Recent Changes in Iran Foreign Policy - Assignment Example

RESEARCH PROPOSAL Recent Changes in Irans Foreign Policy: How Khatami and Ahmadinejad Differ on the Middle East Peace Process Introduction/Background The Middle East peace process is one of the hinges of modern international politics. Iran is one of the major players in the process, even if its leaders have been marginalized by the United States and Israel and its rhetoric is often hostile to both. Over the last ten years, Irans foreign policy in the Middle East has shifted from one of relative innocuousness under the moderate president, Mohammed Khatami, to that of potential spoiler under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad The election of Mohammed Khatami to the Iranian presidency, in 1997, was a great surprise. He was a liberal in a country with a very conservative government. For a while it looked like Iran might be emerging from its Islamic revolution and liberal Iranians had great hope. But by 2004, near the end of his second term, Khatami admitted his attempts at reform had failed. His movement had been defeated. Liberals were blocked from running in that year’s parliamentary elections and hard-liners swept back into power. A year later, a second outsider was elected president, but from the opposite side of the political spectrum. A pious populist, Mahmoud Ahmedinejad brought an unusual energy to the conservative cause. He aggressively rolled back Khatami’s reforms and took up a provocative foreign policy, raising tensions with both the United States and Israel. Hosting a conference in Tehran to “review” the historical truth of the Holocaust in December 2006 raised hackles worldwide. These historical, cultural, and political events give rise to a number of important questions that I will research in this dissertation. They are as follows. Research Questions How is Middle East peace process perceived in Iran—by the elite and by the people? What motivated Khatamis regime? What motivates Ahmedenijad regime? Is Ahmedenijad perceived to be the inheritor of Ayatollah Khomeneis mantle by the Iranian people? Are there divisions in opinion between Iranian elite and Iranian people? Research methodology The research for this topic will be done through an examination of both primary and secondary sources (many of which are listed below). Statistical information will be compiled through public and information from the government of Iran and outside human rights groups and international monitors. Information that is relevant to the laws and policies of the government will be gathered and examined. A secondary examination of the relevant literature will provide an overview of the background of the topic and provide new depth and context. Primary research will be conducted via a questionnaire which will be used to come to a better understanding of the answers to the various research questions. As access to the country will be unavailable, the survey will be done through e-mail inquiries and the data collected from the responses. The data will then be examined for its strengths and weaknesses. The questionnaire will be translated into the native language. A method of comparative analysis will be used to distinguish between the Khatami and Ahmedinejad regimes. Documents and data will be used to underline this analysis. Interviews will be conducted where possible with focus groups that will allow for more indepth exploration of the issue than the surveys. These groups will be randomly selected through various social networking sites. Interviews will also be conducted with the members of Foreign Policy think tanks who have experience with Iranian questions. These individuals will be able to provide more responsive and fluid information that research surveys or secondary sources. Because much of the subject of this proposal is contemporaneous—in other words Ahmadinejad is still president and the peace process is currently undergoing a new round—newspapers and magazines will be important sources in order to stay up to date with the latest developments. Sampling Sampling will be conducted through the collection of e-mail addresses that will be obtained through relevant sources and empirical surveys conducted via email. This will be an important tool of data collection. In conducting this research, the e-mail addresses will come from sources that have citizens of Iran in their register and who are willing to share those resources. In addition, e-mail addresses will be obtained through a web page designed to attract citizens from Iran. These web addresses will be linked from various resources that will allow a link to the address and that have access to the people of Iran. An ideal sample size of 200 respondents will be expected in order to conduct the research. The questionnaire (see appendices I) will be an easy pop-up from the web page that can be filled in easily and will be sent directly to the researcher’s e-mail. This type of sampling is know as non-probability sampling. According to Trochim (2006), non-probability