Next Weapon of Choice by Terrorist - Research Paper Example

Next Weapon of Choice by Terrorist Abstract Terrorists are making every effort to attack United States and they are trying to use new weapons up on United States. Biological, Chemical and Nuclear weapons can be used against U.S. This study maintains a qualitative approach to identify the most likely weapon of choice that terrorist organizations may use in their attempt to launch an attack within the United States. Through facts and intelligence gathered from scholarly journals and government intelligence reports, this paper will identify these weapons and the most likely places that the material will be obtained from to conduct a large scale attack on US soil. Introduction The recent terrorist attacks across the world have raised many concerns among the world about the next weapon of choice by terrorists. Before 9/11, nobody thought that terrorists will use aircrafts to attack their targets. Nobody anticipated that the World Trade center could have been destroyed using aircrafts. Same way when terrorists attacked Mumbai city in 2008, the method of operation was again quiet new to the world. Suicide bombers are another popular method among the terrorists. In short, it difficult for us to judge how, when, and where terrorists strike and what weapons they may use in future. This concern not only affects the United States, but countries all over the world. Terrorism is growing and expanding. As technology improves so are the weapons of choice that these organizations use to inflict panic within governments and communities. Identifying and defending against these weapons will change our security policies and posture almost daily as the likelihood of an attack with a mass casualty weapon increases. Pakistan is a country which possesses nuclear weapons. Moreover, it is a country where some of the infamous terrorists groups took shelter when most of the other countries closed doors fro them. The political instability and weak governance of Pakistan is a matter of concern to many people because of the fear that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal may one day come in the hands of the terrorists. Pakistan’s soft approach towards terrorists is not a secret to the external world. Biological and chemical weapons of mass destruction are another option for the terrorists in future. This paper is written as a research proposal to investigate more about what will be the weapon of choice terrorists will use in U.S soil in future. This study will identify the most likely choice of weapon that terrorist will use on their next attack. Literature Review: Next weapon of choice by terrorist The article “Weapons of Mass Destruction and the Next Terror Attack”, written by Matusiak and published in The Internet Journal of Rescue and Disaster Medicine, 2009, has mentioned the possibilities of chemical weapons which may use by the terrorists in future. The author mentioned that the idea of a terror organization using a WMD is to strikes fear directly into its intended target population and to prove that the terror organization weapon of mass destruction is in its possession. More than 90% of the most dangerous facilities transport chemicals by rail. Over 80% of these facilities receive shipments of toxic gas chemicals, which if released can cause medical problems if inhaled. Low end chemicals are mostly transported using the rail or sea transport. Even though many safety laws and regulations are there for the manufacturing and distribution of low end chemicals, no such laws are applicable or prevailing while transporting these materials. Rail and sea transport normally may not have much security compared to the air transport. We have many recent incidents in which Somalia sea robbers capturing the control of commercial ships passing near the Somalia territory. In other words, commercial ships don’t have much protection or self defense mechanisms which help the terrorists to rob such ships with ease. In short, it is quiet easy for the terrorists to acquire low end chemicals while transporting such items from one place to other. Toxic industrial chemicals like chlorine and or phosgene are some of the low end chemicals which can be misused by the terrorists because easy accessibility of it. Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) -- chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear agents (CBRN) -- in the possession of hostile states or terrorists represent one of the greatest security challenges facing the United States. An attack utilizing WMD potentially could cause mass casualties, compromise critical infrastructure, adversely affect our economy, and inflict social and psychological damage that could negatively affect the American way of life (Homeland Security Presidential Directive 18: Medical Countermeasures against Weapons of Mass Destruction, 2007). Terrorists groups have access to most of the weapons available in the world. In fact they have more intelligence than some of the governments about the destructive power and usage of some of the controversial weapons. They have proved it many times and 9/11 was one among them. Taliban and Al Qaida have close relationships with the Pakistani administration and the nuclear history of Pakistan strongly pointing towards the chances of terrorists getting the nuclear technology or weapons. In fact the father of Pakistan’s nuclear programs Abdul Qadir Khan is reportedly under house arrest for his alleged selling of nuclear technology to some other countries like North Korea, Iran etc. When India experimented with a nuclear bomb in 1974, Pakistan decided to acquire nuclear arsenal and with the blessings of Bhutto Khan started his efforts. “Khan had stole the centrifuge blueprints from Holland and smuggled them to Pakistan” (Melman 2009). History was repeating when Khan sold the nuclear technology to some of the close allies of Pakistan. If the father of the nuclear bomb in Pakistan can act in such an irresponsible manner, then there is every chance that terrorists may acquire it quiet easily through different channels available within Pakistan. Apart from the nuclear and chemical weapons mentioned above, radiological weapons are another option for the terrorists in future. “Radiological weapons use conventional high explosives to disperse radioactive material over an area. They are useful primarily as an area denial weapon, forcing evacuation and extensive decontamination” (CRS Report for Congress, 2002). According to the homeland security advisory council report, (2007), the future of terrorism will depend, in large part, on the use and accessibility of technology. Increasingly destructive weaponry makes terrorism more lethal; advances in transportation increase the reach of terrorists; and cheaper and more secure means of communication make terrorism harder to detect. As these technologies advance, proliferate and become available to a wider range of actors, more and more potential enemies may use terrorism as a strategy and tactic (Homeland security advisory council report, 2007). The advancements in science and technology are not confined under the control of good people alone. In fact terrorists smell the possibility much quicker than anybody else when a new technology enters the market. For example, the introduction of mobile phone technology is served as a big blessing for the terrorists in controlling their operations. It is reported that the terrorists