Population Growth and Its Effect on Global Warming - Research Paper Example

Population Growth and the Environment: A Prospectus on How Demographic Change Impacts the Globe One of the most heated environmental debates which have existed for the past 15-20 years within the scientific and political community is with relation to the existence of global warming. The topic itself is hotly contested between both left and right of the political spectrum; between progressives and conservatives and between developing and developed nations. Each of these shareholders has something to gain or to lose based upon their own interpretation and as such this topic has been a particularly messy one to understand and to define. Accordingly, this brief essay will attempt to briefly analyze this monolithic problem in terms of the exponential growth in human population that has been evidenced over the past 200 years. Furthermore, a determination will be sought to be made with regards to the question of whether human action or natural causes best explain the climate fluctuations that planet earth has recently been chronicling. Lastly, as a function of the previous points of discussion and analysis, the author will attempt to proscribe a reasonable and performable set of steps and solutions which both the scientific community and the world at large could and should seek to employ as a function of ameliorating the stress on planet earth and the issues at hand. Furthermore, as a means of bringing such an understanding about, the analysis will also rely upon relevant scientific publications on the topic as well as verifiable statistics and charts concerning overall levels of climate change and corresponding increases in CO2 emissions by humans over the past several decades. However, noting the global climate change is an issue is not, in and of itself sufficient. As such, the analysis will also consider the rapidly increasing demand that fossil fuels have been projected to assume over the next several decades and posit a potential alternative to further environmental degredation at the hands of seemingly ever expanding human populations. Firstly, there is the point of view that strongly believes that the swings in climate change are the direct result of the presence of high amounts of human CO2 in the atmosphere that is causing a greenhouse effect on the planet and thereby causing world temperatures to rise. Prima fascia of this argument is the belief that human CO2 emissions are responsible for the changes to the global climate. It follows therefore that those which ascribe to this point of view are the most vehement that drastic and immediate changes to the manner in which human beings interact with planet earth and seek to use her resources in order to achieve a high standard of living be re-assessed as a function of whether such practices are best for the future health and longevity of the planet (Gan et al 6555). However, the biggest drawback to this particular line of reasoning is the fact that the overall extent to which human CO2 factors into the percentage of total CO2 generated by planet earth on a yearly basis is so miniscule as to be laughable. Indeed, numerous studies have convincingly noted that human CO2 emissions only account for around 4% of total earth CO2 release in any given calendar year. Although this by no means relieves humans of their responsibility towards the planet, it does however help put into perspective the precise scope of this problem and the means by which it should be sought to be rectified. In terms of human population/overpopulation, this viewpoint is perhaps the most credible. Whereas it is a known fact that industrialization necessarily creates massive levels of CO2, the level of human development and economic interdependency that exists within the modern world is such as has never before been noted. Accordingly, the expanding human populations around the globe demand more things; requiring more production, more resources, and more CO2 to be released into earth’s atmosphere each and every year. The problem with this point of view is of course the fact that the main causal factors for global climate change with respect to the recent changes in temperature patterns have not been considered. For instance, there is a preponderance of evidence that the size and heat the sun generates is of course non-uniform and varies depending on the level of solar flares and solar storm activity (Powledge 9). As such, scientists have noted that beyond CO2 concentrations, the suns actual energy output has increased slightly over the exact same period in which the global climate change has been most powerfully noted (Ferrara 46). Of course the purpose of this brief essay is not to convince the reader regarding what the true culprit of global climate change truly is; rather, it is merely meant to acquaint the reader with the various causal mechanisms that likely influence the way in which the planet’s climate is regulated and changes as both a function of solar activity, human actions, and overall concentration of a number of other factors. Yet another issue with the global warming as a result of CO2 emission side of the argument is the fact that it is scientifically proven that global temperature is determined not only by CO2 levels, or the sun but also by the world’s oceans. Due to the fact that the oceans of the world cover more than 70% of the surface of the earth, they have a profound effect on regulating the temperature of our global system. Moreover, scientists have recently proven that the world’s oceans dictate the global temperature levels more so than was previously recognized and at a rate that no one thought was possible. For instance, due to the fact that the oceans of the world are so deep and so expansive, it takes decades for global climate changes spurred on by other factors to actually be felt (Waters 12). In this way, it is the earth’s way of naturally providing a reactionary thermostat that does not allow minor variations to be immediately and painfully felt by the biosphere. Taken at face value, such an understanding would necessarily mean that the peaks in global temperature that have been felt within the