The Impact of Chinas Military Modernization on East Asian Security in Decades to Come - Research Paper Example

The impact of China’s military modernization on East Asian security in decades to come China, the land of dragon, is on a rise and this rise is not just in terms of economic growth but also in terms of modernizing the military. This combined growth has led to China being on the path to being a global power. China becoming a global power has its repercussions for not just the East Asian region, the region that it is basically associated with, but also for the entire world, considering developed countries, such as America, have not been in the best terms with China. Such political repercussions are a direct result of China’s economic growth and its military modernization. To be honest, China’s military modernization has been a matter of greater concern for countries such as America, East Asian countries and India. Through this paper we discuss the efforts of China in modernizing the military; we also discuss the effect of such modernization on the military environment of East Asia and its security and the effect of the modernization on the behaviour of America towards both China and East Asia. The paper provides a conclusion as to how the various factors have led to formulation of China’s security policy. Modernization of Military: Efforts of China David Shambaugh points out that China’s efforts to modernize military are a result of its conflict with Taiwan, its personal desire to become a global power, for regional security and a result of its military doctrine and defense policy.1 It is clear through Shambaugh’s observation that China’s efforts in modernizing its military are not limited to a single reason. Even though China’s main reason for modernization was its conflict with Taiwan and the other territorial conflicts it had always been a part of including the South China Sea conflict, but its own desire to become a world power has also led to its efforts. Also, it would be unfair if we limit the modernization efforts to such reasons. Every country has a need to secure its area and it would be unfair to point out only China’s efforts for modernization. Hence, it can be said that China’s efforts for modernization is a combined result of all the factors mentioned. Some of the developments by china that have been of much concern are: In November 2006 a Chinese submarine broached the surface in the vicinity of a US Navy aircraft carrier battle group steaming in the East China Sea, underscoring that the naval service of the People’s liberation army (PLA) is operating farther from China’s shores than it has at any time in modern history. In January 2007, a Chinese ground-based missile destroyed a Chinese satellite in space, not only creating a major debris field but also dramatically illustrating the potential vulnerabilities of militaries that rely on outer space for operational communications and battle space awareness. In April 2007, the PLA conducted a much publicized combined exercise with the armed forces of Russia, demonstrating a nascent ability to move men and material across china’s land borders.2 Other measures that are a source of concern for East Asian countries in particular are: A shift from land-based, protracted "People’s War" concepts, to embrace a more flexible, modernized capability to respond to limited conflicts along China’s periphery; A growing recognition that likely threats and security concerns to China will emanate from China’s southeast and east (the Korean peninsula, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, South China Sea, Vietnam, and the U.S. presence in the Pacific); A shift of procurement and logistics priorities to reflect these new concepts, with a focus on maritime assets.3 Further, China’s doctrine and principles of exerting nationalism and sovereignty over conflicted areas becomes a source of concern for East Asian countries. The exertion of sovereignty over Taiwan is a great source of concern for the country. China has always been proud about being a nationalistic country and this has resulted in its efforts to modernize military. These aggressive measures become a source of concern for its neighbouring countries. China’s security policy changed in the post cold-war era as it is indicated by Bergsten et al., in the post cold-war era, even though China recognized that there was no threat of being at odds against a single major power that would result in a major war, but at the same time it also realized that were still minor conflicts that it had to deal with.4 China realized that there was much instability in the world, not just was Taiwan a big issue for it but also there was other conflicts arising from the periphery such as the issue with Mongolia, India, Korea, Vietnam and others. Thus, China had to formulate a security policy to deal with such minor issues when needed. As a result of this, “the need for a more capable military to supplement other elements of Chinese national power deemed essential”.5 Besides the above factors China was quick to realize that expecting world where the power was shared by all post cold-war was an illusion, and that America was going to emerge as the next world power who would manipulate if not directly control the world. In such a scenario, China had no option but to modernize it’s military. China wanted the