Realist Theories - Assignment Example

Teacher It would not be surprising that China will finally launch a military offensive in its claim in the Western Sea (or South China Sea as China would call it) to finally end the stalemate. Military solution may be convenient for China because the size of its economy will afford it to launch a war having better military hardware and more troops (the most populous country in the world). It could also end the embarrassment that it received from smaller countries like Philippines who brought the case in the international body like UNCLOS to arbitrate the issue.
China wants to resolve the issue with the countries involved and not with the international bodies. If this can be resolved, what could these small countries do if China will lose its military might on its claims on the disputed islands.
Analysis
China may be emboldened to bully its neighboring countries due to its $9240 billion GDP which is the second highest in the world. This GDP also allowed it to have a military superiority against its neighbors including Japan. Even if their total economies and population will be combined, it would still be no match against China. In addition, China is the only nuclear capable state in that region.
China however must take into account that there are two countries (Philippines and Japan) among the claimants that has Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States, the largest economy in the world and strongest military in the world. If China attacks Philippines and Japan, this would make the Mutual Defense Treaty take into effect dragging United States in the war.
In addition, the international community will also be against China because Philippines has brought the issue to the international court for arbitration and waging a war against other claimants will be trespass the case before international tribunal.
Sources:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp
http://www.asean.org/news/asean-secretariat-news/item/asean-gdp-remains-robust-backed-by-services Read More