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UtilityProbability Tree Analysis - Essay Example

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If we are too search for terrorists we are 90% certain that we are going to reach their secret hideout. However, this is very certain and we should go and find their hideout. However, once we reach there we have 70% chance that the hostages will not be booby-trapped and only 30% chance that these hostages will be booby-trapped…
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UtilityProbability Tree Analysis
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Download file to see previous pages However, if these hostages are booby trapped, there is 80% chance that some or all of the hostages will be killed and only 20% chance that all of the hostages will be saved. Considering both events, we can clearly see that in any event our chances of saving hostages are less than 50%. This means that it is more likely that all of the hostages will not be saved and hence we should plan our excursion in a way as to minimize the losses and to see if it is worth undertaking an excursion where all hostages cannot be saved. We should look at other alternative and make sure that if there are better options available where there are brighter chances of saving the hostages than the current situation. If there are other means and methods available then we should focus on the option where there is a most likely chance of saving the hostages. However, if there is no other option available than this excursion is the best possible option, and our team should focus on minimizing the losses as much as possible. ...Download file to see next pagesRead More
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