Potential Republican Candidate - Term Paper Example

As of late April 2009, the Vegas betting lines have +350 odds on Alaska governor Sarah Palin, +400 odds on former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney,and +500 odds on former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee to the Republican nominee for the 2012 Presidential Race. These odds reflect the objective estimates of bookies everywhere taking bets on who will run against the incumbent in the next general election. Of course, interesting as such a bet would be, nothing in politics is ever predictable or even set in stone. Popular notions quickly become “misconceived” ones and steadfast campaign promises are tossed out like yesterday’s paper. However, it does seem as though these odds have nailed the situation exactly. As it stands now, if the nomination were to occur tomorrow for a presidential race, it seems as though Governor Sarah Palin has the edge. Her performance as a champion of low taxes and conservative values makes her the perfect face for the future of a downtrodden and demoralized political party, smashed by the forward-looking Democrats in the 2008 election cycle. What the Republican Party needs is a revitalization and a return to its “principles” that were sacrificed or given up during the neoconservative reign of George W. Bush from 2000 to 2008. Republicans, overall, are interested in reviving the past not only in how the country is run but also in how their Party is run. While the nomination of John McCain as the Party’s candidate in the 2008 election put them further away from this goal, it is apparent that the nomination of Sarah Palin would put them closer to that goal, and ensure a future for the Republican Party in federal politics. Arguably, what Barack Obama did for the Democratic base in the 2008 election, Sarah Palin did for conservatives. Greg Mueller, a senior aide in the presidential campaigns of Steve Forbs and Pat Buchanan, put it this way: “Sarah Palin as the economic populist and traditional American values candidates will be very appealing by the time we get to 2012”; according to Mueller, she gave conservatives “hope” and “something to believe in” (Simon). On all accounts of where the Republican Party is in 2008, this is exactly what is needed for their group to find a common ally. The election of John McCain in 2008 as the Republican nominee for president, according to most pundits, alienated a large portion of conservative voters, who failed to identify with the candidate’s moderate, or even leftist, positions on many civil issues (Nasaw). McCain’s support for bailing out troubled banks and industries (favored by most Republican politicians in fact), irked some voters into knowingly abstaining. With the nomination of Sarah Palin in 2012, such alienation would be rare, given how many conservatives and right-wingers gave their unconditional support to her. The reasoning behind this overwhelming support may be in how these conservatives and right-wingers identified with Palin both on a personal and professional level (Fincher). On one hand, they witnessed as she accepted a mentally disabled infant into the family and battled criticism for her daughter’s unwed pregnancy. Moreover, they attended her rallies in which she condemned both Barack Obama and the neo-conservatism of George W. Bush. They knew that she had what it took to “change Washington” and bring about another term of Ronald Reagan politics. The only problem with Palin, to conservatives during the general election, was that she would serve as Vice President to John McCain, who garnered little support from the Far Right and evangelicals. In 2012, the idea is that Sarah Palin should be President—the highest office in the government—in order to realize the kind of “change” and “hope” that her potential voters lobby for. Like Barack Obama, Sarah Palin possessed that special quality when speaking to crowded audiences and connecting with each one on a personal level. Palin, like Obama, uses her personality and personal life to make political points in ways that other candidates, such as McCain, Huckabee, and Romney, could not. This special quality is necessary for a presidential candidate, and no other potential Republican candidates possess such a quality. The other primary contenders for the nomination, as previously mentioned, are former governor Mitt Romney and former governor Mike Huckabee, both of whom failed to receive the nomination after losing to Senator John McCain in the primary season. Although Romney appealed to many conservatives by being a businessperson and an advocate for capitalism, voters found themselves unable to relate to him on a personal level. Huckabee was the opposite: although conservative voters could identify with the former preacher, his views leaned perhaps too far to the right. He could not appeal to the entire Republican base to secure the nomination. He lost in an election for “change” because of the “pragmatism” (or progressivism) of John McCain. Sarah Palin, in contrast, offers the conservative movement a new face and therefore makes the ideal candidate to run for the Republicans in 2012. The support she single-handedly garnered for the Republican ticket can carry over into a new election (Block). In sum, it seems at least to me the bookies in Vegas have this one right. Sarah Palin ought to be, and most likely will be, the Republican nominee for President in 2012 to attempt to unseat incumbent Barack Obama. The reason for this is that what Obama did for liberals Palin can do for conservatives: promising a change in government and a hope for a reversion back to the principles of the Republican Party. She can appeal to voters on both a personal and a professional level, which both Huckabee and Romney (her strongest competitors) failed to do during the primary season. Looking at Palin’s performance during the campaign, and the effect she had on crowds of supporters, one may see the temptation for the Republican National Committee to throw their support behind the Governor. If Palin is indeed nominated, it seems as if she can have the kind of galvanizing effect that John McCain certainly did not have on the right wing, and she can rally support behind herself and like-minded members of Congress. Should this happen, the Republicans will have a fighting chance of gaining back control. Bibliography Block, Melissa. Social Conservatives Support For Palin Unwavering. 2 September 2008. 28 April 2009 . Fincher, Leta Hong. Republican Vice Presidential Candidate Sarah Palin Lures White Women Voters. 19 September 2008. 27 April 2009 . Nasaw, Daniel. McCain alienates right with Obama apology. 27 February 2008. 28 April 2009 . Simon, Roger. Is Sarah Palin preparing for 2012? 28 October 2008. 28 April 2009 . Read More