The Art and Science of Judgement and Decision Making - Personal Statement Example

The Art and Science of Judgement and Decision Making I am writing this paper as a make up for the six surveys that I failed to turn in and the 3.75 hours’ worth of class time that I have missed. Before these consecutive absences, there was an occurrence where my wallet was stolen, along with my phone, iPad, and computer being brutalized. On the first day in which I missed my classes, I spent the morning at a repair store trying to get my computer fixed in order to use it for my chemistry lab later in the day. I had anticipated that the visit to the computer repair shop would cost me a few minutes as it would just involve a slight repair on my vandalized computer. However, to my astonishment I spent more time there than I had thought before anyone could be free to work on it. With the amount of work that the people have to handle at the store it was totally impossible for me to explain the urgency of my issue and at least have it fixed at the earliest convenience. The result was that I was made to wait and follow the queue as other customers got served. I got served at last, but by that time it was too late to attend a session with you. I also missed my poetry class courtesy of the long wait at the computer repair store. Therefore, I ended up missing both my judgment/decision making class and my poetry class. My second absence was on the pizza night. I tried texting a student from class and wandered around campus to find the event, but both were to no avail. I then chose not to explain my absences until you confronted me about them. Considering that I had already missed another session earlier I did not find it prudent to email you as I thought that the integrity of my explanation would be put into task. I therefore waited for you to confront me or for an opportunity when I would have to meet you and explain on my absence with the computer. This, at least would help in proving that I was not making up a cooked explanation to cover up for my irresponsibility. I however, take the blame for not making a better decision especially taking that you have taken us through various units in decision making process that I ought to have employed to wade through the predicament I was in. I was totally embarrassed that I failed to turn up for both and this hindered my correct decision making process. I came to realize later that there were many other options that I would have employed to come up with a working plan that I would engage to ensure that I attended the classes and also had my computer repaired. After missing the classes, it was also not wise to stay and wait for you to remind me or try to solicit for an explanation on my absence. I was the one supposed to have initiated the explanation to show my interest on the same and carry the responsibility of my inaptness. The main biases used during my decision making processes described above were illusion of control and confirmation bias. Illusion of Control was utilized when I thought I had control over how long I would be in the repair shop; I was intending on my procedure to be an in-and-out process, however it took longer than I expected. In a normal set up, it is supposed that visiting such a place should not take much of one’s time. Following my schedule, I was to briefly drop at the repair shop, have the computer fixed, then rush to class before it commenced. In this, I failed in an elementary decision making process. I ought to have considered other factors such as the number of people who are supposed to be served by the same repair guys before I visited the place. It is true that I am not the only person who can be befallen by such a predicament and so the number of students having the problem are many. This led to me waiting to be served as the classes continued. Illusion of control makes one think and plan for things that he/she has no control over. On my case I tried to plan on the time that I would spend at the computer shop yet I did not have power over it. After all, I would only get served when a chance was accorded to me. On top of that, I had not considered a scenario where the repair shop would not help in my case. All these are disposing the illusion I was having and which played a major part in the turn of events that day. To prevent that I should have considered all the factors played various roles in determining the time that I spent at the repair store. Illusion of control can affect many potentially good decisions. The decision to visit the repair shop in the morning was not bad. I had anticipated that the process would not take much of my time. However, by having the illusion that I would not spend much time there, after all fixing the computer is a small process that would spend an expert just a couple of minutes, I made the mistake. I should have realized immediately I arrived at the repair shop that the process would take more time than I had anticipated and so solicit for alternative plans that would have the same repaired and my classes attended to. Both were equally important considering that I was to use the computer for a chemistry class later in the day. The second bias, confirmation bias, was used when deciding whether or not to email you my excuse for missing the event. As I indicated earlier, I was emotional and stressed that I had missed the class and so this created a bias in the way I perceived the idea of emailing you and explaining my situation. Whereas you could have understood and projected a possible measure to address it, I also thought that you would be angry at me. Another wrong. Since I had given you an excuse before, from my perspective I felt that you were not convinced and that you have developed a negative image of me. I used this information from my prior experience to come to the conclusion that emailing you my excuse would be a bad idea, and that explaining it to you in person would make my story more believable. When it comes to my decision making, I believe I was using a mix of my logic and visceral pole. I rationalized my decision making, making it logical; however, because for many of the decisions I made throughout this predicament were not fully thought out, the visceral pole comes into play. I’m a person who naturally uses my intuition and my instinct to make decisions, and then use logic to back them up (if possible). Explaining on this using the situation at hand and my unbecoming decision making process that day, first, I had the decision to email you and explain my predicament. At least this would have shown that I was concerned that I had to miss the class. However, confirmation bias applies, I had already missed a class earlier and explained my situation so I was sure that trying to do it