Estimating the Possibility of Risk Occurring - Report Example

Risk assessment Name: Course code: Student Number Tutor: Date: Introduction The main purpose of this presentation assessment is to analyze, identify and come up with several ways of calculating the risk. It will also give an overall skeleton of the type of risks that seems to be a threat to the residence of UK. It includes the use of graphs as a way of comparing the likelihood of occurrence and their consequences. The document will also outline the procedures that the government does to curb up with risk in the affected victims. Risk Assessment For different risks to be identified and analyzed, past analysis and numerical models have to be used to estimate the possibility of risk occurring. Possibility of the two using the judgment of expertise in risk analysis, can be employed to give approximate possibility of the occurrence of the event. Risk can also be assessed by the use of two different risk matrices of two different scales which may not be compared directly to one another thus one may be having high threat than the other. Rating of the risk Risks can be quantified or qualified through several fatalities that may be linked to emergencies as well as ailments or injury that may cause to the people for a period that follows the occurrence of the emergencies. Risks can also be quantified or qualified through the disruption to people’s social daily lives. Different social disruption are accounted ranging from limited access to institutions like schools and health centers to inability to get significant services like water, edibles and fuel. Furthermore, it can bring harm to the economy and also can cause impacts on psychological stability thus causing widespread anxiety and lose of courage to the communities. Type of risks The following risks are considered to be of high priority by the government taking into accounting both possibility of occurrence and their impact. Pandemic Influenza It has remained to be one of the greatest risky emergencies due to influenza H1N1 outbreak in 2009 which never matched the anticipated severity. Its symptoms may resemble that of pandemic influenza though may be more severe. It spreads remarkably fast from one person to another if there is no immunity and can have global health consequences. For instance during the last decade between 1918 and 1919 the Spanish flu caused severe illnesses that resulted to adverse deaths of about 20-40 million people worldwide aged between 20-45 thus causing disruption in the country. Although the severity of Asian and Hong Kong was less in 1957 and 1958, several illnesses were also realized having deaths of 1-4 million deaths of both the young and old. Results of pandemic Influenza According to experts, there is high chance of occurrence of other pandemic and is difficult to forecast its impacts and time of occurrence. Basing on the past scientific and historical sources, there is existence of the following probabilities: There could be infections to millions of people around the world therefore, causing several disruptions and deaths of 2-7.4 million as estimated by world health organization. It is also anticipated that most of the population in UK, up to one half could show signs, and this may result to several deaths, which may interfere with the economy and social status of the people. This may result to stoppage of the provision of basic services; decrease the level of production posing a lot of difficulties. Some organizations may reduce provision of their services due to high absenteeism of their employees who have experienced the impacts of the pandemics. Response by the Government to pandemic Influenza The international organizations are working actively with the government by taking prompt steps that could allow the government to prevent and minimize the pandemic spread within the country. This can be realized by carrying out research and coming up with steps of preventing and detecting the pandemic. The government also has a plan to provide antiviral that could treat half of the population. With the advice from the scientists, the government has to stock oseltamivir and zanamivir in order to ensure adequate and flexible response. The government has a plan to meet several demands of pandemic viruses that may cause intense and milder impacts instead of focusing on the planning of worst cases. It may also come up with ways of managing and ending the pandemic. Flooding Nature of the risk There are three main types of flooding in UK. These include coastal or tidal flooding, flooding from streams and rivers and surface flooding that is caused by excess rain before entering any water body. In a scenario, where there is a collapse of a dam this could result to serious flooding, and this falls under accident and industrial section. Types of flooding Coastal flooding According to this flooding, several impacts can be felt in a single occurrence of the event. In UK, the most significant flooding occurred in 1953 caused by extremely large waves and storms that broke flood controls. Several towns and villages near to the coast were swept, and many people were killed and damage of other facilities. Inland Flooding This is caused by high rainfall evidenced during the summer. During the wet summer of 2007, several households and businesses in England were mostly affected including infrastructure and evacuation of people from their homes because of inaccessibility of vital amenities. Furthermore, the flooding in Cumbria in 2007 caused the collapse of bridges and stoppages of road transport. Response by the Government The government has come up with several measures to manage and minimize the possibility and impact of flooding. Scottish Environment Protection Agency and flood forecasting center are in charge of monitoring and predicting the UK system. As far as ground flooding is concerned in England and Wales, automated flooding system has been given by the Environment Agency to warn the customers who are registered on the system. The government further takes other measures by taking into consideration recommendation of the Pitt Review done in 2007 summer flooding program in reduction of future occurrence of flood. The recommendations included: better development of institutional water surface management and also upgrading the overall response of emergencies for protection of key infrastructure and essential services. It was also suggested that there is need to develop appropriate steps to take in any new development of risk assessment. Volcanic Hazard Nature of the risk In UK, this kind of risk has several impacts, which include aviation disruption and depending on the quantity of emitted gases into the atmosphere, it may have sound impact