Causes of Obama's victory - Essay Example

INTRODUCTION The election of Barack Obama as the 44th president of the United s was a historic event in the life of the American republic. The fact that an African American was elected president and on a platform of “change” was heralded as the beginning of a new era in the politics of the nation. Obama’s repeated assertion that “Change will come to Washington” echoed with the expectations of the electorate. This has been interpreted by many as an indication of intent to reform the governmental structure and the body polity. The other notable feature of the election has been the state of the economy and the ongoing credit crisis. This was said to have figured prominently in the election and was one of the main issues that propelled Obama towards victory. In the perception of the electorate, electing John McCain was tantamount to rewarding the very people who got the country into the financial mess. The other issues that mattered were the war in Iraq and Afghanistan. Thus, Obama is widely seen as a transformational figure who would provide relief and succor to a nation divided by partisan politics, besieged by economic problems and insecure in the aftermath of the 911 attacks and the subsequent war on terror. CAUSES OF OBAMA’S VICTORY The election of Barack Obama came as part of a historic mandate that saw record turnout by the electorate and a campaign team that relied extensively on the internet to propagate their message as well as secure funding is a sign of our times. Given the track record of the 2000 election that saw the election being decided in the Supreme court led some commentators to wonder,” whose election is this anyway” (Wayne, 2007). Drawing from the experiences of Al Gore and John Kerry in the previous elections, the Obama team made sure that they did not repeat the mistakes of the democratic predecessors. A closer look at the poll data shows some clear reasons why Obama won. First, he came at the right time and was consistent in his theme of “change”. For instance, President Bush’s approval ratings were at 27% because of the financial meltdown and thus change echoed with voter sentiment. Secondly, Obama won “middle America” more than John Kerry did. The Obama victory was a balance of winning more white voters than John Kerry and doing substantially better with African Americans and Hispanics. Obama’s victory is not as huge as it seems not as narrow as claimed by the right wing commentators. An analysis of the data shows that his victory has come at the “centre” and despite accusations of “socialism” and “Joe the Plumber” he managed to carry a lot of white working class men and women with him. The fact is that the Obama victory was pervasive and cut across almost all demographic subgroups. However, there are some prominent groups that warrant examination. It is also worth noting that Obama did something unique in this election by winning men. Barack Obama is widely seen as a “transformational” figure that would usher in a new era. He is perceived by many Democrats as the one who is going to “heal the rift” within the party. In this context, Barack Obama has successfully captured the imagination of the voters. The main advantage that Barack Obama has is that he is seen as someone who can bring in change after two successive terms of the Bush administration that is hugely unpopular for its war on Iraq, sinking economy and tax cuts for the rich. An administration whose approval ratings are in the low twenties, this election is seen by voters as bringing in change that can restore the economy and repair the damage caused to American influence by the disastrous war on Iraq. EFFECT ON THE US AND FUTURE COURSE OF ACTION Though it is hazardous to predict the future, there can nonetheless be a set of variables that can be used as a guide when one goes from election mode to governance mode. In a cover story by Time Magazine, the author points out “The most labor-intensive phase is about to begin, as teams of Obama aides descend on more than 100 federal departments and agencies to begin poring over their operations. Meanwhile, the new Administration is looking for more than 300 Cabinet secretaries, deputies and assistant secretaries, plus upwards of 2,500 political appointees who do not require Senate confirmation”. Thus, the central question before Obama and his team is where to look for talent and what is the kind of positions that they want to fill right away. Already his choice of Rahm Emmanuel has been cited as both a strong move as well as criticized by the right. The closest comparison that Obama draws is with FDR and like him, Obama may well have to present a “New Deal” but with a difference to Americans. In the perception of many, Obama has the ability to reach out to the American public much in the way that FDR had done in the aftermath of the Great Depression. The parallels are striking as the US faces the worst recession since the 1930’s and what Obama can start off is by addressing the “low hanging fruit” and concentrating on delivering financial assistance and “practical help to individuals, families and communities” (Kuttner, 2008). Thus, as the main point of this paper shows, it is better to start small and once he gets his bearings right, go on to tackle systemic issues. A notable feature of Obama’s victory speech was his admission that “it may take more than one term” for him to address some of the issues at stake and it is my opinion that his feet are firmly on the ground as far as his approach is concerned. The other point would be to reach out “across the political divide” and include a few republicans in his cabinet or other posts to take a centrist approach. It is widely believed that Robert Gates has done a good job as defense secretary. Thus, retaining him to provide some continuity and stability would be a good move on part of the Obama administration. And given the fact that Obama has stated that he wants an exit strategy from Iraq in a time frame of 16 months, it would be prudent to continue with Gates at defense. This would also send in the correct signals to the international community as to the intentions of the Obama team as not being empire seekers like the Bush administration but a more nuanced approach to foreign policy and the role of the US in the world. The latest news from the Obama transition team is that Hillary Clinton is being sounded for a possible post as Secretary of State. Though this seems welcome at first glance, the move has to be cautious and well thought out as there might be a question of stature given that both of them were rivals for the Democratic ticket. The other downside that the Obama team must avoid is looking too much like the Clinton administration. While there is no doubt about Clinton being a great president, the circumstances are vastly different now with the wars and the economy dragging down the economy and the country. CONCLUSION Finally, the most important point about Obama is that he comes across as an inspirational figure. As outlined in the above sections, Obama portrays an “agent of change” image whereas McCain was seen as “more of the same”. It is this fundamental difference that Obama has skillfully used to his advantage. The election of Barack Obama as the 44th president of the US is a beginning in the direction of change. Given the state of the economy and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Obama has the task of rebuilding the American nation cut out for him. As discussed above, there are lots of expectations about his role in shaping the American polity. It remains to be seen how far he would succeed. It is the fervent hope of this writer that he would succeed in his endeavor. SOURCES Friedman, George. 2008. Obama’s challenge. Results from the Stratfor website. Retrieved from: http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20081105_obama_s_challenge Kuttner, Robert. 2008. “Can Obama be FDR?” Obama’s Challenge. New York: Chelsea Green Publishing Lombardo, Steven. 2008. Why Obama Won. Results from Pollster.com. Retrieved from: http://www.pollster.com/blogs/why_obama_won.php Wayne, Stephen. 2007. Is This Any Way to Run a Democratic Election? Georgetown: CQ Press. Read More