Modelling a Rational Choice - Annotated Bibliography Example

ive Expected Utility Model ID number College Guido Mehlkop & Peter Graeff. . Modelling a rational choice theory of criminal action: Subjective expected utilities, norms, and interactions. Rationality and Society. New York: sage. This article explains the model of criminal behavior that is extended subjective utility model. This model has more of theorizing and empirical testing unlike the former models. In this model, the decision made by a player is influenced by the utility of crime he/she is expecting and the norm that forbid the criminal act. The model has a suggestion that there is an interaction involving the utility and norms that are reflected in different patterns of decision making paving way for different probabilities for the happening of crimes. The article tries to suggest a tighter link between the modeling of rational decision and its empirical testing. Several features of these model differs from the old model, what is different from the old method is that, there is explicitly difference between parameters and weights when decision equation is being considered. The meaning is not only theoretical but it also advances the operationalization extensively since the variables that do not constitute effects of their own will not appear again on the right side of the equation. The theoretical model is illustrated in the article through applying the situation of tax fraud. The results from this theoretical model confirm the expectations; positive utility expected raises the likelihood of the intended tax fraud greatly. The general obedience of the law applied brings down the likelihood and there is an interaction effect amid the 2 variables that varies between the players. By using a new technique to reveal the interaction effects, it shows that in one pattern, the internalized norms that brand criminal actions as not in a position of taking effect instead of deliberation. In the second pattern, the recognition that individual action are in connection to social norms raises deliberation concerning costs and benefits of a criminal behavior. Sanjyot Kamat and Suresh Kanekar. (2001). Prediction of and recommendation for honest behavior. the Journal of social psychology. Bombay, 130(5), 597-607 The authors of this article explore the determination of honesty by use of SEU model. The article is based on an experiment that was conducted at the University of Bombay involving 480 students of different genders. The experiment was divided into four variables that is role, location, level of temptation and subject sex. This model assumes that from among several behavior alternative of an individual, an individual will always attempt to find an alternative whose outcomes contain the greatest utility. The subjective expected utility resulting from a course of action stand for a product of subjective probability of its happening and its utility subject. In the experiment, the main concern was about the role of stimulus person who when he picked the money dropped by a person will choose whether to return or not. The roles chosen because of their relevance to the circumstances include bystander, beggar, police and pickpocket. The SEU of the dishonest behavior is expected to move from the lowest level to the highest level. After the experiment was conducted, the results show the usefulness of using subjective expected utility model in moral judgments and behaviors. It also shows that the norms of honesty are so much governed by the functions of the people involved. The female students reveal a bigger ethical sensitivity than the male students, these shows the difference in socialization in male and female students. The observed possibility of honesty was greater and recommendation for honesty was stronger for the functions of police and bystander in comparison with those of beggars and pickpockets. All the result was interpreted by the use of SEU model. Denis Bouyssou & Thierry Marchant. (2011). Subjective expected utility without preferences. Journal of Mathematical Psychology. New York: Elsevier Inc. The authors of this article are proposing a subjective expected utility method that is based on primitives; these means that an act will be judged in two ways, either attractive or unattractive. Though many experiments have shown its inability to explain behavior of several objects, it has remained an important point in several works in decision under uncertainty. This is as a result of distinctive combination of simplicity, analytical tractability and normative appeal. To get the behavioral foundation for this model, the article explains that four routes need to be followed. The first route work together with a finite set of states and a finite set of consequences. Having worked together it then applies separation techniques to make sure that the resulting equalities and inequalities should not be contradictory. The second one was put forward by savage. This method does not make any hypothesis on the set of consequences but it needs rich set of states. The third one is a bit similar to the second; this one imposes richness on the consequences set at the same time working together with the finite set of states. The last route is lotteries that use objective probabilities in their analysis. The article provides explanation on working with different primitives and if there is any act, the decision maker (DM) is in a position of telling whether the findings are attractive or not attractive. The article is organized into four sections; the first one introduces the setting model and notation, the second one present the conditions applied in the article, the main results are presented in the third section and conclusion in the fifth section. Andersson E.K. & Mos T.P. Imagery and implementation intention: A randomizes controlled trial of interventions to increase exercise behavior in the general population. Psychology of Sport and Exercise. 12 (2011) 63-70 The article explain an experiment that was carried out to find out the role of pre-conscious process in exercise behavior change by butting into comparison the efficiency of 2 exercise intervention. These interventions are guided imaginary and manipulation of implementation intention. There was a prediction that guided imaginary intervention can be more effective in motivating those who are participating in the study to exercise at the same time increasing raising the self-efficacy and real exercise behavior. A relaxation imaginary condition was added and this permits the study to further investigate if it is true the suggestions and techniques in the guided imaginary script truly cause behavior change. The outcome reveals that in accordance with predictions as per the prediction, those taking part in the guided imaginary group raises the exercise levels most. Both groups were successful since they managed to increase exercise level greatly more than the control group. The design of the study was made in such a way the participants were placed in three conditions, that is guided imagery, implementation intention and relaxation. The outcome variables were measured before and after intervention, the variables were exercise behavior, self-efficacy and motivation. 50 participants participated in the study and they were supposed to monitor their physical activities for a period of two weeks. The study was successfully since it managed to increase the behavior by use of guided imagery and implement intention intervention. Denis B ouyssou & Marc Pirlot. (2008). on some ordinal models for decision making under uncertainty. Ann O per Res. London: Springer Science+ Business Media. 