Strategic Challenges Australia Faces over the Next Decade - Literature review Example

Strategic Challenges Australia Faces over the Next Decade Name Course Tutor Date Introduction The strategic position of Australia as a nation has for long been viewed as more favourable when compared to many other countries. On the other hand, according to Tellis et.al (2011), Australia is currently at an intricate juncture1. This middle-sized democracy located within the Southern border of the maritime Asia has been argued to be facing various strategic challenges which are likely to pose significant challenges to the Australian government in terms of managing the state’s strategic policy, which may likely shape its international environment in the coming years. According to the Australian Government (2010), a number of emerging strategic challenges have been cited as confronting the nation including intergenerational challenges, threats due to climate change, increasing pressures within its health system and security2. Such pressures, the consequent decisions and resultant outcomes are therefore argued to be able to exert significant influence on the state’s future success. This particular paper therefore intends to provide an analysis as regards the three most significant strategic challenges, arising from the strategic environment, which Australia faces over the next decade. In addition, the paper will rank and analyze the three challenges while also discussing their implications for Australian foreign and defense policy. According to Heinrichs (2010), one of the most significant strategic challenges, arising from the strategic environment, which Australia faces over the next decade, is the shifting/changing power balances within the Asian continent which is believed to be initiating new calculations amongst the major powers in the region3. As Tellis et.al (2011) highlights, Australia is being confronted by a simultaneous rise/emergence of China and its Asian counterpart, India (the two great powers of Asia) 4. According to Tellis et.al (2011), in the year 2009, China surpassed Japan to be the top most trading partner to Australia5. This particular transition became a landmark in the history of Australia as it marked the first time such a status was seized by a nation that was not generally a guarantor for Canberra’s security, a strong ally to any of Australia’s allies, or sharing the nation’s democratic values. This likely contest for Asia in which the two powers loom large poses significant and new strategic challenges to the security of Australia which has for a long time been relying on an open and reliable order endorsed by America dominance. According to Australian Government (2012), currently, the nation (Australia) seemingly enjoys much from the two separate worlds6. The rapidly growing economies of China and its other Asian power, India provides lucrative markets crucial not only for Australia’s rich energy reserves but also its minerals. On the other hand, America’s pre-eminence guarantees Australia’s security.However, despite this favourable position, Lyon (2007) & Heinrichs (2010) highlight that questions are already emerging concerning what duration such good times will last7,8. In addition, questions regarding whether Australia has indeed an effective strategy for the Indo-Pacific era involving Indian as well as the Chinese strength. In this particular context therefore, Australia as a nation has began to face strategic challenges as well as decisions arising from the strategic environment. These mainly involve the potential choices to be made between America (its ally on matters of security) and China (its major economic/trade partner) that purchases about 25% of the country’s exports with further deepening links in terms of tourism,education,business and migration. The hardest question thus dwells around whether/how Australia-America alliance might in the near future be brought into play in case of a likely military conflict with Beijing (Tellis et.al, 2011). 9Largely, there is still a question of whether Australia as a nation might disagree with its ally, America or its other allies as regards its uncomfortable position regarding the accommodation of Chinese interests within their regional order. The recent endorsement of this particular alliance by Canberra, for instance, implies that while a short-term divergence between the two nations is unlikely, it may pose significant risks to Australia in the long run as contended by some analysts. According to Tellis et.al (2011), India’s rise seriously complicates the power dynamics in Asia besides making it potentially and highly beneficial to Australia10. India is not only the fourth largest export market for Australian goods currently but also one of Australia’s fastest growing importers, a growth estimated to be about 20 percent annually. India purchases approximately 7 percent of the Australian exports, a factor that is encouraging Canberra to eagerly complement it with a dedicated partnership. On the other hand, Australia as a nation is experiencing frustrations associated with this including frustrations regarding the establishment of a political trust as well as strategic relevance, in spite of the shared democratic values and common security interests. This has serious implications to Australia as the nation’s progress will most probably call for policy choices in Canberra that may be awkward. Looking forward, Australia will still face various challenges as it simultaneously engages China and its other Asian partner, India while also adapting the existing U.S alliance. As such, Canberra may in future be forced to make a choice between China’s Beijing and America’s Washington in addition to making a choice between China’s Beijing and India’s New Delhi (Tellis et.al, 2011) 11. In general, there seem to be parallels and significant contrasts between the relations of Australia with China just as with India. Its relation with the two entails economic enmeshment with the societal links also growing significantly through business, education, migration and tourism. Nonetheless the qualitative disharmony in the relation of Australia with China and its Asian partner, India are manifested mainly through value-based matters that significantly impact on Australian foreign and defense policy. Security forms the second most significant strategic challenge arising from the