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Find an example of one of the four errors people make when thinking about statistics in a current news story (within the last 6 )months - Research Paper Example

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This year was no exception and going through one of the news given by Draghi I find that there are a lot more that is untold about inflation rates leading to misleading information to the general…
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Find an example of one of the four errors people make when thinking about statistics in a current news story (within the last 6 )months
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Download file to see previous pages This is a good example of a story of the mistakes that people make about statistics. Anyone would look at a 2% inflation increase to be a very small number and assume that the economy is stable since 2% out of 100% is just but a small percentage.
Now let’s imagine that the average inflation rate is 2% for the year 2012 and that at the beginning of the year a product costs $100, in the month of February if these figures are correct then the product is supposed to be sold for $102, surprising but what most people don’t realize is that most of the inflation rates are calculated monthly and not annually.
By match, this same price is supposed to have had another increase of 2% average and the new price is to be $104 this is how a common expects the inflation to effect on every product. This means that by the end of the year, the product should have had an increase in its price similar to the geometric progression of 2%. This however is not the case, since inflation is calculated by using the price of common things such as food and their price in the previous year. Then using this price to estimate how much the price would have gone up in the consecutive months such that by the end of the year the final price is used to get the increase, which is expressed in terms of the original price.
The mistake that is made here is by saying that the inflation rates are supposed to increase by 2% without referring to the duration over which this is calculated from or the previous amount or percentage over which this inflation has been based on. This leads to assumptions by the reader about the expected prices, since they do not know how long this percentage is effective and when to start calculating the new prices. They should have specified the duration when these rates are supposed to change.
This is how the information should have been reported. First in the report, they should mention the previous inflation rates. For example if in 2011 the ...Download file to see next pagesRead More
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