The Future Relationship Between the United States and China - Essay Example

The Future Relationship between United s and China Since the visit of Chinese President Hu Jintao to Washington in 2011, there has been significant progress in terms of economic, social, political and diplomatic relationship between China and United States. The leaders of the two countries have assured each other of continued positive relationship for the prosperity of both countries. China and USA have been implementing both strategic and economic exchanges between each other. Military-to-military interactions have also been enhanced to enhance communication between the military forces of the two countries. However, as the relationship between China and United States evolves controversy may increase as much as cooperation between the two countries. The main cause of potential conflict between the two countries could be a contest for supremacy as United States which is the world’s biggest economy attempts to maintain its supremacy status while China rises to become one of the strongest economies of the world. However, cooperation and understanding may be enhanced between the two countries through economic interdependence, democracy and international institutionalization. There are proponents of peaceful relationship and cooperation between China and USA in future. The presence of United States in Asia since the early years of the Second World War has been important in securing peace and prosperity in Asia. China can make provide clear positive intentions in its relationship with the USA. China has to consider the impact of non-peaceful rise to power on its neighbours. Mearsheimer (2010) suggests that China’s military structure of modernization may become a big concern for its neighbours if it is not clearly explained. China needs to reach out to others in order to build confidence concerning its military plans. In this regard, a positive relationship with USA is inevitable because USA plays a significant role in the security and economic issues of Asia. This is often the position of Chinese leaders, although saying is one thing and doing is a different thing. If what the leaders are saying is to be true, then China’s relationship with USA may not be a competitive one that can lead to war. China shows its intentions about its relationship with other nations such as USA in compelling ways, signaling a peaceful future relationship with such countries. It is difficult to determine whether such intentions of China can be the same in future because government and its leaders change over time and the political environment is dynamic (Kissinger 2012). It is therefore difficult to determine whether the country will uphold its positive intentions as it claims, or it may end up with new aggressive intentions in future. Regarding the intentions of a given country, there is always radical uncertainty. USA’s foreign policy is to protect its territory and international friendly countries and partners from terrorism and attacks from unfriendly countries (Kissinger 2012). Its purpose is to maintain peace and security in the world as the world’s superpower. China may also avoid aggressive confrontations and war by developing defensive military forces instead of offensive ones. In this case, China is capable of maintaining the status quo and restraining its capability to use force while altering the balance of power from United States. China is one of the countries with little offensive capability so it does not have the means to act aggressively and cause war (Russel 2014). In fact, Chinese leaders often claim that their military’s main purpose is defensive. This indicates that China will be in a better position cooperating with USA rather than competing and engaging into war, as long as USA will not initiate war with China. If it does, China will obviously retaliate as a defensive mechanism but this is not likely to happen if China does not use aggressive mechanism to alter the balance of power. Liberal optimists also agree that there are prospects of peace, cooperation and understanding between USA and China. There are three mechanisms which liberalists believe to be the pacifying factors in the question of future US-China relations. These are: economic interdependence, democratization and international institutionalization (Friedberg 2005). Liberal optimists believe that the economic interdependence between China and USA will create shared interests and good relations between the two countries in future. The economic exchange between USA and China gained momentum since the market reforms of China in 1970s. The economic interdependence intensified further as China entered the World Trade Organisation in order to allow more foreign goods and capital to enter its market. Economic forces are therefore likely to draw the two countries together. International institutionalization may also lead to more cooperation and peaceful relationship between China and USA because it improves communication and reduces uncertainty about each of the country’s intentions (Friedberg 2005). This reduces the negative effects of international anarchy and enhances higher levels of cooperation. Democracy which is highly advocated by USA is also a necessary for peace between the two countries. As China grows more powerful, its process of democratization also intensifies. Therefore it is predicted that China will be democratic in future. According to Friedberg (2005) regimes that derive their power and legitimacy from the governed are less likely to enter into war with other nations. Therefore, if China becomes democratic like USA in future, the two countries will not likely enter into war with each other. The United States is a country with almost twice as much spending on defence force as all other countries of the world combined (Mearsheimer 2010, p.386). America deploys a lot of military personnel to the Asia-Pacific, and it claims that its intentions are self-defence. However, when a Chinese looks at the situation, he will consider this as offensive. If the recent actions are to be used to predict future behaviour, then it could be logical to think from a Chinese point of view that America is dangerous and war-like. Mearsheimer (2010) suggests that America has been going to war for 14 years of the 21 years since the cold war. Another opposing view could be that America is not likely to go into war with China because it has never shown any intentions to do so. However, America is a super-power nation which has an indispensable nature of policing the globe as often suggested