on public health leading to other subsequent impacts. Types of volcanic hazards Explosive volcanic eruptions They occur when thick magma rises up the volcano surface building a lot of pressure with no gases emitted. At the surface, explosion of gas blast magma and fragments of rock released to the atmosphere. The quick rising magma may be explosive without any regard to its components especially when it interacts with water. Effusive Volcanic Eruption This type of eruption usually happens when hot magma is at the top of the volcano. Since gas can easily separate itself from running magma, it can easily escape into the atmosphere over long period of time. Large eruptions of this type may release into the atmosphere large volume gases and aerosols. According to historical and geological analysis, there has been significant release of sulphur dioxide, chlorine and fluorine to the atmosphere causing a lot of pollution in the Northern part of Europe and UK at large. Government Response The establishment of International Volcano Watch by the International Civil Aviation Organization comprising of nine Volcano Ash Advisory Centers situated all over the world charged with the responsibility of collecting and dispatching of valuable information concerning volcanic ash that may pose threats to air users. London VAAC is responsible for monitoring UK Iceland and its partnering countries. With the recent volcanic eruption in 2010, sound measures have been taken to monitor the hazards of volcanic eruption on order to understand the impacts of explosive effusive eruptions. This may be achieve d by having solid relations with overseas organizations and having strings of networks with expertise on dangers of volcanic eruptions Severe space Weather Nature of the Risk Changes of weather on earth such as blow of wind extreme snows and rainfall have various impacts on the dry land. On the other hand, weather on the space which may include geomagnetic storms, storms from radiations and disturbances from the solar radio has different terrestrial effects. Types of severe space Weather Storms and Gales Recently, severe storm was seen in 1987 which destroyed estimated of about 15 million trees in parts of England. There were fewer deaths and injuries during the peak wind speed since it occurred at night and passed through a highly populated place. On the contrary, the storm that was realized in 1990 which happened during the day was more severe and more vigorous. The effects of this storm resulted to a lot of deaths although trees and property were least affected (Moulden 2007). Low Temperatures and heavy Snow This comes as a result of extreme and prolonged low temperatures especially during the winter season as was realized between 2009- 2010. At this period, there is a heavy fell in snow, and most of the areas are covered by snow up to 10cm or more in thickness during the entire period. Heat Waves These are high temperatures of about 320C or above as defined Met office results to heat waves. It can also been experienced during the hot summer, for instance in 2003 when 2045 lives were claimed due to extreme heat. From then the introduction of Heat-Health Watch System has led to reduction of loss of lives.( Mees and Bonham J. 2007) Effects of Heat Waves This has resulted to excess heating vehicle engines leading to rampant breakdown as well hindrance to transport and logistics as a result of more heat on road surfaces. There is also increased number of patients who are admitted to various hospitals as a result of sunburn, problems associated with respiration and heat exhaustion. Drought These are events that vary in their intensity and usually do not arrive without prior warning. Change of climatic conditions may cause more droughts although more frequent planning can meet most challenges (Melcrum 2008) Government Response Met office is responsible in giving warnings to the government. It issues routine messages of advices to the government by use of traffic light system on when the severe weather is ready. Met office also issues early warnings when it has certainty of occurrence of severe weather in next few days. Most of water companies have trigger points to show some actions to be taken during different drought stages, and this will manage the demand and supply of water (Skinner June 2004) Animal Disease Nature of the Risk Several numbers of cases of foot and mouth diseases has been recorded in UK. Other notable examples include avian influenza or bird flu. Scale should be analyzed before considering the likelihood of such happening. Types of Animal Diseases Non-Zoometric Animal Diseases These are diseases that are not transmitted by human beings. They include foot and mouth diseases, classical swine fever and equine infectious anemia. Urgent action is required to control the spread of these diseases. Foot and mouth disease is transmitted swiftly directly or indirectly in contact or through the air. For swine fever, there are two types: classical which was realized in UK and African. Both of them are caused by various viruses and are transmitted through the pigs (Grant Thornton 2008) Government Response The government has taken several measures in prevention of animal diseases that may occur and also the initiative of predicting global and local trends which include: a) Global monitoring of the outbreak of diseases b) Taking the initiatives of reporting new development c) Observing changes in issues pertaining risks Furthermore, the government has joined hands with animal keepers private surgeons and operational partners both locally and nationally in providing precautions and how to detect threats thus providing pieces of advice through various avenues (HR Zone 2007). Conclusion Having said and done, risk assessment is one of the essential elements in rating the intensities of various anticipated risks that may happen to a nation or an individual. However, not all risks can be avoided entirely but its severity can be managed. Therefore, different ways have been developed by the government to curb up with them. Reference list European Alliance for CSR, 2008, Valuing non-financial performance: A European framework for company and investor dialogue, London Grant Thornton, 2008, Recruitment and Retention: A necessity Not a Choice. Bangkok HR Zone, 2007, Operation good guys: HR and CSR. Dublin: Dublin press. Mees, A, & Bonham, J 2007, Corporate Social responsibility Belongs with HR Canadian HR Reporter. Ottawa Melcrum, 2008, Special report on internal Branding, London, UK Moulden, J 2007, We are the new Radicals: A manifesto for reinventing yourself and Saving the World. New York: McGraw hill. Skinner, C 2004, Links Between CSR and HR. Ethical Corporation Magazine, London: OUP Read More