Year 2012: Fact or Fiction - Research Paper Example

? Your Fact or Fiction? The phenomenon has long been disputed between various believerswho believe in the accuracy of the ancient Mayans and those who trust that all the theories which are meant to support the predictions are scientifically impossible. The Mayan prophecy states that many devastating events will occur in December 2012 at a certain time that will lead to the destruction of the earth. On one hand, the astronomical knowledge of this ancient meso-american civilization is known to be far ahead of their times. “While experts may not agree on precisely why such a powerful civilization seems to have disappeared, they can’t argue over the marvel of what it left behind” (Braden 3). However, scientific theories suggest that there is no reason why the predictions should be anywhere near practicality. In presenting the argument that the 2012 phenomenon is impractical, I have taken the support of various scientific theories which suggest that there is no imminent threat looming in the near future. Be it the much debated appearance of planet Nibiru or the threat of the solar flares, science has answers stemming from the inexhaustible research that various scientists from all over the world have been conducting over the ages. Research has shown that all the theories which suggest the destruction of earth are themselves flawed at one point or the other and the same proves to be the decisive factor for a scientific mind to look at the predictions as impractical. Name 2 THE PREDICTION The so-called 2012 predictions suggest that in the December of 2012, some devastating events will bring fatal destruction on the earth. Interestingly, there are multiple events that are considered to bring about the inception of the cataclysmic events. However, one of the main and most talked about reason is the end of the Baktun cycle in the long count system of the Mayan calendar. This year marks the end of a baktun which is equivalent to 144,000 days according to the long count calendar of the Mayans. On the 22nd of December, 2012, the 13th baktun would come to an end. “Their calendar predicted that the present Age of the Jaguar will come to its end in 2012” (Gilbert 16). Some believe that there are actual astronomical evidences that reinforce the long count system. The planet hit theory is one of the most debated points when it comes to the 2012 predictions. A comet planet Nibiru, which is believed to travel through the asteroid belt between Jupiter and Mars, will hit the earth. The existence of the planet is in itself a matter of debate among the ardent believers and scientists. Some say that the planet doesn’t even exist while many still counter the scholars by stating that the fact of the planet’s existence has deliberately been shadowed from public knowledge. There are other versions which suggest a reversal in the rotation of the earth which could pull the plug and bring an end to the life. The threat of a nuclear war, a financial meltdown and various other theories are also widely considered as debatable points when the 2012 predictions are taken into account. While some believe that the solar storms may also be an important factor, many other debated arguments state storms, earthquakes, tsunamis, and other disasters to be the causal effect for the predicted doomsday. However, no solid evidence has been identified which support the theory of the 2012 phenomenon. Name 3 THEORIES AND THEIR CONTRADICTIONS Planet Nibiru. Nibiru is believed to be a large planetary object—according to doomsday believers-- that is to collide with earth on the alleged doomsday. The planet revolves round the sun and is supposed to pass by earth every 3600 years. Zecharia Sitchin, in his book called the “The 12th planet” states that Nibiru had collided with another planet that had led to the formation of the earth, the asteroid belt between Jupiter and Mars, and comets. And it is this Nibiru which is believed to be the Planet X that scientists have believed to exist. But then, science has its own explanations about the subject. NASA scientists claim that all the mayhem created by the so-called Nibiru and its supposed collision is nothing more than an internet hoax. In the event that such a large planet would have passed through the orbits every 3600 years, then there would have been a massive level of disturbance in the inner planets which should have became evident in the decades of scientific research that has been carried out. Furthermore, solid evidence has strongly reinforced the contradictions against the populist belief. In 1983, an all sky survey was conducted by the Infrared Astronomy Satellite (IRAS). Any presence of a large planetary object would definitely have been detected by the satellite. No such presence was known then, or for that matter, in any of the subsequent surveys. “If it was true about the planet Nibiru returning after an orbit of 3,600 years Earth time, that means the inhabitants had only aged one year their time”(Weeks 177), comments Sandy about the inhabitants of the mythical planet Nibiru who are believed to possess supernatural powers. If Nibiru had ever existed, then the knowledge of its existence would not have been withheld, at least by the ever competing rival powers of the world possessing the best of astronomical survey techniques. Name 4 It is not untrue that asteroids and other planetary objects have not been identified anyway near the earth. One of the