past several decades would have been the result of much earlier temperature peaks and are only exhibiting themselves via the worlds warming oceans at a much later date. Understanding this is important due to the fact that any and all models of understanding with respect to global climate change must factor into account the effect that the oceans have on global climate patterns and overall temperature shifts (Stone 14). Similarly, the other side of the argument believes that humans have little if anything to do with global warming and as such the situation is little more than a large amount of prefabricated intellectual nonsense that is better left ignored. The primary issue with this point of view is the fact that it does not seek to find a solution to the recent swings and changes in global climate change and merely dismisses the argument of the other side on a categorical basis. The old dictum goes that it is better to have a flawed explanation than no explanation at all. In many ways this can be said for those that proffer this particular point of view (Rahmstorf 25). Rather than being able to promote a convincing and logical reason for the global climate change that has been evidenced in the recent past, this side merely contents itself with lampooning the abject silliness of the other side without seeking to offer a legitimate solution to something that they see as little concern. The main pitfall of the opposing side is that they are prone to disregard the fact that humans can have any affect whatsoever on the climate patterns of planet earth. In this way, a type of defeatism and lack of concern is born that not only affects the debate on global warming but the stewardship of the planet as a whole. Yet another issue that begins to weaken the argument of those that believe that human CO2 emissions is the fact that the proponents of such a view often ignore the meager 4% figure as being so infinitesimally small that it could not have an effect on the global climate (Mills 68). However, it would behoove these people to note that it is likely that what is actually being affected on the global climate is the result of the compound effect of multiple factors; of which the human CO2 emissions are merely one aggravating culprit. Naturally, one would be remiss in discussing and analyzing non-renewable resources and the means by which humans can impact upon the environment without touching briefly upon the means by which the current world model is so dependent upon fossil fuels as a means of continuing to industrialize and provide power for continued technical revolution within the world’s more developed nations. Whereas there are many key differentials which can be discussed with regards to the ways in which the first world nations in the Third World nations seek to develop themselves further, it is an unmistakable truth that one of the comparisons that clearly exists is that both of their economies are primarily reliant upon the production and/or use of fossil fuels as a means of providing transportation for their citizens, generating power, or deriving a degree of wealth based upon the sale of such resources. In fact, the impacts of fossil fuel generation upon each and every nation in the current system is perhaps more profound of any non-renewable resources that will herein be discussed. For purposes of clarity and simplicity, fossil fuels will be regarded as cold, oil, and natural gas. Although there are of course many different varieties of these and the nomenclature which has been listed is neither complete nor exhaustive, this simplistic rubric and framework will be utilized as a means of providing the reader with a manageable understanding and approached through which this particular issue can be acknowledged. It does not take an environmental expert to realize the dangers and harm that fossil fuel extraction impact upon the global system. Disasters such as the Exxon Valdez, Deepwater Horizon, and a litany of others underscore the negative environmental impacts that human extraction of fossil fuel resources can have. Due to the ever-increasing level of demand these resources are experiencing around the globe, as a further and further number of individuals and nations demand such resources for development, the exploitation of current resources of gas, oil, and coal, has increased exponentially over the past several decades. Due to this exponential increase, many scholars have put forward the understanding that it will be fossil fuels and hydrocarbons which will be the first non-renewable resource to be fully exhausted; possibly even within the next 100 years. Again, due to the fact that hydrocarbons and fossil fuels have taken millennia to form, their depletion will necessarily demand a complete and total shift in the way in which humanity seeks to further develop itself and provide locomotion and energy for its economies. Moreover, figure 1.1 below illustrates the increasing dependence upon oil alone that the world is likely to experience within the next several decades. Figure 1.1 Sadly, the increase in oil consumption alone is not the only fossil fuel that will likely experience something of exponential growth over the next several years. Coal as well as natural gas are both fossil fuels that are relied upon by various regions of the developed and the developing world both as a means of providing heat and/or as a means of generating electricity. Depending upon the cost of other methods, coal and/or natural gas can be substituted during times in which alternative fuels are too expensive. Within such a way, it is difficult to envision a situation in which either coal or natural gas could be phased out within the very near future; short of a technological breakthrough that made them useless and overpriced. Figure 2.2 illustrates the rising expectation for coal demand within the next few years. Figure 2.1 With regards to an amelioration of the above problem by means of technical or scientific discovery/development, it is the belief of this author that hydrogen as a fuel offers the most reasonable and likely solution to the clearly non-renewable nature of the world’s hydrocarbon-based economies (Matsumoto, 