strategic environment, which Australia faces over the next decade. Australia’s strategic environment incorporates various elements of change and that of continuity. According to Heinrichs (2010), Australian strategists have argued that recent years have actually been easy for Australia as a nation. Since Vietnam War, the country’s security has often been guaranteed by fortuitous circumstances12. A prolonged period of the U.S primacy within the Asian continent has ensured that the region remains open and organized. This has enhanced trade as well as economic growth while also preventing relations among Asian powers from becoming a destabilizing competition capable of damaging Australia’s security. However, Cook et.al (2010) is quick to point out that the next decades appear to be less tractable as several other security challenges from non-state actors emerged13. The past decade’s events transformed Australia’s focus on its national security. The particular events elevated terrorism to be a significant threat not only to Australia but also globally. In the current decade, Australia has also become conscious of potential future dangers associated with an increasing dependence on the digital technology. While Australia seems to have adapted effectively to the changes, a number of underlying challenges still remain. New and very complex security challenges and issues are commanding significant attention in Australia and the world as a whole (O’Neil, 2012)14. In particular, the various non-state actors including criminal and the threatening terrorist organizations continue posing enduring challenge to Australia’s national security and even that of its regional partners. Some of the nation’s smaller neighbours, and who are presented with the challenge of fewer resources are seemingly incapable of effectively deterring such as activities, hence are particularly vulnerable. As this weakness is likely to have serious implications for Australia’s national security, Australia cannot treat the terrorism threat and the appropriate responses as a single-state issue or in isolation. As highlighted by Williams (2008), Australia and its regional partners share a common understanding that threats arising from terrorists’ networks are constantly improving and will continuously evolve even as the country’s individual as well as shared responses increasingly become well-targeted and sophisticated15. A distinct but similarly disturbing development for many countries involved is the current emergence of the self-radicalized as well as lone-actor terrorists. The Bali bomb attack of the year 2005 is for instance viewed as representing a significant development in terrorism with serious implications for the nation’s security perception. The horrifying Bali bombing clearly highlighted the regional terrorism aspects. Out of the approximated 200 deaths, nearly were citizens of Australia. This particular dramatic event is argued to have increased Australia’s concerns as regards its vulnerability to the catastrophic terrorism, which according to many is comparable to the experiences during the 1942 bombing of Darwin by Japan (Ayson, 2003)16. Such terrorism experiences have had significant implications for security perceptions in Australia. Not shockingly, the post Bali debate has witnessed renewed calls requiring Australia to primarily focus on the security situation within it’s the immediate region bordering it. According to Ayson (2003), in as much as it may seem easy to contend that Canberra has a simple choice of fighting the terrorism war either at its door step or carrying out the same in the Middle East and Central Asia, such is not the case. Such simple choices are likely to be unavailable17. For instance, the pursuit of al-Qaeda’s involvement in Bali bomb attacks underscores global dimensions to regional problems. With the current increasing globalization on various fronts, efforts to focus around region of strategic interests may come unstuck owing to the incapability to quarantine-off international linkages. In fact, there has been increasing concerns on linkages between the regional Islamist factions and global terror networks, especially the al-Qaeda networks. As such, Williams (2008) highlights that Australia considers war on terrorism as signaling and warranting significant developments not only at the regional level but on the global scale as well rather than on individual basis18. This argument therefore highlights the need for co-operation between Australia and other nations. Likewise, cyberspace is currently a significant strategic asset for the contemporary and digitally-enabled Australian nation. The nation is strategically positioned to lead globally with regards to the current digital era. According to the Australian Government, Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (2013), greater connectivity provides greater opportunities with regards to participation in the competitive global economy. On the other hand, the open nature and accessibility of the internet (the significant benefits in the digital era) also brings about risks associated with malicious activities. Intelligence services that are foreign-based along with criminal organizations are considered as capable of using the internet in order to gain access to Australian systems.Extremists, on the other hand, are considered as able to effortlessly co-ordinate their actions, communicate and also radicalize. As O’Neil (2012) highlights, the digital, cyber-enabled risks are escalating and changing very fast. The increasing malicious cases associated with the cyber have definitely juxtaposed the various threats of the currently hyper-connected globe against the significant social as well as economic benefits derived from the internet. The implication is that Australia’s national security as well as law enforcement bodies has been forced to focus immediately on the effective strategies of combating the cyber-related threats, though not to the detriment of the privacy of the Australian people or the wider benefits derived from the online environment. Environmental issues form the third greatest strategic challenge arising from the strategic environment, which Australia faces over the next decade. According to the Australian Government (2010), climate change appears to be the defining inter-generational issue in the current times19. Ecologically sustainable