.5046 of the sample deviates from the population, thereby making the data credible.
According to the ANOVA table above, the test for the model validity shows the F-value is 104.682. Assuming the null hypothesis argued in support of the dependence of Qatar’s export value on Qatar’s GDP (Million US $), the GDP of the importing country, and the Distance (from Doha to the importing country capital), then the null hypothesis is rejected since the F-stat>0. The value proves that the model is valid.

The table above shows the interrelationships between the dependent variable (an export) and the independent variables. At a 95% confidence interval for the statistics, the constant becomes -2.887. The model becomes;

Conclusion
It is no doubt that the economic growth pattern of Qatar is largely dependent on the industrial sector led by the oil and gas industry. The overall trade level of the economy is surplus. However, as realized in the analysis above, Qatar’s export value is not positively supported by the distance between Qatar and the importing country. It is positively linked to Qatar’s economy and the size of the Importing country. Read More