Relations and Modeling of GDP and House price index of USA - Statistics Project Example

AS argued by Strawser, et al. (2014), the financial and the mortgage meltdown of 2007-2008, meant that the house price indexes were affected. This study attempts to shed some light on the relationship between the Housing Price Index (HPI) and the Gross Domestic Product of USA amidst all the economic variations since 1993-2009. While this study is limited by the realization that we cannot draw causal inferences without scientific experimentation, the research and data statistical significance suggests that a relationship exists.

For valid causal conclusions, we need an experiment with both a control and conditioned group which would be difficult to stage. The data used in this report has been adopted from the GDP and other key economic reports, world economic outlook reports; IMF reports of 2008 among other economically related data that helped define the objective of the study. The readily available data sources on housing and GDP for the U.S. were investigated. The Bureau of Economic Analysis was the first and best source to get adjusted GDP numbers annually.

The following hypothesis was pursued: The study pursued an overall or general objective of determining the relations and modeling of the GDP and the House price Index of USA. In order to perform this task, it was realized in the study that establishing a simple regression model linking the relations the GDP and the House price Index of USA would be very critical for the study to achieve its objective. In the process, errors in the model were tested so as to build another regression model. ARIMA model for both the GDP and the house prices index in the U.S. were used to determine the formula of the relationship between these two important economic variables.

With the data, the U.S. house price indexes and the U.S.-Real GDP (in billions of dollars) were extracted from 1st January of 1993 to December the