Syria and United States of America International Relations - Essay Example

Syria and United States of America International Relations Introduction The United States of America is a major advocate in maintaining of world peace. The U.S has been involved in both diplomacy and military force in a move to push for world peace1. Among the countries that have seen the U.S involve military action on their jurisdiction is Iraq. The relationship between the US and Syria has always been a conflicting one Rivalry between the two nations has been catalyzed by Syrian actions that failed to support the U.S against the fight in terrorism2. Presently claims have been made that Syria is involved in the development of Nuclear weapons and there further exists internal war that has led to a humanitarian crisis in the nation. Research questions Due to the present status of Syria this paper reports on the predictive study research on the relationship between U.S and Syria. In this study, the independent variables are military intervention of Syria and diplomatic actions of the US. The dependent variable that depends on these two independent variables is the peace status and political stability of Syria. This paper is a case study that investigates the actions of the presidents of these two nations, President Barrack Obama of the US and Bashar Al-Assad of Syria, are likely to take in response to each other’s actions. It further tries to clarify the question; what is the intention of the U.S with reference to its relation with Syria? However, being a super power the US obvious action will be to try and oversee the solution of the humanitarian crisis in Syria. The US is also expected to be against President Al-Assad since he there is evidence that he used chemical weapons against his citizens. The main challenge in this study is trying to predict the future actions of the two parties and also try to predict the future direction of Syrian internal conflict. In an attempt establish an answer to these questions; we are able to determine the possible answers to minor questions that rise during our investigations. Such questions include; will U.S involve itself in direct military action or will it settle to the use of diplomacy in relation to Syria? What security threats does Syria present to the U.S? And what is the likely conflict resolution action between the two nations? I developed an interest to this research topic since because Syria as a small country has been involved in reckless usage of chemical weapons in the 21st century. No other county has in present time has been involved in such action. Furthermore, the action and attitude of the Syrian president doesn’t seem to be apologetic although he is openly going against the global policies on the protection of human rights. This becomes a place of interest to try and analyze what actions the world powers are likely to take in curbing this situation Literature review U.S-State-Department. U.S Syria Relations. March 20, 2014. http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/3580. htm (accessed may 12, 2014). According to the united stated department, United States of America started advocating for diplomacy with Syria as early as in the 1944 but in 1967 Syria Severed the diplomacy during the time of Arab-Israeli conflict3. The relationship between the two states soured as the U.S portrays Syria as a nation which took the side with the enemies of the U.S. The U.S has been on a global war with a target of suppressing terrorism. Since the early 1979 Syria has been on a US list of nations that support and find terrorism activities in the world4. Other than hosting terrorist’s claims it was claimed that Syria had been manufacturing chemical weapons. BBC. Mid-East. 2 December 2013. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-25189834 (accessed may 13, 2014). According the BBC news in 2013, In 2013 Navi Pillay, a United Nations figure was the first to implicate that president Al-Assad was responsible for the war crimes in Syria that has caused the deaths of thousands5. Her allegations were backed with strong evidence that was attained from the UN intelligence investigators. Basing arguments on these facts the president Al-Assad becomes eligible to prosecute in the international criminal court due to these war crimes against humanities. Knowing that He faces this challenges the actions of Al-Assad have been deviating away from the possibility of him stepping out of power since this may lead to loss of his protection and he may be subjected to prosecution BBC. Mid-East. February 18, 2014. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-23849587 (accessed May 12, 2014) BBC, 2014 reports that US president Barrack Obama has clearly declared his stand that he wants the president of Syria Bashar al-Assad to step down from office due to claims that he had used chemical weapons against the rebels opposing his power6. The US being advocates for democracy has predicted that there is a very low likelihood that the Syrian situation will result to democracy in the long- run. These are among the reasons Barrack Obama wants the Al-Assad to step down from power to allow for a democratic system to take charge BBC. Mid-East. February 18, 2014. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-23849587 (accessed May 12, 2014). BBC further reports that because both nations are member of the U.N Security Council, the U.S has seen diplomacy in Syria. These diplomacy steps have been on a go slow since the two rivals in Syria groups are not willing to dine on the same table. BBC claim that further pressure on the United States to take military action is being catalyzed pushed by the requests of Syrians neighbors7. These countries such as Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon have been receiving refugees from Syria. They are constantly requesting the US to take action in Syria to help contain the humanitarian crisis in Syria. The US has involved itself with diplomacy action in Syria by attempting to advocate for the peaceful existence in Syria. However, the US seems to be fighting a losing battle in the diplomacy fight. Last month, a message from Washington instructed the Syrian Government to remove its diplomats from the US, this came with further instructions that demanded the Syria to close its US Embassy8. This move is evidence that the US is ready the loosen its ties with Syria through reduction of their relations Question 2 - Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) Syrian conflict resolution by the US Introduction Analysis of competing hypothesis is a tool that provides assistance in the actions of predictive intelligence analysis. Predictive intelligence analysis involves the use of scientific analytical methods to analyses situation and further tries to predict future actions in relation to the present data9. The data presented to us in this case is the interaction between the Nation Syria and United States. The actions of Syria under the authority of Bashar al-Assad are not in line with what the president of United States Barack Obama seems to consider as rightful. The