Development thus presents a significant challenge currently faced by the Australian government. As highlighted by the Australian Government, Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities (2013), the earth is continuously warming, and there is a possibility that Australia is already witnessing the impacts that come along with climatic changes within its environment20. The potential impacts on Australian environment as well as its economy are argued to be severe. As a dry habitable continent, this country is specifically susceptible to climatic changes and will be among the countries that will be hit hardest as well as fastest by the impacts of climate change. Despite Australia’s climate being highly variable, some evidence (which continuously accumulates) reveals that Australia’s temperatures are escalating while the patterns of rainfall distribution keep changing. According to the Australian Government, Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities (2013), models predict that in future Australia’s yearly average temperatures are most likely to go up by approximately 1° Centigrade, which is additionally stated as above the temperatures experienced during the year 1990.Drying is argued to be likely within the southern parts of Australia. Climatic change is thus argued to have profound future impacts as far as changes in Australian environment is concerned. This is in effect will present widespread and serious risks to the Australian ecosystems, its native vegetation, the water security, sytems of agricultural production and finally spreading the same risks to the coastal communities. On the other hand, conservative estimates have indicated that unmitigated climatic changes will definitely reduce the Australian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by approximately 8% in future in comparison to a situation where climatic changes are inexistent. In addition to this, unmitigated climatic changes pose calamitous risks just as it creates significant non-market costs not captured within the estimates (Australian Government, 2010) 21. Climatic change is thus argued to have profound future impacts in Australia. In the absence of global action against climatic change, therefore, more severe weather events will likely threaten the lives of Australians, their health and the Australian infrastructure.Similarly; this will also negatively impact on all the irrigated agriculture within Murray-Darling basin where the irrigation is likely to cease (Australian Government, 2010) 22. While water supplies will also be at greater risk, national icons attracting tourists such as parks and barrier reefs might be destroyed. In general, climate change is not only restricted to Australia as it is a global phenomenon that has been known to warrant immediate and effective measures before its impacts escalate beyond control. Due to this it is also within the Australia’s national interest to reduce carbon emissions to a significant 60% below the 2000 levels prior to the year 2050.The Australian government is as such compelled to meet a set of targets and actions that are internationally calibrated for the year 2020 (Australian Government, 2010) 23.The major mechanisms perceived by the Australian government to be able to reduce carbon emissions in Australia include the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme complemented by several mitigation policies such as the Renewable Energy Target and the Clean Energy Initiative meant to promote the use of solar energy and other sources of renewable energy including clean coal. Conclusion From the above analysis, it is clearly evident that the changing global environment is looming large for the national policies of Australia, as a consequence demanding that Australia focus on its ability to effectively confront the emerging risks while also capitalizing on the opportunities within the region. This requires a continuous assessment of its diplomatic priorities. The ever changing environment also calls for consistent as well as bilateral engagements in order to enable it strengthen its efforts in bilateral forums, a factor that highlights the requirement for perceptive intelligence. More than other government activities, the national security ought to integrate domestic policies with its dynamic international voice. It has to continuously strive for effective continuum (from the community, through government to the global arena).Infact, more than before, effective security of the nation is more about integrated reactions to complex security challenges both at the national and international level. In terms of cyber-related threats, innovations are considered as quite crucial as the digital, cyber-enabled threats grow and change rapidly. For instance, in future, Australia ought to dedicate more effort on pin-pointing high risk activities as well as the individuals involved quite early. Bibliography Australian Government, Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities. State of the Environment 2011 (SoE 2011), Retrieved on 29th August, 2013 from http://www.environment.gov.au/soe/2011/report/key-findings.html, 2013 Australian Government, Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. Strong and Secure: A Strategy for Australia’s National Security, 2013 Ayson, Robert. Australia’s Defense and Security Challenges: A Tale of Three “Posts”.NZ International Review, 2003 Australian Government .Australia in the Asian Century White Paper, Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, 2012 Australian Government. Australia to 2050: Future Challenges the 2010, An Intergenerational Report Overview, Common Wealth of Australia, 2010 Beveridge, David. Australia’s Future Threat Space: Strategic Risks and Systematic Vulnerabilities, Vol.2 (2), 2006 Cook, Malcolm et.al.Power and Choice: Asian Security Futures. Lowy Institute for International Policy, 2010 Heinrichs, Raoul.Little power, big choices: Australia's Strategic Future, 2010 Lyon, Rod. Australia’s Strategic Fundamentals. Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 2007 O’Neil, Andrew. Conceptualizing Future Threats to Australia’s Security, Australian National University, 2012 Tellis, Ashley, Tanner, Travis & Keough, Jessica.Asia Responds to Its Rising Powers: China and India, Volume 11 of Strategic Asia, NBR, 2011 Williams, Paul. Security Studies: An Introduction, Routledge, 2008 Read More