who attacked Mumbai city in 2008 received instructions and intelligences from their leaders staying in Pakistan through mobile phones when they were executing their missions in Mumbai. The next weapon that is used will indeed cause mass casualties. Terrorist have begun to recruit scholars and receive military training. The days of car bombs will be at a minimum. Terrorist would love to obtain a nuclear weapon or a weapon that will cause mass casualties so that their cause can take center stage and never be forgotten. Purpose of Research/ Research Objectives Nobody knows what weapons terrorist may use in future to attack U.S. Most of the terrorist attacks taking place all over the world are happening quiet unexpectedly and that also using new methodologies. This research is intended to identify possible weapons terrorist may use in future to attack U.S. Hypotheses Terrorists can use biological, chemical or nuclear weapons in future. At least some of the nuclear arsenal in the world is not in the safe hands. It is reported that Pakistan has already sold the nuclear technologies to some other countries and its nuclear weapons can easily come in the hands of terrorists because of political instability. Suicide bombers are also increasing day by day. It is possible that such people can bring chemical and biological weapons to the US soil. The advancements in sconce and technology are better used/misused by terrorists. Biological or chemical weapons can come in the hands of sea robbers especially the Somalia sea robbers which can be misused by terrorists. Research Questions The major research question is what could be the future weapons of choice for terrorist in their attempt to attack U.S. How these weapons can come in the hands of the terrorist? Research Design In order to understand the topic better both qualitative and quantitative research methods will be used in this research. Semi-structured interviews with the home land security personnel and other governmental agencies working in the defense departments will be used to collect the qualitative data whereas recent terrorist attack statistics will be collected from the published sources to collect the quantitative data. Two way communication is possible only in direct interviews with the subjects and it will help me to devise new questions at the time of interview in order to get more insight into the topic. It is difficult to interview a terrorist and moreover, no terrorist will disclose their identity of future plots. We know little about the future plans of the terrorists. But it is possible to analyze the recent trends in terrorist attacks and those data can give more insights in this topic. Moreover, it is better to study more about the major people involved in the terrorist attacks and their motivation for such things. Moreover, their connections and tie ups with some of the infamous governments can give more details about the possible weapons they may use in future. Data Collection and Analysis I have already made agreements to conduct interviews with some of the major people working in the governmental bodies of the defense department. Surveys and questionnaire will also be used to collect the data. Secondary data will be collected from published documents, books, journals, internet and responsible Government ministries. Qualitative methodology is an important tool in capturing what a person working in the home land security department or other governmental agencies like FBI or CIA thinks in terms of future weapon of choice of the terrorists. The feedbacks obtained from the interviews will help me in proposing certain recommendations also for the creation of new policies. Quantitative data is important in understanding the trends and depth of terrorist networked activities. The results past researches can be compared and used with the results I obtained from my research in order to draw final conclusions. Primary data will give qualitative results whereas the secondary data will give both qualitative and quantitative results. The analysis and the interpretations of the data will be done based on the primary and secondary data. Time Scale This research is aimed to complete within 45 days. I have planned to start the data collection from July 1st onwards. The first 15 days will be utilized for collecting primary data. I have planned to visit homeland security and FBI offices located at different parts of the country to collect the primary data directly from the officials. Online surveys will also be conducted during this period. The next 20 days will be used to collect secondary data from the published articles, books, journals and internet. The 10 days will be used for the data analysis and also for writing the final paper. Indication of results and conclusions/ Summary of Findings The articles and reports that may use for research will provide vast amounts of statistical information on the latest trends in terrorist attacks. They provided information to what the fallout of such weapons would consist of. The government report from Congress provided recommendations that should be taken to mitigate the risk of such attacks. After analyzing the articles my preliminary perception is that terrorists are preparing for severe attacks on US soil to inflict mass casualties for their cause. These networks are making every attempt to put together a Weapon of Mass Destruction that will inflict a horrific amount of casualties by way of nuclear, chemical, biological, or radioactive. This weapon will be created by using common themes to disguise it. It will not come in the form of a missile or a bomb dropped from a plane as if it came from a recognized armed uniform enemy. References 1. CRS Report for Congress, (2002), Weapons of Mass Destruction: The Terrorist Threat, Retrieved on 21June 2010 from http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/9184.pdf 2. Homeland Security Presidential Directive 18: Medical Countermeasures against Weapons of Mass Destruction (2007), Retrieved on 21June 2010 from http://www.dhs.gov/xabout/laws/gc_1219175362551.shtm 3. Homeland security advisory council report, (2007), Retrieved on 21June 2010 from http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/hsac-future-terrorism-010107.pdf 4. Matusiak M, (2009) Weapons of Mass Destruction and the Next Terror Attack, The Internet Journal of Rescue and Disaster Medicine. 2009 Volume 8 Number 2, Retrieved on 21June 2010 from http://www.ispub.com/journal/the_internet_journal_of_rescue_and_disaster_medicine/volume_8_number_2_14/article/weapons-of-mass-destruction-and-the-next-terror-attack.html 5. Melman Yossi (2009), Father of Pakistan's nuclear bomb tells just how easy it is, Retrieved on 21June 2010 from http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/features/father-of-pakistan-s-nuclear-bomb-tells-just-how-easy-it-is-1.7724 Proposed paper outline Introduction a. Terrorist continues to attack nations with various mass casualty producing weapons. b. This study will identify the most likely choice of weapon that terrorist will use on their next attack. c. What will be the weapon of choice terrorist will attempt to use on US soil? Procedure a. Terrorist are attempting to obtain some sort of nuclear weapon. b. Qualitative research c. I will examine all data collected d. Review Journals and Government Reports e. Will attempt to validate findings by comparing to past trends f. No anticipated ethical issues 1. References Read More