sampling describes the unlikely event that will occur when a sample is taken when there is not an equal possibility for all who are concerned to be chosen. Because of the limitations of the access to the people of the nation, only those who happen to come across the link or who are access through other means will have an opportunity to respond (Trochim, 2006). Anyone without internet access will have no opportunity to be sampled. Ethics In order to create an ethically produced study, the sampling will be done through informed consent and maintained in an anonymous atmosphere. To the extent that is possible, the web page will be designed so that no information will be readily available to the researcher or to outside resources who might try to gain access to information that reveals personal identities of the respondents. In addition, the website will feature a disclaimer and consent form that must be digitally agreed to before the survey is completed. Project Planning/Timetable The following schedule will be used in order to complete the study. The collection of e- mail inquiries will be done throughout the course of four weeks. It will take time to finish their answer and return them in by mail. It should be expected that some may be returned after this imposed deadline. This is a potential difficulty which will need to be considered. Indeed, if too few responses are returned, it will be difficult to proceed with the research. Indeed, it may be sensible to include a type of incentive within the inquiries to ensure compliance. Prior to this collection, a week will be needed in order to design the web page and implement the structures that will be needed in order to create the collection. This can be an especially laborious job, so some flexibility must be required. In order to properly continue the secondary research, the six weeks will be used to collect as much relevant data as is necessary to complete the knowledge of the background and the comparative analysis of the regimes, including focus groups assembled via social networking groups and teleconferencing technology. This time will be spent doing online research and utilizing a number of significant libraries to conduct research. Some primary research will also be conducted in the form of in-person interviews. A few days will be needed to complete the statistical evaluations and draw conclusions from this knowledge. One week will be used in order to compile the analysis and write the produced results into a thorough study on the topic. This time will also include revision and spell check. Charts and graphs will be generated during this time to illustrate a number of economic factors and margins. Some flexibility must be built into the timetable in order to allow for slow return of data and information and potential setbacks. The overall time frame for completion is around six weeks. This is a sensible and achievable goal. Bibliography Abrahamian, Ervand. A History of Modern Iran. Cambridge, UK; New York: Cambridge University Press, 2008. Afkhami, Gholam R. The Iranian Revolution: Thanatos on a National Scale.Washington: Middle East Institute, 1985. Akhavi, Shahrough. Religion and Politics in Contemporary Iran: Clergy- State Relations in the Pahlavi Period. Albany: State University of New York Press, 1980. Alexander, Yonah, and Allan Nanes (eds.). The United States and Iran: A Documentary History. Frederick, Maryland: University Publications of America, 1980. Ali Ansari, Confronting Iran: The Failure of American Foreign Policy And the Next Great Crisis in the Middle East, (New York: Perseus Book Group, 2006). Anderson, Irvine. Biblical Interpretation and Middle East Policy: The Promised Land, America, and Israel, 1917-2002. Gainesville: University Press of Florida, 2005.    Broyles, Matthew. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: President of Iran. Rosen Publishing, 2007. Farber, David. Taken Hostage: The Iran Hostage Crisis and America’s First Encounter with Radical Islam. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2005.  Gasiorowski, Mark J., and Malcolm Byrne, eds. Mohammad Mosaddeq and the 1953 Coup in Iran. Syracuse: Syracuse University Press, 2004.  Majd, Hooman. The Ayatollah Begs to Differ: the Paradox of Modern Iran. New York: Doubleday, 2008 Nasr, Vali. "When the Shiites Rise," Foreign Affairs, July/August 2006, http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20060701faessay85405/vali-nasr/when-the-shiites-rise.html Nasr, Vali. The Shia Revival: How Conflicts with Islam Will Shape the Future (New York: W.W. Norton, 2006). Nasr, Vali. Democracy in Iran: History and the Quest for Liberty. Oxford; New York:Oxford University Press, 2006 OSullivan, Meghan L. Shrewd Sanctions: Statecraft and State Sponsors of Terrorism. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2003. Pollack, Ken. The Persian Puzzle: The Conflict Between Iran and America (New York: Random House, 2004). Posen, Barry. "We Can Live With a Nuclear Iran," http://web.mit.edu/cis/pdf/Audit_03_06_Posen.pdf. Read More