163: 19–48 Following the specific needs from artificial intelligence, several models for decision making have been proposed, these models deviate from the original models such as SEU. The models proposed are aimed at achieving simple decision rules that can be easily implemented by use of better algorithms based on inputs that are better that the ones used in the original models. One of these models is likely dominance (LD). To achieve this, the acts are compared only on their basis consequences in the greatest plausible states or the classical criteria can be refined for decision making in total ignorance. This article explores general axiomatic framework that will be used in decision under uncertainty that will contain both the SEU and LD as specific cases. The article also proposes alternative characterization of the preferences relations that result by use of likely dominance rule inside the general framework. These characterizations provide us with an opportunity to emphasize the main difference features of such relations. To obtain these, the article is organized into four sections. The first section introduces the setting and notation to be worked on. The LD model which is being emphasized on is introduced in the second section. In section four, the general framework for decision making under uncertainty is analyzed and lastly characterizes the relation that can be achieved by use of LD method inside the general framework. Caroline free, Jane Ogden, & Ray Lee. (2005).Young women’s contraception use as a contextual And dynamic behavior: A qualitative study. Psychology and Health. London: Rout ledge tailor and Francis group, 20(5): 673–690 Several models have been applied to contraception use; such models include SEU and social cognition model. But these methods have failed since they do not consider contextual factors or changes in contraception use. This article therefore explores the current method that is being used, which is qualitative methodology which results in a model of contraception. The article also explains the important findings from different models and explains the way these models address the limitations resulting from the previous methods. A study which involves women between the age of 16 and 25 was conducted through interviewing; they describe their use and non use of the contraception in forms of 3 higher orders namely social goals, perceptions of vulnerability and constraints. The roles of social goals involve factors such as risk, life aspirations and sexual identity. The perception of vulnerability varies across population, some showing denial of risk others showing unrealistic optimism. The area of constrains involve factors like personal knowledge, the role of others, and structural and situation factors. The study in the article shows that these three factors compete and sometimes contradict one another. It also shows that the factors are dynamic and change with time depending on the experience, wide changes in the situation and the emergence of the latest information. It is important that instead of holding stable attitudes that predict one outcome, presently women are shown how to hold multifaceted complex and contradictory attitudes towards contraception upon the social goal that have been used to evaluate against. Monica Ortendahl. (2008). Models based on value and probability in health improve shared decision making. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice. Stockholm: Blackwell Publishing. No.14 714–717 Since diagnosis and treatment are main important things to a doctor, there is a model that is based on values and probability and this provides a conceptual frame work for doctor’s judgments and decision. At the same time, this model also facilitates the integration of clinical and biomedical knowledge into a decision. In diagnosis and treatment, reasoning skills has been found not to be perfect in many circumstances and it has been found that these diagnosis errors are made as a result of failure to integrate the clinical data in the right way more that obtaining inaccurate data. As a result of these, a better decision method has to be found and the author of this article explores modeling in clinical decision created from the perspective of a patient and doctor. This model is used as a tool for engaging in mutual and shared decision making process in treatment roles. It can also be used successively in the process when moving from the diagnosis to the chosen treatment with changes over time. They are also applied when selecting cut-offs while treatment is changed Shared decision making is significant since it helps doctors understand their patience treatment behavior hence increasing their satisfaction and motivation hence complying with their regimes. The article author argues about different understanding of decision making relationship that takes into account the functions of tradeoffs amid medical regimes and lifestyle choices that shapes the outcome and process in clinical decision making process. As presented in the article, clinical judgment and decision and complex and does not have simple solution hence decision counseling can assist in making clear personal preferences that are related to health behavior choices hence facilitating the achievement of ideals informed and shared decision making. SEU is one of the methods in decision theory. The method was expanded by savage after it was started by the Ramsey and Von Neumann. This method works by combining together two subjective concepts, a personal utility function and a personal probability distribution. In this method probabilities are treated as being subjective and the worth is expressed in form of utility. The goodness of this model is that it reduces different forms of decision to similar set of primitives which are options, probabilities and utilities, deciding the one that can make universal truth. I choose this topic since it help me understand better how decision was made in the past and the current better methods of making decision. The topic highlights different forms of decision making and how they are applied in making a decision. The decision theory methods discussed in this topic include SEU, social cognition models (SC) and likely dominance (LD). The topic provides understanding on these methods and I have managed to learn how different methods work and which model work best in communication. I learn that the simplest way of making a decision is through putting down all feasible courses of actions and for every action all possible consequences should be enumerated. For every consequence, look at his attractiveness or unattractiveness of its occurrence as well as the probability that will be incurred if the action is carried out. The expected worth of every consequence is computed through multiplying its worth by its probability of occurrence. The expected worth of an action being tested is the total sum of the expected worth of all probable consequences. After the calculations are through, the action with the largest expected worth is chosen. There are various key findings from this study, in the study of the use of contraceptive, the past works emphasized that contraceptive use result from believes and evaluation of one outcome resulting in a total negative or positive attitude towards these behavior. But the key findings from this study show that there are several different socially significant outcomes that can be evaluated in relation to the use of contraceptives. In treatment and diagnosis, a decision model based on values and probability provides a frame work for doctors’ judgment and decision making and fast track the integration of biomedical and clinical understanding into a diagnostic resolution. According to the findings better services will be offered to the patience if they participate in clinical process. In judgment and prediction of good behavior, the finding suggests that norms about honesty are governed by the roles of the players and their recommendations are strongly influence by pragmatic recommendations like the risk of being found. The concerns of interest in the topics are how the modern forms of decision making such as SEU helps solve decision problems. These modern methods have unique combination of simplicity, analytical tractability and normative appeal. My concern of interest is how the SEU relate with other methods in decision theory such as LD. Read More