again would definitely impact negatively on my image. This confirmation of something that I did not know is a bias. I ought to have emailed you immediately instead of trying to fumble up and hide my head in the sand. This would have saved the situation. Confirmation bias can affect the decisions one make by having a negative attitude to someone or something without taking enough time or effort to get the correct facts on it. In this case having the intuition that you would be cross on my explanation affected the correct decision making process and hence adding to the already bad situation. When it comes to cost/benefit curves, I believed that the cost of not having a computer for the lab session later in the day was greater than the cost of missing your class. This made me to wait for the computer to be attended to at the expense of the class that was going on. This was wrong as there were other options and avenues that I failed to utilize rather than missing the class. I also believed that the cost of benefit of waiting to tell you my excuse in person outweighed the cost of not telling you my excuse immediately through email. In this context, it therefore links to the matters explained earlier. If I were to change my decision making processes that led to writing this paper, I would start by changing my decision of leaving my bedroom door unlocked after having an argument with someone who is known for having a temper. This acted as the initial source of the predicament that befell me. Having prevented that, I would have saved the situation at a preliminary phase where the damage caused would have been avoided. This way, the optimism bias of having a positive outcome would have been demolished, and I wouldn’t have had all of my belongings ruined in the first place. Optimism bias occurs when one has a false perception that things will be right without taking the correct considerations and evaluating the situation to come up with a possible working idea on the consequences that can follow a given decision. For instance, in this case, I would have supposed that after having an argument with a person who is known to have such a hot temper, what would follow is a revenge to settle the scores. However, I was optimistic that the issue had rested and so ended up leaving the room open. Another decision I could have made was to notify you along with the rest of my teachers about this occurrence immediately, so you would have been more understanding of my absence and future complications with attendance. This would have also been beneficial because my lab TA would have been familiar with my dilemma as well, which could have led to him helping me find a solution. Rather than trying to handle things in my own local way, I would have employed the help of others by notifying them and solicit for alternatives that would probably clear my name as well as attend the classes that I missed. This not being the case, I ended up failing in most decision making processes in the day. The second decision I would change is to attend class instead of going to the computer shop. After spending time analysing my series of unfortunate events objectively, I’ve come to realize that I could have used the time I had in class to come to a solution for my chemistry lab dilemma. For an example, I could have asked my lab TA and lab mates if I could share a computer for this lab. Sharing a computer during the lab session would be a better idea rather than missing the two classes I missed that day- a class with you and the poetry one. Due to the lack of time I had from waking up to making my decision, I think that I chose the easiest route that didn’t require too much thinking. Another option could have been to go to class, explain my predicament to you in person, and ask if I could be excused from class. This would have been one of the best decisions since in the event you would have given me the permission to go, I would be glad that you were aware of my absence and I would not be forced to explain issues thereafter. In an event where the permission would not be granted maybe you would have given me alternatives to ensure that I did not miss in any of the classes that I was supposed to attend during the day. The third decision I would have changed was saving where and when the pizza night was on an app that I could not access other than my phone. There are a plethora of different routes I could have went on when approaching this. I could have saved the time and place on an app on icloud, for example. Another example is that I could have emailed myself when and where the event was. I could have even written it down in different notebooks or places that I look at often, so I didn’t have to rely on technology. Having all these options to choose from, and of which I came to think of after the water had already been spilt, I felt that it would be hard to explain my case and therefore refrained from making a good explanation to you. The decision of roaming the campus was also a pretty bad idea. I already knew that I had no clue where I was going. There was honestly no point in wasting so much time, but because I was stressed, that is what I reverted to. Instead of wasting time, I could have found a friend to let me borrow their phone or laptop to contact you during the pizza night. In addition, I shouldn’t have waited to email you. Emailing you would have cleared the air and helped to salvage my tainted image. Regardless of what your reaction would have been, me attendance would have been more beneficial than not at all. Even if I wasn’t able to make it, taking the initiative to contact you instead of passively waiting to make excuses would have produced a better outcome than I thought it would have at the time. In line with this, the biases that had barred my correct decision making process would not have come into place and the issue would have been solved at an early stage. In reflection, the biggest err in my decision making process was avoiding communication. Communicating with others in any situation usually yields better understanding of the situation as a whole. If I communicated with you more effectively in this scenario and with scenarios in the past, I don’t think I would be in the predicament that I’m in: fighting for a good grade and forgiveness. It has been expressed that I have habits that hinder my potential of good performance in the class; and it turns out that I agree. Even though I still feel there were instances where I wasn’t necessarily in the wrong, I have come to realize that just because I may not have been “wrong” in my decision making doesn’t mean that there weren’t better decisions that could have been made. I once again apologize for all of the confusion and chaos that I have caused. Read More