military to be able to cope up with future conflicts and hence understood the need to upgrade the technology to win wars. Besides that it understood the need for a military that was “short in duration but decisive in strategic outcome-i.e., a single campaign may decide the entire war.”6 Intelligent services needed upgrading with proper surveillance devices and strategies, besides it also understood the need for co-ordination between the three services- air force, navy and army. Bergsten et al. mention that China’s military budget has increased at double-digit rates. Further they mention that China’s military modernization occurred in three phases. The first phase was “development, procurement, acquisition, and fielding of new weapon systems, technologies, and combat capabilities”.7 The second phase involved systemic and institutional reform so that the military was able enough to handle the new technologies being introduced. The third phase was “development of new war-fighting doctrines”.8 The following table shows that China has been a major importer of new technologies which indicate how serious it is about modernizing its military. Table 1. New PLA Navy Plane Destroyer Classes9 Class Name Type Number built Hull numbers In service (actual or projected) Luhu 052 2 112, 113 1994, 1996 Luhai 051B 1 167 1999 LuyangI 052B 2 168,169 2004 Luyang II 052C 2 170, 171 2004, 2005 Table 2. New PLA Navy Frigate Class10 Class Name Type Number built or building Hull numbers In service (actual or projected) Jiangwei I 053G H2G 4 539-542 1991-1994 Jiangwei II 053H3 10 Between 521 and 567 1998-2005 Jiangkai 054 3 525, 526, n/a 2004-2006 Table 1. shows the number of destroyer ships that China has commissioned and Table 2. indicates the number of new frigate classes that PLA military has built. The data clearly indicates the efforts of China to improve its military. Table 3. Estimated Chinese production of selected major conventional weapons, 1981-8411 Weapon type 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1089 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 AIRCRAFT J-7 fighter 40 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 J-8 fighter 10 10 10 10 10 10 12 12 12 20-24 20-24 20-24 20-24 20-24 H-5 bomber 20-25 20-25 20-25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 H-6 bomber 5 5 5 5-6 5-6 5-6 5-6 5-6 5-6 5-6 0 0 0 0 JJ-5 trainer 50 50 50 50 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 JJ-6 trainer 50 50 50 50 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HJ-5 trainer 12 12 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q-5 attack 10-12 10-12 10-12 10-12 10-12 10-12 10-12 10-12 8-10 8-10 8-10 8-10 5 5 SHIPS Frigates 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 4 3 2 2 SUBMARINES Xia SSBN 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 In his CRS report for congress, Ronald O’Rourke observes that China has been significantly working in the direction to improve its warfare technologies. In a similar direction is its step to improve their anti-air warfare technology. Besides, the above mentioned efforts, China has also built three new classes of amphibious ships and a new class of mine countermeasures (MCW) ships.12 Today China has all its three forces nuclear-empowered, a feat that is common to mostly developed nations. This alone explains how far China has gone to improve its military. Besides, its infantry is the largest and its technology now is comparable to that of developed nations. It shows from time to time through strategic measures that it is a powerful nation. This show of power has had a great impact on the security environment of East Asian Countries as well as has led to counter measures from U.S.A. Impact of China’s military modernization on East Asian security environment China has been always considered a “threat” by its neighbouring countries and this notion has led to a tight security environment among them. Whether truth or just a pre-formed notion, China has certainly had an effect on the security environment of East Asian countries, which has to a certain extent also led to military modernization of the affected countries to match up with the growing power of China. China has had a direct conflict with Taiwan; its claim of sovereignty over Taiwan has always led to tensing up of situations between the two countries. Hence among the East Asian countries, the effect of China’s military modernization has perhaps been the greatest on Taiwan. Taiwan’s security might seem to be threatened by the developments of China; however it is to be noted that in the current scenario, it would not be that easy for China to encroach upon the security of Taiwan. Not just would China need co-ordination between the three forces for fighting a war with a nation that will be supported by superior powers such as America but also it will have to face being politically isolated from other nations as well, a scenario that it would prefer not being involved in considering its dream of becoming a world power. Swaine et al. in their book about China’s military and Taiwan’s security say that “Beijing’s overarching strategic objective is to increase its influence in Asia without provoking the emergence of a countervailing coalition of states”.13 Even though China seeks to obtain this objective but its assertion to nationalism prevents it from being true to its objective