major holders of a large chunk of these is the Kuiper belt which occupies a pretty large space around the sun. All kinds of asteroids and rocky materials mark their presence here. The very idea or the theory of the existence of another planetary object looming around the sun is attributed to some of the strange characteristics of Kuiper belt. This is because at a certain point, the Kuiper belt suddenly comes to an end. Scientists say that this might be because of the presence of some planetary body that weighs somewhere between Earth and Mars. Japanese scientists later came up with the discovery of a body that is almost less than half the mass of earth. This discovery was considered apt to explain the strange feature of the Kuiper belt. It is interesting to note that the search for a possible ‘Planet X’ commenced after the discovery of Pluto in the year 1930. Scientists believed that the orbital perturbations observed in Uranus and Neptune might have been due to the presence of some planetary object. This was later confused with Nibiru and was widely believed that the ‘Planet X’ is nothing but the fated Nibiru. It only took small astronomical discoveries for many to make these linkages. When NASA discovered a small brown dwarf in 1984, it did not take much time for the doomsday believers to make their own assumptions. Then there are assumptions that nothing could contradict the doomsday theory about Nibiru when pictures circulating on the internet support the claim. In the language of science, if something is not established due to the lack of concrete evidence, scientists tend to express their doubts while maintaining their objectivity. This doubt has been taken as leverage to support the belief that the pictures belong to Nibiru. In fact, they are not. According to scientists, they are possibly gas clouds that seem to be quite distant. Name 5 SUN’S ALIGNMENT WITH THE GALACTIC EQUATOR The galactic equator is the plane that corresponds to the center of the galaxy. Like the earth revolves round the sun, the sun also revolves round the Milky Way galaxy. However, it oscillates up and down during the course of its revolution. According to the Mayan predictions, the sun will exactly align with the center of the galaxy in the winter solstice of the year 2012. At that point, it will pass through what they consider as the Dark Rift. In doing so, terrible consequences will bring about events that will engulf the earth. However, it is not quite correct. For one thing, the sun is pretty much far away from the center of the galaxy which comes to around 30,000 light years. Thus the only effect that the earth actually encounters is from the gravitational forces of the sun and the moon. Moreover, the alignment of the sun and the galactic equator is one thing; predicting it is another. This phenomenon occurs once in a million years thus rendering it impossible for the scientists to predict the exact or even the nearest time. Had the galactic alignment occurred, it wouldn’t have caused any mayhem as it is just like passing through an interface where the planes of two planets meet. There is one other alignment which is most often confused with that of the galactic alignment. This is the aligning of the earth, the sun and the center of the Milky Way galaxy when taken from our viewpoint. This type of alignment occurs every year in the winter solstice and is considered as an event of no consequence. There is no specific reason why this year should be different than any other year. In effect, it was more the dark rift theory of the Mayans that actually believes in linking the galactic alignment with any kind of events. In reality and according to science, no such events have been known or are believed to occur anywhere in the near future. Name 6 SOLAR FLARES The sun sees an increased solar activity after a period of eleven years during which solar flares may interrupt the life on earth—not in the way the doomsday theory speaks about, but in a lot more technical way. During these heightened solar activity, there may be some disturbances in the satellite transmissions. The interesting fact is that scientists are on the verge of developing satellites that are immune to the effect of solar activities. But some activities occur in the upper layer of the atmosphere that causes temporary disturbances in the communication equipment. The X-rays released from the sun travel at the speed of light. When they reach the earth’s atmosphere, the atmospheric gases react with them thus leading to ionization. Now, an increase in the solar activity leads to a heightened production of electrons in the ionosphere due to the reaction between X-rays and atmospheric gases. This sudden increase in electrons leads to disturbances in satellite communications as they tend to absorb the waves. As a result, all that is affected is a bit of a communication which our engineers are trying to fix. However, at the universal level, things may be a bit different. Technically, a solar flare that can literally harm the earth would only be produced not before some billions of years when the sun starts to fade away. In that event, there would be a supernova explosion which would send out that devastating flare that the doomsday theory supports. In reality, this phenomenon has occurred in other parts of this huge universe where they have been termed as “killer flares”, literally justifying their name. “The huge flare occurred on the main component of the close double