On the other hand, America’s pre-eminence guarantees Australia’s security.However, despite this favourable position, Lyon (2007) & Heinrichs (2010) highlight that questions are already emerging concerning what duration such good times will last7,8. In addition, questions regarding whether Australia has indeed an effective strategy for the Indo-Pacific era involving Indian as well as the Chinese strength. In this particular context therefore, Australia as a nation has began to face strategic challenges as well as decisions arising from the strategic environment.

These mainly involve the potential choices to be made between America (its ally on matters of security) and China (its major economic/trade partner) that purchases about 25% of the country’s exports with further deepening links in terms of tourism,education,business and migration. The hardest question thus dwells around whether/how Australia-America alliance might in the near future be brought into play in case of a likely military conflict with Beijing (Tellis et.al, 2011). 9Largely, there is still a question of whether Australia as a nation might disagree with its ally, America or its other allies as regards its uncomfortable position regarding the accommodation of Chinese interests within their regional order.

The recent endorsement of this particular alliance by Canberra, for instance, implies that while a short-term divergence between the two nations is unlikely, it may pose significant risks to Australia in the long run as contended by some analysts. According to Tellis et.al (2011), India’s rise seriously complicates the power dynamics in Asia besides making it potentially and highly beneficial to Australia10. India is not only the fourth largest export market for Australian goods currently but also one of Australia’s fastest growing importers, a growth estimated to be about 20 percent annually.

India purchases approximately 7 percent of the Australian exports, a factor that is encouraging Canberra to eagerly complement it with a dedicated partnership. On the other hand, Australia as a nation is experiencing frustrations associated with this including frustrations regarding the establishment of a political trust as well as strategic relevance, in spite of the shared democratic values and common security interests. This has serious implications to Australia as the nation’s progress will most probably call for policy choices in Canberra that may be awkward.

Looking forward, Australia will still face various challenges as it simultaneously engages China and its other Asian partner, India while also adapting the existing U.S alliance. As such, Canberra may in future be forced to make a choice between China’s Beijing and America’s Washington in addition to making a choice between China’s Beijing and India’s New Delhi (Tellis et.al, 2011) 11. In general, there seem to be parallels and significant contrasts between the relations of Australia with China just as with India.

Its relation with the two entails economic enmeshment with the societal links also growing significantly through business, education, migration and tourism. Nonetheless the qualitative disharmony in the relation of Australia with China and its Asian partner, India are manifested mainly through value-based matters that significantly impact on Australian foreign and defense policy. Security forms the second most significant strategic challenge arising from the strategic environment, which Australia faces over the next decade.

Australia’s strategic environment incorporates various elements of change and that of continuity. According to Heinrichs (2010), Australian strategists have argued that recent years have actually been easy for Australia as a nation. Since Vietnam War, the country’s security has often been guaranteed by fortuitous circumstances12. A prolonged period of the U.S primacy within the Asian continent has ensured that the region remains open and organized. This has enhanced trade as well as economic growth while also preventing relations among Asian powers from becoming a destabilizing competition capable of damaging Australia’s security.

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