Trend Analysis and Forecasting in Health Care - Essay Example

"Trend Analysis and Forecasting in Health Care" is an engrossing example of a paper on care.
Conditions in the health care sector are constantly changing. As a nurse leader or manager, it is of importance to identify and project existing trends to have a clear picture of future conditions or challenges that could impact negatively on health care. Forecasting is of benefit as it presents organizations with an opportunity to align their activities or processes with future needs hence elevating their chances of achieving positive results in the future. This discussion provides an analysis of the impact of a selected trend on nursing and health care in the coming decade. Additionally, this discussion explicates how this trend creates or contributes to an unmet need that a specific group, unit, or organization may encounter now or in the coming years.

Emerging trend

One of the emerging trends can be viewed in the context of geriatrics. According to Ursell (2011, p. 94), expenditure associated with operating care homes for geriatrics is increasing as daily expenditure in terms of cost of goods and labor continues to rise. This emerging trend indeed puts the health of the older generation at risk. These soaring expenditures as stipulated by Ursell (2011) "Are more difficult for care homes to bear as funding drops and government policy places the emphasis on personalization of care, which often results in lower occupancy". A huge percentage of old people in care homes are incapable of paying for their own fees. In this regard, they rely on local authorities to finance their care. The increase in operating costs in these care homes has forced local authorities to impose significant cuts on these funds intended to assist those who cannot afford their own care.   

Impact of the trend in the coming decade

According to Weiss (2010), health care organizations operating on insufficient funds are likely to be shut down in the coming decade. In addition, Weiss (2010) notes that this is likely to be accompanied by insufficient reimbursements, poor quality of services as a result of the inability to access funds for investment, inability to improve care homes and implement strategies associated with the adoption of modern technology (Peters, 2012), increased costs of drugs, and low level of employees. In other words, the cost of care for the geriatrics will soar and consequently, a large proportion will not be able to access appropriate care. It is also worth noting that increased costs of operating care homes mean that individuals will not be able to access care of their preference (Ursell, 2011). Ursell (2011) explicates the fact that personalization of care will be the basis through which local authorities will use to deny individuals their preferred care. This is attributed to policies such as the Community Care Act of 1990 that curtailed the power and autonomy of individuals financed by the local authorities to select their preferred care (Ursell, 2011).

How this trend contributes to an unmet need for geriatrics

Health care quality and safety issues are dependent on the available resources. In extrapolation, the rising cost of operating care homes will limit available resources and as a result, the ability of these care homes to meet the needs of individuals will be curtailed. As much as geriatrics and other individuals in need of specialized care in care homes require affordable and high-quality care, rising operating costs will increase the cost of care, and hence meeting their needs will not be achievable. In a nutshell, rising costs of commodities and high costs of labor in the contemporary world have impacted the cost of operating care homes. In projection, this development is likely to limit the number of geriatrics accessing affordable and quality care in the coming decade.