star, II Pegasi, located 135 light-years from Earth, and weighs 0.8 times the mass of the Sun” (Ratcliffe 47). Name 7 REVERSAL OF EARTH’S MAGENETIC FIELD Earth’s magnetic field experiences reversal at unpredictable times and at even more unpredictable intervals. A geomagnetic reversal pertains to the fact that the magnetic north pole may shift towards the south and vice versa. The reason for the same is pretty much unknown. “There is no general theory for the origin of the geomagnetic field. However, it is recognized that the main particle originates within the Earth, and must be caused by dynamic processes” (Kearey 75). But then, in contradiction to what the 2012 theories suggest, it is impossible or nearly impossible that such an event may cause any dangerous effects to the life on earth. This so-called magnetic reversal is associated with the Planet-X or Nibiru which, many believe, can bring in devastating events through what is called a geo-magnetic reversal. This may occur because of the planet’s pass through the orbital area as a result of which it is considered to have fatal consequences. According to data, these reversals are occurring in the most irregular manner in comparison to many other astronomical activities. It is considered that the shortest interval between such reversals was a few hundred years while the longest duration didn’t amount to less than a few billion years. It is interesting to note that the northern lights which are so famously known as “Aurorae” and is seen over the arctics will then be seen equally or fully at other latitudes. Since many migratory birds have an internal sense of these polar directions, their migratory direction would be affected. But as far as the consequences related to the 2012 theories are concerned, no tremendous effects would follow even if a geomagnetic reversal actually happens. Name 8 THE BLACK HOLE MYSTERY A black hole exerts a tremendous amount of gravitational pull on everything around it because of it being highly dense. “A black hole is, by definition, a region in space time in which the gravitational field is so strong that it precludes even light from escaping to infinity” (Frolov 1). And it would not be honest to claim that there is no black hole looming around, at least in our galaxy. In fact, there is—right in the middle of the galaxy. The black hole that is supposedly to create havoc in 2012 as per the doomsday conspiracy weighs 3 million times as much as the Sun—a weight too large in magnitude but a weight too less to be able to exert enough force to capture a planet that is around 30,000 light years away from it. As discussed earlier, the Mayans believed that when the galactic alignment of the sun tends to occur with that of the earth, the black hole at the centre of the earth will gobble up the planet. This theory in itself does not stand good because of the impracticality of the effect that a galactic alignment would cause and at the same time the enormity of the distance between the earth and the center of the galaxy where the black hole is located. The possibility of the galaxy being sucked up by a black hole is not totally impractical; however, it may take millions of years for such an event to come into effect, at least on the basis of the data collected by our researchers. Some theorists suggest that at this particular time, the gravitational influence of the black hole would be very high and it has been linked to the frequently occurring thunderstorms and tsunamis. It would be prudent to recollect that natural disasters like floods, thunderstorms, etc. have been occurring even before life evolved on earth. Name 9 ASTEROID IMPACT An asteroid is a small body that revolves round the sun. Not that the earth has been far away from an asteroid to be safe; there have been close encounters before and there will be from time to time. The closeness is only in the theoretical term which means that the major asteroids that were considered to be too close to earth were in fact far enough to spare a concern. Some of the examples include the asteroids Toutatis and Apophis—both still being considered as looming threats by many. “On September 29, 2004, Toutatis passed within just four times the distance from Earth to the Moon” (Elkins 89). As far as December 2012 is concerned, the asteroid Toutatis is still considered to mark an impact as it passes close to earth. As per data, the closest it can get to earth has been calculated as 4 million miles. This distance is approximately eighteen times the distance between the earth and the moon—thus rendering any plausible harm to the earth. But the matter with Apophis is not the same. It is predicted to come close to earth as much as within half the distance between the earth and the moon. A close encounter with earth is believed to happen somewhere in 2029, although a hit is out of the way. The only major concern is that it may leave a keyhole which is almost half a mile in the space that would set up a later impact after a few years. But all these theories are far from corresponding to the 2012 doomsday theory which predicts an exact devastation at a given point of time. The above stated predictions, in effect, are purely scientific observations arriving out of precise data from the various authentic sources. And it still remains to see what the practical events are regardless of the accurate observations. Name 10 PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS The term planetary alignment means