Future Trading Aspects in the Middle East - Essay Example

1. What issue do you think is likely to be the dominant theme in the study of Middle East today and in the future?    Future Trading Aspects – the area as a whole is still underdeveloped and the economies of several states are still dependent on revenues generated from hydrocarbons only. Rising oil process may assist in wealth generation to some countries in the Middle East, but not all of them. For the Middle East to develop it is important that the region’s economy integrates with the global economy through open trade agreements. Some countries in the Middle East have resorted to Bilateral and multilateral trade agreements. Bahrain’s mutual contract with the United States has set an example for other neighboring countries to follow. United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have shown their interests for the same, but Saudi Arabia sees this as disadvantageous to the regional cooperation in the region.   Political Concerns – With the mounting pressure of the international community to switch to democratic forms of government, there might by a ray of hope but the chances are still very few due to major groups and regimes still against democratization. Further, the weak, illiterate and unprotected citizens’ low demand for democracy and insufficient international pressure may not be sufficient for regime changes in the Middle East.   Regional Clashes and Terrorism – the Arab – Israeli conflict is supposed to carry itself in the times to come and become a serious threat to the security of the region. Also, since a major part global terrorism is being funded by the Middle East regimes, Terrorism will continue in more fragmented manner than before.   Influence of China and India on the region – China and India have emerged as the major power countries both as investors and consumers of the Middle East and this will tend to play an effective role in shaping the political as well as the economic reform of the region.  Moreover, in the wake of any changes in the regime structure, the Middle East refers to China and Russia as salient models than the US or any other democracy.   Restoration of the Shia Community – the main impact of the US invasion on Iraq was the revival of the Shia community. Shia community is seen as a liberal party with an emotional  value and symbolism. Gaining power and acceptance once again into the society and political front in Iraq may lead to cross border harmonization of Iraq with other countries. A number of renowned Shia figures have spent time in Iraq and Iran and are now wiling to come back to Iraq, which may lead to significant political and social changes in the country.   Rising of Iran – The analysis of Iran gaining power in the region and becoming the most powerful player in the region is of importance to experts. Ever since it acquired nuclear capacity, (which is still under wraps), Iran has been nurturing its political and economic ambitions and increasing its influence in the Middle East and central Asia. Iran wants the world and the United States to identify it as a regional power and therefore, the United States - Iran enmity is likely to go on in the future as well.   2. Do you think that the Middle East will continue be on the United Stated foreign policy agenda---For good or for bad? And do you think that the EU (Europe) will compete against the role of the U.S. in the region?    As for now, Middle East will be one of the priorities on the US foreign policy agenda for the times to come. US has been playing an important and constructive role in peace talks and negotiations in the region. In spite of the Arab – Israeli conflict in the Middle East, US has been diplomatic in maintaining ties with both of them and is trying hard to resolve the conflicts. Also the US intends to work together with Israel and Egypt on developing their economic, political and military concerns. Therefore, for now, the United States is willing to put Middle East on its foreign policy to help the regimes in the region to acquire stability both economically and politically, (US Country reports, 2005).   Even as both Europe and the United States race against each other in the economic and commercial aspect in the Middle East, their main interests in the region are the same. United States prioritize the safety of friendly states, in particular Israel, demand free flow of oil, and putting an end to terrorism funding from the region. The Europeans on the other hand, pay attention to the security of the whole region and not one country in particular. EU is a trading partner with almost country in the Middle East and fears uncontrolled migration from these countries including terrorists’ activities. EU has no set policy on Iraq and tends to follow the United States on the issue. However, EU has policy differences with the United States on the subject of Iran and have also been involved in constructive dialogue with the country. At present, the EU is largely fragmented and neither deny the role and the political leadership of the United States in the Middle East region. The EU looks towards the United States as the main peace broker in the region, at times also be critical of the lack of persistence of US to resolve the region issues and currently have no intentions of counterbalancing the US policies in the region.     3. Do we have reasons to fear or welcome the Middle East future?   This section will study the major concerns and issues presiding over the Middle East and its future.    U.S. has time and again stressed the need of a democracy policy and larger political freedom in the Middle East, as a tool to depress the forces of Islamic extremism. As the propaganda distributed by the U.S. in all international forums gained weight, the U.S. policy makers in unison with the United Nations are thoughtful about the policies to be constructed for the sensitive region to eradicate all future threats to the security of the region. There are a number of Islamic groups in the region who have openly oppose the policies proposed by the U.S. and the UN. The U.S. interference and its pressure over the governments in the region to switch to democratic forms has long been irking the radical section of the Middle East. With all these issues, experts ask whether the U.S. interference in the region is right for the region’s future stability and will the region’s democratization lead to future stability of the region. Another concern in the region is that of Iran. Facing the likelihood that Iran confirms its nuclear capacity in near future, countries in the Middle east are searching options to protect themselves and perk their own security systems. Constantly denying its nuclear capacities, and vehemently opposing any sanctions, the country is a source of worry to its neighbors. However, they do not fear an attack from a nuclear capable Iran, but the impact of the repercussions of an ever more distressed global community that may attack Iran to discontinue its nuclear dream, in this manner directly confronting the security of the Middle East.  However, there exists another possibility that a regional Middle East alliance, barring Israel, accepts the leadership of a nuclear Iran.  The political atmosphere post Iraq war has been in Iran’s advantage which can complete its dream of becoming the most powerful country in the Middle east, which is a significant cause of worry to the US and UN. Another issue that demands attention is the rising demand of a genuine and reliable political stability in Iraq. At the same time, it is important that the US in close proximity with the UN helps to build a strong Iraqi nation that aims to possess peaceful national settlements, safety, and governance for the people of Iraq. At the same time, it is imperative that the countries neighboring Iraq show support to the building nation and at the same time emphasize stability and safety, (Madeline and Weber, 2005). Also, to ensure the economic development of the country, more trading and industrial development should be initiated so that the existing high unemployment in the country subsequently decreases. The aid given to Iraq can never be sufficient until country revives its relationships with the currently uneasy and nervous border regions so that an open economic strategy linked with a broad political policy takes shape. Conventionally, the armed forces in the Middle East have been kept back as weak for intentional purpose by the rulers for their own personal motives to avoid any military coup against them and Iraq is no exception. Increase in the deployment of more Iraqi forces and removal of foreign army from the country, will help the nation to become independent in providing security to its countrymen. Without doubt, miracles are not expected to occur in a short time span, but the Iraqi population can wish for successful execution of stable policies and governance structure in their country. Nevertheless, by following new tactics, the country can positively stare frontward to accomplish development of its economy.   Discussing other smaller concerns in the region like the democratic elections that were executed in Iraq, Egypt, Morocco and Palestine underneath the mounting US pressure have not showed the anticipated results. Escalation of the political Islamic segments that decline to discard aggression and anti U.S. Policies is also a cause of concern for the future safety of the region.   Therefore, it seems that, definitely there are grave concerns for the security of the Middle East in the times to come and the future may not be as welcoming as expected, but these problems might be solved with due diligence and constant persuasion in talks with the Islamists and secularists for peace and security in the region and to the world REFERENCES 1. U.S. State Department’s Country Reports on Terrorism and Patters of Global Terrorism 2005. Available at [http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/65472.pdf]. 2. Madeline K. Albright and Vin Weber, In Support of Arab Democracy: Why and How,” Council on Foreign Relations Independent Task Force Report No.54, , 2005. Read More