as it has time and again been pretty provocative towards Taiwan, which means other countries might also see it as a threat. China has been involved in increasing its military preparation, it passed anti-secession law and has been engaged in provocative diplomacy against Taiwan14. Under such conditions Taiwan has also sought to increase its own security. Swaine et al. mention that along the Taiwan strait there are 1000 civilian flights and that PLA air force began flying to the center line in 1998, and now runs at least six sorties a day. Taiwan on its part runs an equal amount of sorties.15 Thus, even though Taiwan might feel that it is supported by America and other nations but on its part it tries to ensure that it is secure from any untimely attack by China. Despite China’s efforts for reassurance, it still shows aggressiveness from time to time which means that countries like Taiwan feel the need to step up their security. Taiwan too has become a major importer of arms and has been involved in joint naval practices with America. Taiwan’s defensive practices are a direct result of how it feels its security might be encroached upon by China. Taiwan certainly feels threatened by China, in fact it is only usual to be threatened by a growing power with which you have not shared a good past and the present is not too bright. The future would obviously seem grim to the country that feels threatened. Further, such advances by China also threaten its other neighbouring countries. In general Asia and in particular the East Asian countries feel that this growing power of China is a big threat to them. It is only ironic that China’s reason for military modernization is because it felt threatened by the co-ordination between its neighbouring countries and America. China’s obsession with military modernization has to some extent resulted in arms proliferation in the area as the other countries of East Asia feel threatened by China and hence feel the need to step up their security. Asia-Pacific Recipients of Major Conventional Weapons, 1991-9516 Recipient 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1991-95 Japan 2386 1608 1260 829 799 6882 India 1799 1419 724 445 770 5158 China 188 1154 1180 529 1696 4747 Taiwan 562 503 1074 1110 980 4228 ROK 604 541 469 485 1677 3776 Thailand 620 863 162 785 888 3318 Pakistan 603 389 942 888 391 3212 Indonesia 143 69 370 827 711 2120 Malaysia 58 36 21 359 1120 1594 Myanmar 249 38 358 0 310 956 Singapore 335 74 116 181 91 797 Total 7954 7404 7455 6790 9794 39397 %global total 30.8 30.2 30.1 29.7 43.0 32.6 The table above represents the condition of arm proliferation in the Asia-Pacific area. It is pretty obvious from the data provided that the region has been importing weapons to step up its security arrangement. The data is a clear representative of how secure the countries feel. Even though we cannot say that the sole reason for arms proliferation in the area is China since the area deals with other conflicts as well, but China is definitely a big factor. Again if consider the case of Myanmar, it deals with internal conflict and arms proliferation is an effect of the need of army to contain people revolting against it. However, Myanmar is an exception considering it does not follow democracy. Also, China shouldn’t be solely held responsible because Japan too has its conflict with Korea and other nations. Since China and Japan had been the two major nations of East Asia that had earlier encroached the boundaries of other countries and ruled, but in general after the Nagasaki and Hiroshima incident Japan seemed more peaceful, especially because of its pledge to not allow arms proliferation in Japan and to not use nuclear power. Hence, the notion of china as a threat is more common. Arms Imports and Licensed Production in Eight Major East Asian Recipients, 1986-9517 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 4150 4153 4761 4013 4979 4893 4897 4652 5107 7962 *figures are in US $ million The table above represents data for China, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. The data shows that East Asian countries have been major importers of arms. Pollack and Yang mention that Asia-Pacific region with its long coastline certainly feels the need to secure it in order to “protect offshore resources and territorial claims”.18 The region certainly feels uncertain about their security condition. Sensing such uncertainty, countries will upgrade their defense capabilities. As Mohamed Jawhar, Deputy Director General of Malaysia’s Institute of Strategic and International Studies, notes, "One cannot discount the fact that we do look at our neighbors as we plan our military modernization. So in that sense, one could label it an arms race, but the term is tremendously misleading."19 Among the territorial disputes, the dispute of South China Sea has perhaps had the greatest impact in shaping security policy of the East Asian nations. China has been regarded as the most crucial actor on the South China Sea (SCS) dispute for a number of reasons. First of all, barring interference by other external powers, China is the strongest among all claimant states. Beijing’s words and actions with regard to the SCS have a direct and the most influential impact on the situation in the region. Second, China claims the largest area of the SCS, including the Paracels, the Spratlys, the