when two or more planets align themselves in straight line which places them in the same quadrant. Now, in regard to the 2012 theory, some versions have gone as far as describing a simple planetary alignment to wreck havoc on the Earth. Planets are known to have their effects on living beings, albeit, on a different scale. They were and never will be responsible for ravaging the earth as despite of their large masses, they are pretty much farther from earth so as to cause any damage. Some of the early alignments happened in the years 1962 and 2000. These alignments-- though caused some stir among the people-- never caused anything that could even distantly support the doomsday theory. The next grand alignment is predicted in 2040 where the five planets Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, and the crescent Moon will be taking part. But then, as history has testified and as science has explained, nothing of consequence is going to happen. Theories suggest that Saturn and Jupiter are going to align in 2012 which is false because as per research, they may not be even close. And as far as their effect is to be considered on the Earth, it is too negligible given the distance between us and the planets. The moon, in fact, has greater effect on the earth which is evident from the tides. The great distance amounting to 400 million miles is too long to have any effect on the Earth. While arguing these stories, it may still be noted that no such alignments are predicted for the year 2012 that has attracted so much of attention. And whatever alignments have been predicted may not have any consequence upon the living beings on the Earth. Name 11 SUPERNOVA EXPLOSION A supernova pertains to a dying star that eventually runs out of what can be termed as its fuel. The star ultimately shrinks and then explodes which releases a massive amount of energy into the universe. This explosion or its remnants may remain for around some weeks or even months causing illumination. It is to be noted that the energy released during a supernova explosion is massive and it is many times in magnitude that of the sun. However, no such supernova is so close to earth so as to flare the planet with the deadly gamma rays. Supernova explosions are likely to occur within a few decades in a galaxy of the size of our Milky Way. But what matters is the distance between the star and our planet before we can further our doomsday predictions. “Betelgeuse is a red super-giant star located in the constellation Orion between 490-780 light years from Earth” (Vintner 82). It is a dying star that is considered to explode within a short frame of time. The short frame here represents somewhere more than 600 years. And although the effect of the supernova can be seen with the naked eye, it may just appear as another moon like illuminated object during the daylight. There is another star named Eta Carinae which is almost 7500 light years away from earth. Its mass is around 150 times more than the Sun. Scientists believe that this star is on the verge of explosion and it could be visible to the naked eye—again nothing more than an illuminated moon in the daylight. However, when the star would explode is still a mystery to many as researchers have a divided opinion regarding the same. Some say the explosion is only a matter of time while others say it may still take some thousands of years for the giant to explode. Regardless of the explosion instant, all that matters—as far as the doomsday theory is concerned—is the mere impracticality of any threat to life on the Earth by a star that is some thousands of light years away. Name 12 EARTHQUAKES An earthquake is caused when a massive amount of energy is released from the earth’s crust, mostly due to tectonic movements. According to the doomsday theories, many factors like the sun’s galactic alignment, the planetary alignment, or even a supposed geomagnetic reversal is likely to invoke tremendous earthquakes on earth. As discussed earlier, none of the theories are even near to rationality, let alone bear any practical implications on human life on this planet. “Every thirty seconds there is a tremor somewhere on the earth, totaling over five thousand tremors a year” (Reed 10). This means that at any given point of time, there may be a tremor at any place on the earth. As a result, to predict that a quake may occur on a given date is more of a probability dependent aspect rather than any doomsday prediction theory. It may be noted that an earthquake is one of the least predictable activities. “It is difficult to give an overall and accurate prediction objectively because many direct factors arousing the earthquake cannot be measured, and the relationship between earthquake and the observed precursors is strongly non-linear” (Wang 533). Theorists supporting the 2012 theory may argue that the recent earthquakes all around the world act as testimony to the inevitable. If the magnitude and the frequency of the earthquakes are to be taken into consideration as proofs of the inevitable destruction, then probably our planet would have been destroyed around thousands of years ago. Because, the earth has been shaken by such earthquakes numerous times in the past and with intensities much higher than what we have witnessed in the recent centuries. Name 13 TSUNAMIS AND VOLCANOES A Tsunami is a series of large water waves caused by the displacement of a huge volume of water body by a range of factors like