Cause and Effect and Correlation - Essay Example

Cause and Effect and Correlation Cause and Effect and Correlation Does the increased number liquor store cause crime? A study reported by Bradtmiller (2010) revealed that “more liquor stores cause higher violent crime rates” (p. 1). However, the same study emphasized that “alcohol can affect people’s decision making, but it’s not the only thing causing the action” (Bradtmiller, 2010). In sum, the increased number of liquor store is not the sole cause for the criminal activities but could be a contributory factor.

Do you think that the abundance of liquor stores in low income neighborhoods might be the cause of the higher crime? An article published by the John Hopkins University (2000) indicated that “predominantly black, low-income neighborhoods in Baltimore were eight times more likely to have carry-out liquor stores than white or racially integrated neighborhoods” (John Hopkins University, 2000, p. 1). Bradtmiller cited Interim Chief of the IU Police Department Jerry Minger as stating that “There are so many factors that are involved in violence,” Minger said.

“It could be something like a domestic problem or a hate crime and have not anything to do with alcohol” (Bradtmiller, 2010, p. 1). Again, one agrees that the abundance of liquor stores is a contributory factor to criminal activities.In higher crime areas, there are usually more police; does that mean that police cause crime? This statement is totally unfounded, unsubstantiated and does not indicate any correlation to criminal activities. The reason why police presence is needed is to specifically address the crimes committed in high crime areas.

There could be a correlation that when there are high incidents of crime, there would necessarily be greater number of police to address the criminal activities in the area.To determine a reliable correlation between the number of liquor stores and the number of crimes in low income neighborhoods, what kind of experiment might you design? A correlation analysis between two variables (number of liquor stores and number of crimes) would determine a reliable correlation between the two.What kind of correlation number would make you feel fairly certain that there is a solid connection between larger numbers of liquor stores in low income neighborhoods and resulting crime?

The correlation number ‘r’ (Pearson r) would establish whether there is a solid connection between the two variables. As revealed in Knowledge Base (2006), “r will always be between -1.0 and +1.0. if the correlation is negative, we have a negative relationship; if its positive, the relationship is positive” (p. 1). What do you think of drawing conclusions about cause and effect without solid evidence--ethical or unethical? Drawing conclusions about cause and effect without solid evidence is definitely unethical since findings are unsubstantiated and thereby, not reliable.

Does a high correlation indicate a cause and effect relationship? A high correlation does not necessarily indicate a cause and effect relationship. According to STATS (n.d.), “If one action causes another, then they are most certainly correlated. But just because two things occur together does not mean that one caused the other, even if it seems to make sense” (par. 1). Causation is therefore totally different from correlation.ReferencesBradtmiller, K. (2010, March 2). IU study finds more liquor stores cause higher violent crime rates.

Retrieved February 20, 2012, from Indiana Daily Student: http://www.idsnews.com/news/story.aspx?id=74183John Hopkins University. (2000, June 6). Off-Premises Liquor Stores Targeted to Poor Urban Blacks. Retrieved February 20, 2012, from http://www.jhsph.edu/publichealthnews/press_releases/PR_2000/alcohol_off_premises.htmlKnowledge Base. (2006, October 20). Correlation. Retrieved February 21, 2012, from http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/statcorr.php