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Delphi Technique of Forecasting - Case Study Example

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My organization uses the Delphi Technique of forecasting. This particular method of forecasting takes the help of experts in the fields in making predictions for the future. It is non quantitative method. Since it is considered to be based on expert opinion hence it is more accurate than other procedures.
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Download file to see previous pages There after results are tabulated and issues raised are identified one by one. This step helps the planner to carefully study the various important issues to be addressed in the next round. It needs to be mentioned here that it is the same questionnaire that is given to all the experts in the panel. These days the questionnaire is sent through mail.
Now we come to the second round where the planar tries to hold a meeting with all the experts together and the results of the questionnaire are then return the experts. There are issues where experts agree where as there are some other issues on which they disagree. It is carefully noted by the planner and a general consensus is reached.
Finally we come to the third round where the various factors are reevaluated by everyone together and the issues are carefully discussed. In this particular Delphi method group judgments are more important than individual judgments.
Information processing. The experts collect the answers in the form of questionnaires and comments. The panel head controls the exchange of ideas among the experts by processing the data and deleting the unnecessary content. Usually the experts engage in disagreements during the panel discussion and hence it has negative effect.
Anonymity of participants. ...
Regular Feedback: The experts give comments on their own forecasts and it is very much valued by the planner.
Anonymity of participants. There is complete anonymity of the participants because the nature of the experts might vary and during the discussion they may try to bully others or some not voice their opinion due to fear of opposition.
Role of the facilitator. The role of the facilitator is very important during the discussion among the experts. He interprets the various view points raised by the participants and comes to a conclusion.
Uses of Delphi Method in forecasting
The Delphi method is very useful in the field of science & technology. Since my organization is into a broadband connection it is particularly very helpful in analyzing the market. The researcher of my organization through his questionnaire has tries to find out the demand of various broadband connection plans across the length and breadth of the country since India has a huge market which needs to be covered by the internet network the feedback given by the participants becomes very valuable to the company. The feedback highlighted various issues on which the experts agreed i.e. the example the different broadband scheme to suit everybody's budget. But they disagreed as to the pricing of the various connection plans. But however a general consensus was reached in the final round and the outcome was positive.
The Delphi method however has its drawbacks and may not be always as accurate as it states but the method is not at fault rather the reporting or the interpretation of the feedback taken from the participants may not necessarily give us the true picture as to the future predictions.
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