People Making Predictions - Book Report/Review Example

In my opinion, these examples paint a misleading picture, but an unfair one definitely not. All the necessary information, past and present, was out in the open for everyone to evaluate. Unfair would mean that crucial factors were purposely omitted, that for example, T. Boone Pickens made investing in oil seem like a solid deal, or that Jim Cramer made buying Wachovia seem the right thing to do, by neglecting to mention the real state of affairs. They might have painted a misleading picture through emphasizing how well the company is currently doing, and neglecting to mention other factors that might point otherwise.

In conclusion, they were making a sale by making their product seem appealing, while anyone who was interested in knowing the real picture just had to put all the facts together and make a reasonable conclusion. 2. That perceptual errors exist is most frequently regarded as a fundamental fact about perception and indirectly, decision-making. Perception presupposes a particular understanding of the object of perception, and if this understanding lacks ground in reason, the outcome could very possibly be wide of the mark.

Provided that all these people whose job it is to evaluate the market and make good, solid predictions about it, had all the necessary information about its fluctuation, one can only conclude that they made the wrong call and their decision making was blurred by the current success of the company/name in question. Or, as was the case of Bijan Moazami, they do make predictions that closely resemble the real deal. Still, making highly accurate predictions about a thing as unstable as the market requires not only knowledge and ability to evaluate, but to also have luck while doing so. 3. People are prone to making predictions, because in tumultuous times they seek at least some sort of safety and balance.

Predictions represent reasoning about the future, which in turn symbolizes the ancient human wish to foretell what will happen, and thus for man, to be prepared for what is to come. Man only possesses the past and the present, and naturally that which would satisfy him most, the future, is not his to have. Therefore, he tries to predict, make a prophecy, foretell and foresee what will befall him. 4. Predictions are molding of current information into future outcome, and this seems simple enough.

That is, it would be simple if man wasn’t a being with emotions and subjective means of making conclusions, a fact which sometimes makes his predictions less like reasonable outcome and more like wishful thinking, as if the mere fact of us wanting it to be so, makes it so.