Macclesfield Bank, and the Pratas. China’s claims overlap with those of other disputant states. Third, although there have been numerous skirmishes among the various parties in the SCS, major naval conflicts occurred between China and two of the other competing states, namely, with Vietnam over the Paracels in 1974 and the Spratlys in 1988, and with the Philippines over the Mischief Reef in 1995.20 Territorial disputes such as the one mentioned have had significant impact on the security policy of the East Asian countries. Territorial disputes always form an integral part in formulating security policy. Territorial disputes become a matter of pride for nations and hence become a reason to feel threatened or at least think of the situation as being hostile; hence it is only obvious that East Asian nations are dealing with arms proliferation considering their history of territorial disputes. In such a scenario, it would be unfair to blame that China should be blamed completely for an insecure environment in East Asia. The reason for arms proliferation is also a personal need of every country. However, at the same time, as had been mentioned again and again, the “china factor” cannot be ignored. It has certainly been a reason for other countries to feel threatened, even though China might not be completely at fault for this since nations always feel threatened by a powerful nation, but this feeling has certainly had an impact on the security environment of East Asia. East Asia has due to such factors been involved in modernizing its military. This situation might continue to remain the same, especially since China has been growing at a rate faster than ever. East Asia feels insecure not because China might necessarily become powerful enough to gain control over them, especially since it would need a highly coordinated forces to be able to do that, but because the general presumption among East Asian countries is of China being a big threat to their security. Despite China’s reassurance measures, it doesn’t seem that any of the East Asian country would risk endangering its security. Impact of China’s military modernization on the behavior of the U.S.A. Impact of China’s military modernization is not just limited to East Asia but as China grows more powerful, the behavior of America towards East Asia seems to be also changing. It has always been obvious that America has always wanted to contain the efforts of China to become powerful. America perhaps sees in China the potentiality to become a world power, in its attempt to avoid that, it has been helping East Asian nations and India, the other emerging nation of Asia. America’s efforts clearly indicate that America too feels threatened by China. America reasons that if China becomes a world power than it would not be good for the world since it is a communist country with no value for people’s individual rights. Tiananmen incident has only added to its bad reputation. America has perhaps used this pre-formed image of China to retain its influence by helping other East Asian countries who also feel threatened by China’s presence in the region. America has always tried to keep a constant presence in the area. In fact Japan is considered a close associate of America that provides military bases and areas where American army has had a constant presence and practices its techniques. Besides America has also maintained the strategy to provide arms to countries such as Taiwan that are under direct pressure from China. America has always been pretty open in its support towards Taiwan. America also practices joint naval exercises as a sign of its close association with East Asian countries. What favors the presence of America in such regions is the craze among people to be Americanized. The influence of America cannot be ignored. It is not just its military superiority but also the vast opportunities that it seems to provide to immigrants that have the East Asian nations acting in accordance to the wishes of America. Under such circumstances, America has always been pretty friendly to East Asian nation. It sees these friendships as a measure to ensure its control over the Asian region which might otherwise come under the control of China. America has a major role to play in the Taiwan Strait conflict. It has always openly supported Taiwan for being a democratic country; therefore it becomes a duty of America to help Taiwan in case a war happens between Taiwan and China. The other territorial conflict in which America has played a major role is the South China Sea conflict. According to Chinese strategists, in a nutshell, the United States has three purposes in its SCS policy. First, the United States wants to use the SCS dispute as part of its strategy to contain China. Second, Washington intends to use the SCS issue to strike a wedge in China-ASEAN relations. Third, the United States wants to use the SCS issue as an excuse to keep and strengthen its military presence in Asia-Pacific to preserve its hegemonic position in the region.21 China’s growing power and its efforts to modernize its military has only resulted in increased efforts on part of America to maintain its influence in the region. Some of its efforts include: In March 2004, the Balikatan (literally meaning shoulder to shoulder) exercise between the United States and the Philippines for the first time