2013). True, hydrogen as a fuel continues to pose many unique challenges. Firstly, science struggled to make the production of hydrogen something of an energy positive process. What is meant by this is that for years, hydrogen could be created; however, the process that was used in order to affect this necessarily took more energy than the produced hydrogen could itself create. However, this problem has recently been solved as hydrogen can readily be produced in something of an energy positive process. Yet, hydrogen as a fuel and as a potential means of removing the fossil fuel/hydrocarbon addiction of the world’s economies still has several hurdles until it can be utilized fully as a reasonable replacement to existing energy sources. One of the most troublesome realities that is currently exhibited is with regards to the means by which hydrogen fuel is stored. As one of the most combustible gases and liquids known to man, hydrogen poses a definitive health and safety risk to any individual or society that intends to integrate with it as a fuel. This is primarily due to the fact that although hydrogen can be relatively cheaply produced and even utilized within internal combustion engines or other applications that require energy, hydrogen gas itself must either be pressurized and stored within a cylinder or it must be stored as a solid and readily converted into a gas in order to power the particular device in question. Naturally, changes in phase are not energy neutral and any such phase change with necessary result in a large loss of efficiency. Moreover, phase changes take time and with the demand of energy output such as it is, it is not reasonable for hydrogen fuel to need to change phases in order to be utilized within an engine. One of the means by which technology has sought to ameliorate this particular drawback is with respect to the way in which current scholarship and research is focusing upon the means by which hydrogen gas can be bonded directly to plates of metal and then removed by a quick and low energy process of electrolysis. Naturally, this approach is complex and would most likely require a further depth of understanding prior to being utilized within society. Whereas the technological solutions that have thus far been discussed with regards to non-renewable resources may very well take decades in order to be realized, the approach of hydrogen as a fuel by which the non-renewable resource of fossil fuels can eventually be phased out is both quite possible and likely even within the lifetime of this particular author. However, a unique set of difficulties stands between hydrogen being adopted as a fuel to replace fossil fuels. Whereas the other factors that it been discussed within this analysis up until this point are with regards to the way in which societal accepts it, or mega-corporation’s engage in the extraction of finite resources, this particular technical response will be one that will require direct integration with the consumer markets. What is meant by this is the fact that in order for such a technological revolution to take place, the hearts and minds of consumers must be open to change. Due to the abysmal response that hybrid and hybrid electric vehicles have received over the past several years, it cannot be definitively noted that such a degree of societal integration within new norm and dynamic is not something occurs easily. Rather, individuals are hesitant to change by very definition. This of course represents a unique impediment to the means by which an adoption of an alternative method of locomotion and/or fuel can be integrated within the current societal environment. As such, from the information that has been presented, it is readily seen that the main ways in which the two sides disagree is the area of overlap which could most be exploited to find a middle path between these two. For instance, it is the recommendation of this author that although human CO2 emissions are obviously but a small component of the total CO2 release that go into the earth’s atmosphere in any given year, it is still nonetheless a release that has hitherto not been something that the earth’s environment has had to accustom itself with absorbing. As such, to disregard the compound effect that such a low statistical percentage could affect compounded over multiple years would also be foolish. Furthermore, in order to better understand the issue, it is necessary for those that seek to push the global warming agenda to take a thoughtful step back and consider the multitude of factors that can also contribute to global climate change. In this way, a type of middle path between the two points of view can be made as a means of seeking to effect a realistic and actionable level of change to the current system. Regardless of the final determination, it must be assumed that the current rate of resource consumption that is being exhibited on earth by the human population is unsustainable; in this way, whether or not this resource consumption leads to global warming or not is somewhat irrelevant. Works Cited Ferrara, Peter. "Why The World Is Getting Warmer, Even Though It Is Getting Colder." American Spectator 42.2 (2009): 46-48. Academic Search Complete. Web. 24 Nov. 2012. Gan, Bolan, and Lixin Wu. "Modulation Of Atmospheric Response To North Pacific SST Anomalies Under Global Warming: A Statistical Assessment." Journal Of Climate 25.19 (2012): 6554-6566. Academic Search Complete. Web. 24 Nov. 2012. Mills, Evan. "Weighing The Risks Of Climate Change Mitigation Strategies." Bulletin Of The Atomic Scientists 68.6 (2012): 67-78. Academic Search Complete. Web. 24 Nov. 2012. POWLEDGE, FRED. "Scientists, Policymakers, And A Climate Of Uncertainty." Bioscience 62.1 (2012): 8-13. Academic Search Complete. Web. 24 Nov. 2012. Rahmstorf, Stefan. "Hot Enough For You?." New Scientist 215.2880 (2012): 24-25. Academic Search Complete. Web. 24 Nov. 2012. Stone, P.H. "Forecast Cloudy: The Limits Of Global Warming Models." Technology Review (00401692) 95.2 (1992): 32. Business Source Premier. Web. 24 Nov. 2012. Waters, Tom. "Roof Of The World. (Cover Story)." Earth 2.4 (1993): 26. Academic Search Complete. Web. 24 Nov. 2012. Read More