by its leaders. If China takes this path and attempts to force USA out of Asia in future, USA will fight back. Historically, United States has never tolerated peer competition in terms of supremacy and power (Copeland 2000). In this regard, USA is expected to take all measures possible to control China and weaken it so that it does not claim supremacy in Asia. Just the same way USA did not allow the growth of the Soviet Union in the Cold War, so will it not allow the growth of China in future. This indicates that competition between China and USA is inevitable. This rivalry is expected to intensify as Chinese neighbours develop fear over the growth of China and attempt to become allies with the United States. For example, Obama administration announced in 2010 that it was resuming relations with special elite forces in Indonesia. This is because USA wants to have Indonesia as an ally as China becomes more powerful. India and USA have also been developing diplomatic relations in the recent past (Mearsheimer 2010, p.390). Singapore also strides to develop positive relations with USA. In this case, China’s rise to regional power is a threat to its neighbours; hence the neighbours would feel safer collaborating with a powerful nation like United States. This will cause tension, rivalry, conflict and competition between the two powerful nations – probably leading to war. United States can be considered as a global hegemony which no country dares to attack because it has a great deal of offensive and defensive capability. Based on history, it is clear that United States has been fighting against countries that threaten its power (Shambaugh 2000). For example, it went into war with imperial Germany, Nazi Germany, imperial Japan and the Soviet Union which had tried to achieve regional hegemony, supremacy and control their regions and the world. Since it gained independence in 1783, United States has been pursuing regional hegemony (Copeland 2000). After achieving that, it has been doing everything to ensure that no other great power emerges to take its place either from Asia of Europe. To do this USA has been using both strategic and military power. Therefore, it is plausible to argue that USA will not just watch as China rises to threaten its hegemony. Competition and war could be likely as China rises to become more powerful and USA seeks to protect its supremacy. As China grows economically and becomes more powerful, it will likely try to dominate the Asia-Pacific region in order to obtain regional hegemony just as America did in the past to obtain hegemony in the Western hemisphere (Mearsheimer 2010, p.389). China will most likely use its increasing power to ensure that none of its neighbours in the Asian region can threaten it. Once China achieves that regional hegemony, it will then try to push United States out of the Asia-Pacific region. China would prefer to have a weak Japan or Russia as its neighbour so that it can maintain its regional supremacy (Friedberg 2005). In the same way, China is not expected to allow US military forces operating in its own backyard. A country seeking more power like China will not feel safe with US army being deployed on its doorstep (Mearsheimer 2010, p.381). Therefore, as it grows to become more powerful China is likely to compete with America and possibly engage in war to force its army out of the Asian region so that powerful China can feel safe and supreme in the Asia-Pacific region. However, the rise of China in the recent past as a strong economic powerhouse has posed a significant challenge to America’s power in Asia (Mearsheimer 2010, p.381). The risk of USA losing its power in Asia-Pacific to China is due to economic transformations which have caused changes to the distribution strategic power. China’s economic growth and the rise of the middle class have caused a significant change to the global power balance (Mearsheimer 2010, p.381). Traditionally, USA has been enjoying the primary strategic power in Asia due to its economic and military power, but the gap between China and USA in terms of strategic power is declining significantly. This shows that there is a high chance of China claiming the leading power position in Asia; and this could cause a negative relationship with USA due to strategic and political supremacy battles. In conclusion, it is clear that the battle for supremacy between USA and China is likely to increase as China grows to be more powerful. Some people argue that this will lead to cooperation while others content that it will lead to war. Uncertainty about each of the country’s intentions can be overcome through international institutionalization. Growing democracy in the world is also likely to cause peaceful relations between the two countries in future. Although the two countries may face pressure from their neighbours and political forces to go into war, the process of democratization, international institutionalization and economic interdependence between the two countries will reduce the possibility of war engagement. History shows that countries go into war to maintain hegemony, supremacy and power; but the world has changed and the new concepts of democracy, economic interdependence and international institutionalization has changed the world’s view on power and hegemony. Countries nowadays maintain strong military for defensive purposes. USA’s foreign policy is to protect its territory and international friendly countries and partners from terrorism and attacks from unfriendly countries. Its purpose is to maintain peace and security in the world as the world’s superpower. Therefore, the future relationship between United States and China will be marked by cooperation and peace rather than competition and war. Works cited Copeland, Dale C. The Origins of Major War. Ithaca: Cornell University Press. 2000. Print. Friedberg, Aaron L. “The Future of U.S.-China Relations: Is Conflict Inevitable?” International Security, Vol. 30, No. 2, 2005, pp. 7-45. Kissinger, Henry A. “The Future of U.S.-Chinese Relations: Conflict is a choice, not necessity.” Foreign Affairs, March/April 2012 Issue. Mearsheimer, John J. “The Gathering Storm: China’s Challenge to US Power in Asia.” The Chinese Journal of International Politics, Vol. 3, 2010, pp. 381–396. Russel, Daniel R. The Future of U.S.-China Relations. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of State. 2014. Web. Shambaugh, David. “Sino-American Strategic Relations: From Partners to Competitors,” Survival, Vol. 42, No. 1, 2000, p. 110. 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