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Political sience home work - Assignment Example

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If 53% of the members of the congress house are republicans, this then directly implies that the remaining 47% are democrats. This being the case, these figures can be expressed as decimals or rather probabilities as:
The total number is further more reduced because the…
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Political sience home work
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Homework a) The probability here is worked by a simple step of summing up the probabilitiesof all probabilities which are less than the variable X = 4 i.e.
P(X10) = 1 – P(X=10)
Note that probability of P(X=10) is totally equal to the P(X=8). Hence this results to
P(X>10) = 1- P(X=8)
= 1 – 0.08
= 0.92
2. If 53% of the members of the congress house are republicans, this then directly implies that the remaining 47% are democrats. This being the case, these figures can be expressed as decimals or rather probabilities as:
Republicans 53/100 = 0.53
Democrats 47/100 = 0.47
When 3 members are then chosen then in random the probability that they are democrats is calculated as follows:
The first time of picking the name the probability is of picking a democrat is o.47 or 47/100.
The second time of picking, the total number of names has now reduced to the 99 hence; probability of picking a democrat member is 46/99.
The total number is further more reduced because the withdrawals are done without replacement (Schervish, 2011) and now the total remaining names are 98 thus the probability of getting a democrat a third time will be 45/98.
The probability of getting three democrats in the first 3 withdraws of names will eventually be
= (47/100) X (46/99) X (45/98)
= 97290/970200
= 0.1002783
3. 64% being males, this implies that the 36% are females. The assumption taken here is that the 54% tenured refers to the entire population and the 46% is the untenured members of the university faculty. Gender and tenure being totally independent, then
a) The probability of a male being picked is 64/100 and further more for untenured case, the probability reads at, 46/100. This implies that to get untenured male being picked from the population, then the product of the two scenarios is taken i.e.
= (64/100) X (46/100)
= 0.2944 or 2944/10,000
b) To get a tenured female, the evaluations will be as follows;
Probability of females = 36/100
Probability of tenure ship = 54/100
Thus tenured female probability will be = (36/100) X (54/100)
= 1944/10,000 or 0.1944
4. a) The republicans = 40
The democrats = 35
The probability of picking a democrat from this room will be evaluated and given as follows:
Total number of members in the house = 40 + 35 = 75
Total number of democrats = 35
Hence probability (Schervish, 2011) of picking a democrat = (total number of democrats)/(total number of members in the house)
= 35/75 = 0.4666667
b) The democrats who are supporting increase of nuclear power amounts to 31% of all the democrats in the house. This translates to a figure that amounts 10.85 democrats supporting this bill. Thus getting the probability of picking a democrat who is supporting this motion in this room, then this will be given by;
= (number of democrats supporting it)/ (total number of members in the room)
= 10.85/ 75 = 0.144667
c) Out of the 75 members present in this house, only 6% are opposing. This implies that 6% of 75 = 4.5 are opposing. This translates to (2/4.5) X (6/100) = 0.26667

Work Cited
Schervish, M. Student Solutions Manual for Probability and Statistics: New Jersey: Pearson, 2011. Print Read More
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