conflict between these two nations has been historical and even currently it can be seen not to be in the best condition. The actions of the president of Syria of use of chemical weapons against his citizens and the use the funding of the rebels secretly by the US is the present activities that are revolving around the humanitarian crisis in Syria. So what are the possible actions that the US should be involved in order to curb the Human conflict in Syria? The ACH Procedure Stating possible hypothesis Military inversion on Syria by the by the US will help Curb ongoing humanitarian crisis Diplomacy is the best possible way of achieving peace in Syria Military invasion of Syria by the US will ignite International War between the two countries Evidence present The calls from Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan requesting the US to take military action for the purpose of overthrowing the leadership of Bashar al-Assad regime and thus stop the war10. Threats of military action by the US faced resistance as Al-Assad claimed that the US is always looking for war and trying to control other countries11. Assad recons that Syria is an independent country and should be left to run on its own mechanism Being members of international organizations like the World Bank and the IMF, the US may attempt to advocate for sanctions to Syria in an attempt to get President Al-Assad to stop the internal conflict and be in line with international policies12. To prevent the start-up of an international war, the US should continue to fund the rebels secretly so that they may bring down the leadership of Al-Assad. There is evidence that the rebels are using US manufactures weapons to fight against the Al-Assad’s regime e.g. they use these weapons in striking down Al-Assad’s military aircrafts13. Oppositions by the US population suggest that the citizens don't see the Economic benefit of the US getting involved in another war by sending Troops to Syria since the war in Iraq is still ongoing. The citizens are advocating for us to use diplomacy since military action will stand to endanger innocent lives. Citizens view a military intervention is Syria will not be in line with their countries national interest14 The hypothesis matrix Hypothesis H1 – Military invasion on Syria to solve the Crisis Hypothesis H2 - Diplomacy actions will curb the humanitarian crisis Hypothesis H3 – Military action will spark international war Evidence H1 H2 H3 Call on the US to take military action by Syria’s neighbors + - + Military action in Syria by the US will face military resistance. + - + International Sanctions will get Al-Assad to cooperate with the US - + - US will continue to Secretly fund the rebels against Al-Assad + - - US citizens oppose military action since it will put them at risk - + - Al-Assad access to dangerous weapons increases the likelihood for him to retaliate military action + - + Refined matrix Evidence H1 H2 H3 Military action in Syria by the US will face military resistance. + - + International Sanctions will get Al-Assad to cooperate with the US - + - US citizens oppose military action since it will put them at risk - + - Al-Assad access to dangerous weapons increases the likelihood for him to retaliate military action + - + Tentative conclusions on hypothesis Hypothesis H1 – Military invasion on Syria to solve the Crisis If the US gets involves in military action, in Syria the possibility of a peaceful take over from Al-Assad regime is not possible. Since President Al-Assad has access to chemical weapons and possible nuclear weapons he is likely to engage in a fierce battle, in an attempt to defend his colony. But due to the financial and weapon superiority of the US it is likely that it will win the battle. Hypothesis H2 - Diplomacy actions will curb the humanitarian crisis Diplomacy actions can be successful in solving the humanitarian crisis in Syria if the conflicting parties are able to come to an agreement. However, the stand by the US president that requires Al-Assad to step out of office is highly unlikely to bare any fruit since the president is highly likely to lose his freedom once he is out of power. Al-Assad faces prosecution by the International Criminal Court and his life will be in danger if the rebels take control of the nation as they might seek revenge on him. Hypothesis H3 – Military action will spark international war US inversion on Syria is likely to cause further casualties in the loss of innocent life’s. On the basis of protecting himself and pushing out his invader, Al-Assad is likely to use force through his chemical weapons like the poisonous gas. This is highly likely to spark an international war as nations may seek military support from other nations and this may cause the formation of war alliances. Conclusion The situation in Syria is evidently a serious case that has causes attention internationally. Ending this humanitarian crisis will be a very big milestone to the citizens of Syria. From the analysis of the three hypotheses the action that is likely to cause less further casualties is the second hypothesis which advocates for diplomacy. This is the most likely action for the US since it is the action that goes in line with most of its policies that advocate for the maintenance of world peace. Milestone The failure to get a working peaceful agreement through the use of diplomacy may push the US to the wall to result in the military invasion of Syria. The diplomacy may fail to work due to lack of security guarantee between the rebels and the Al-Assad regime once they decide to end the war. Bibliography Aljazeera. MiddleEast. March 19, 2014. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/03/us-suspends-diplomatic-relations-with-syria-2014318153828980578.html (accessed May 13, 2014). BBC. Mid-East. February 18, 2014. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-23849587 (accessed May 12, 2014). —. Mid-East. December 2, 2013. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-25189834 (accessed may 13, 2014). CNN. politics. September 9, 2013. http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/09/politics/syria-poll-main/ (accessed May 13, 2014). Davis, Kevin, Angelina Fisher, Benedict Kingsbury, and Sally Engle Merry. Governance by Indicators: Global Power Through Classification and Rankings. Oxford: Oxford Univeristy Press, 2012. Gulf-News. Gulf. May 5, 2014. http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/saudi-arabia/syria-turmoil-tests-saudi-us-relations-1.1328356 (accessed May 12, 2914). —. Region-Syria. September 23, 2013. http://gulfnews.com/news/region/syria/syria-president-bashar-al-assad-criticises-west-for-strike-threat-1.1234437 (accessed May 13, 2014). Heuer, Richards J. Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. US Government Publishers, 1999. Manwaring, Max G., and John T. Fishel. Toward Responsibility in the New World Disorder: Challenges and Lessons of Peace Operations. London: F. Class, 1888. U.S-State-Department. U.S Syria Relations. March 20, 2014. http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/3580.htm (accessed may 12, 2014). Read More