was held at a location where China and the Philippines contend for sovereignty. In November 1999, the Philippines announced a joint military exercise with the United States near the Spratlys.22 Thus, basically America’s behavior towards East Asian nations has been that of a friend to nations that are against China. However, considering China’s efforts for reassurance, America too has tried to approach China so that the two nations remain in pretty good terms. It is difficult for the two nations to completely cut out from each other, since both provide good business prospects, and China lives on being a cheap exporter of goods. Hence the two countries certainly cannot think of being at dagger’s end. America realizes that it needs to deal with China when it comes to economic issues. Besides in the current scenario, no nation can think of isolating itself from the other nation. Therefore, even though America is supportive of East Asian nations, which China might see as a provocative action, but the two also need to be on amicable terms with each other. Conclusion From the discussion we can conclude that: China is seen as a threat by other East Asian nations, and as a result of that they feel the need to step up their security which has to some extent resulted in arms proliferation China is a competitor for nations like America that think of eliminating the competition by coordinating with the neighbouring states of China China should not be blamed completely for the tense security environment of East Asia since it has taken steps to provide reassurance to the nations. China’s influence has only grown manifold after the recession, partly the reason for this is that America’s influence decreased in an equal amount. When a powerful nation declines then there is emergence of another powerful nation. Even though neither has America been written off completely nor has China grown enough to be accepted by world as the major power, but at least its influence in Asia cannot be ignored. Thinking that China’s military modernization alone is the reason for it being thought of as a threat is wrong. It is both China’s military superiority and its emerging economy that is a cause of concern for most East Asian countries. The concept of China being seen as a threat is pretty old, and this notion has actually nourished itself through people’s fear to become a fact. Hence, this fact should not be considered as the only fact. China might not be as big a threat as it is thought of as. However, the ‘theory’ has certainly led to tensing of the security environment of East Asia; this can be at least partly blamed on the military modernization by China. Even though China is not directly at fault, since every country has a right to secure itself, and a big country such as China could not have secured itself without modernizing its military; but the fear of their security being encroached upon by a superior China certainly led to arms proliferation by other East Asian nations. Further, it would be unfair if we don’t mention the reassurance measures taken by China. Since the mid-1980s, China has taken a number of steps which appear conducive to regional restraint in arms procurement. By the late 1980s, for example, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has reduced its manpower levels by some 25 per cent, from approximately 4.2 million in 1987 to approximately 3.2 million in 1990. In early 1996, reports indicated that an additional 15 per cent reduction -- another 500,000 troops --was under serious consideration.23 Similarly, china has also reduced its aggression when it comes to issues such as the South China issue. In spite of China’s focus on modernizing its military it has taken steps towards coordination with its neighbours. China’s own security policy has been of stepping up its military in terms of techniques and strategies but at the same time it has lowered its aggression trying to reach out to other nations. Even though the East Asian region, and the South East Asian region does not have a secure environment but that is not solely due to China or due to China’s military modernization. There are various internal factors that too have contributed towards this. China too does not feel secure since it too realizes that America and other major powers working in coordination with its neighbors would only be harmful for it, and hence its need to show off its power now and then. Even though the security environment is tensed up but the countries involved have been trying to approach each other amicably because they remain interlinked because of economic issues. In the decades to come, the countries might continue to modernize their military but at the same time will try their best to remain in good terms with each other. References C. Fred Bergsten et al., China’s Rise: Challenges and Opportunities, September 2008. David Shambaugh, China’s Military Modernization: Making Steady and Surprising Process, September, 2005. Jonathan D. Pollack and Richard H. Yang, In China’s Shadow: Regional perspectives on Chinese foreign policy and military development, 1998. Michael D. Swaine et al., Assessing The Threat: the Chinese Military and Taiwan’s security, 2007. Ronald O’Rourke, “China’s Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities- Background and issues for Congress”, CRS Report for Congress, November, 2005. Read More