earthquakes, volcanoes etc. A volcano in turn is a hole in the earth’s crust that acts as a release point for the hot lava and gases from the earth’s interior. One of the interesting points to note in this context is that earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanoes are inter-related. If an earthquake can trigger a tsunami, a volcano can lead to an earthquake. But none of these natural events have anything to do with the 2012 theories. The very creation of the earth was linked to volcanoes and although there are not many active ones, volcanoes do exist—some being under oceans. There is a theory about the Yellowstone Caldera to erupt in 2012. It is a fact that this volcano exists and the last time it had erupted, it had exhausted a huge amount of dust. This was several thousand years ago. “The eruptions during this time have been enormous- Yellowstone has erupted some 6000 cubic kilometers of magma in total- though this is only a small fraction of the phenomenal volume of magma that has been intruded under the crust” (Lopes 156). Not that its eruption is impractical in the future but whether it would erupt now or a few million years down the line is for nobody to guess. Similar is the case for tsunami. Just as the earthquake happens due to tectonic movements, the tsunamis occur due to the movement of the plates beneath the ocean which is as difficult to predict as an earthquake. The only advantage here is that since there is a small delay between the quake and the occurrence of tsunami, it gives a bit of a chance for some forecasts. “Tsunami travel at jet speeds, but for many places there may be several hours between the earthquake and the arrival of sea waves” (Gupta 1491). But that is it. No accurate prediction is practically possible that can mark the event to a particular day. Name 14 CONCLUSION So much has been spoken about the year 2012 everywhere. From the Hollywood to the internet, people seem to have a grand time inventing all possible theories that can destruct the earth. From time and again, scientists have tried to prove that although many events are possible, the intensity of those events may never amount to such a large scale which may result in the destruction of this planet. What has propagated this scare? What has made rationality seem a joke? It may be considered as the mere ignorance or the pessimistic attitude of mankind that has spread an ancient calendar’s details over to the people in a frighteningly modified way. Over and over again our researchers have tried to explain why certain events occur and that there is a valid scientific theory that describes the occurrence. In certain cases the lack of information has made scientists to add the word ‘may’ in their observations. And to our mere disgust, a simple doubt is considered as a cover-up or a conspiracy. It may be noted that as discussed in the paper, certain events occur at time intervals that are very large, say millions of years. This lends the researchers helpless because with little or no detail to build a solid foundation, claims cannot be justified. What lends credence to science is that many theories have been accurately established. For example, the passing of Nibiru through the orbital plane every 3600 years does not hold well because it is apparent that in case such an event had occurred, then there would have been considerable disturbances in the planets. No such thing was ever noticed or established. Several theories have stemmed from internet hoaxes and over the time found a permanent place in the minds of doomsday conspiracy supporters. But it is a fiction that the 2012 would see the end of the earth. That everything would be destroyed and life will come Name 15 to an end was predicted earlier and duly postponed because such a thing never happened. It would be interesting to note that in the event nothing turns out in the December of 2012, a later date may be established. This may be followed by linking all the disastrous events, man-made or natural, in perfect synchronization with the theories. But time and again, it has been proved that there is nothing beyond rationality—what science terms as logic. Name 16 Works Braden, Gregg, Peter Russell. The Mystery of 2012: Predictions, Prophecies & Possibilities. Canada: Sounds True, 2007. Print. Gilbert, Adrian. 2012 Mayan Year of Destiny. U.S.A.:A.R.E. Press, 2007. Print. Weeks, Sandy, Jo Nitschke. Apocalypse or a Golden Age? U.S.A.: Dorrance Publishing Co. Inc., 2011. Print. Ratcliffe, Martin. State of the Universe: Images, Discoveries, and Events. U.S.A.: Springer-Praxis books, 2008. Print Kearey P., Keith A. Klepeis, F. J. Vine. Global Tectonics. UK: John Wiley and Sons Ltd., 2009. Print. Frolov, Valerii Pavlovich, Igor’ DmitrievichNovikov. Black hole physics: basic concepts and new developments. Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1998. Print. Etkins-Tanton, Linda T. Asteroids, Meteorites, and Comets. U.S.A.: Facts on File Inc., 2010. Print. Vintner J., Ancient Earth Mysteries. U.S.A.: Create Space, 2011. Print. Print.Wang, Jun Li Jim, Xiaofeng Liao, Zhang Yi. Advances in neural networks – ISNN. Germany: Springer, 2005. Reed, Jennifer. Earthquakes: disaster & survival. U.S.A.: Enslow Publishers, Inc., 2005. Print. Lopes, Rosaly M. C., Rosaly Lopes. The Volcano Adventure Guide. U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 2005. Print. Gupta, Harsh. Encyclopedia of Solid Earth Geophysics. Netherlands: Springer, 1989. Print. Read More