Probabilistic Risk Analysis - Annotated Bibliography Example

ABSTRACT ASSIGNMENT Name of Student Name of Institution Name of Professor Date of Submission Table of Contents Table of Contents 2 Abstract 1. Looking Up and Looking Around (Jackall, 1998) Authority and advancements converge in the decision-making process that abounds in every corporation. For instance, the two ideals ‘consensus manager’ and ‘take charge guy’ are very vital in decision-making. Historically, managers have acted as the bridge between lower and middle levels in discipline, systems of control and evaluation that are imposed on them. According to Weber and Manheim, lower echelon managers see themselves as ‘little’ to high paid clerk hence leading to devoid of substantive critical evaluation. According to Robert Jackall, what is right in one’s man home may be wrong in another man’s home. The circumstance and environment that brings about decision-making paralysis and a lack of individual decision-making are vital in any organisation. Examples are illustrated to outline how a manager fears failure, reluctance in making decision and inability to make a practical decision at all hierarchical level. Usually, when a decision is made, there is a tendency of looking up (see managers) at superior outcomes and look around at the consensus of peer before a decision is made. Also, managers have the short-term focus, and they incorporate self-interest and personal reasons. It indicates that private interests and ambitions hinder good rational decision to be made. Jackal goes ahead describing how individuals end up changing their jobs to avoid being accountable for the decision they made before. In essence, when you outclass your mistakes through promotion or transfer, you will succeed no matter the organisation you attend. The accountability facilitates such at all levels. Without ever expressing it, the culture and the acceptance are criticised. When we offer a full focus on personal interests, the consequences are viable at the expense of long-term goals. However we try to run, in this case, a manager who makes poor choices and move, it is comparable to a plant as Jackal elaborates in the context. Nobody likes to loose, hence when the business collapses majority tries to find an alternative. Either they can look up (managers in this case) or others look around (their peers). Example In daily life, most people do look upon others for decision-making. It is observed almost in every firm as the lower (peers) look upon the upper (managers) for decision implementation. In real life experience, individually do believe that people of high ranks makes a better decision. For example, in an organisation, most employees are answerable to the manager. That does not mean that manager has the final say on everything. There is a need for every individual to participate in the decision as Jackal tries to illustrate. The need to look up or look around though common, a good decision is reached after consultation. Furthermore, when a clerk for an example of the company is to be chosen in decision making when he makes a poor decision, probably the company might collapse. For a healthy decision-making, it then follows that each particular person should participate actively. By doing so, it enhances the quality of the decision made as it is reached at after collective contribution. 2. Choices, Values, and Frames (Kahneman & Tversky, 1984) In every day’s life, people do make choices either knowingly or unknowingly. Decision-making just as other fields share subjects such as mathematics, economics, political science, sociology and psychology. Decision-making dresses both normative and descriptive questions where the tension between the normative and descriptive characterises the study of judgement and choice are made. Analysis of decision distinguishes risky and riskless choices. A riskless choice concerns where a good or service is exchanged for money or labour. In the evaluation of matter at hand, an article was presented in two sections; first, cognitive and psychophysical factor, then the second part was transaction and trade. An example of a risk includes the urge of carrying an umbrella and going or surrendering going to war. These two choices are made without knowing their consequences from that point forward. The psychophysical tactic to policymaking can be accessed in publishing of Bernoullin (1938) that explains why people averse to risks. According to Bernoulli, individuals do not assess forecasts by an anticipation of their financial product, but moderately by the hope of the personal values of the highlighted results. To ascertain risk aversion based on the outline, Bernoulli projected that utility is a bowl-shaped purpose of cash. Thus, it is routine in decision-analysis to illustrate the results of choices in regards to overall wealth. Framing the outcome of a risk, the prospects should be characterised. For instance, the gamble results should be put in terms of a gain or loss. More so, the psychophysics of chances is attained by totalling the utilities of the likely results. The version of probabilistic protection is essential in three-dimensional ways. First, it weakens the conventional description of coverage in terms of cave utility purpose. Second, representation of the forms of protection action. Finally, the acceptability of insurance. The concept of utility and worth are used mainly in two distinct fields, these are, knowledge value and choice value. Example In every part of life, the choice has to be made to solve the matter at hand. For example, a soldier going to war has to make a risk choice. He should go to duty, or loss the job is the two major decisions that should be done. When in war, the soldier could return either alive or otherwise. Besides, betting there are only two frame outcomes that one have to make a choice. The first issue is winning the lottery or losing the chance. In the act of making a wise decision, an evaluation is mandatory to win the bet and a soldier is coming from the war as a winner. In general, Choices, values and frames are vital in decision-making. Hence, for a wise decision to be evaluated, either one of this three or all of them should be applied. Likewise, when you were to cross a flooded river full of crocodiles, you have either to stay and wait for the water to lower or just risk and pass. 3. Beyond Discrete Biases: Functional and Dysfunctional Aspects of Judgmental Heuristics (Hogarth, 1981) Basing on the article, Hogarth goes ahead outlining the fundamental importance of judgement and how is essential in our daily life. Judgement is part of constant, interactive procedure that individuals use to adapt to the environment. Judgement having focused on distinct research that has led to underestimating the status of response in the current process. Therefore, incessant, discrete way is essential in evaluating judgmental heuristics. Many psychologists have recognised the crucial role of predictive judgement to enable easier understanding. Basing on recent studies, dysfunctional aspects of the judgement of heuristics, the situations under which such heuristics can be legal have not yet been stated. In simple words, judgement is a share of the unceasing course that individuals use to adapt to the situation; several researchers have given more consideration to discrete incidents. By doing so, it has led to an underestimating response in continuing course and unquestionable reception of numerous assumptions implied in separate, normative representations used to assess hypercritical routine. In a paper at hand (present), these issues are expounded in consideration of the distinction between discrete and incessant methods to the study of judgement and choice. It is then proposed that various biases should be identified in separate incidents results from heuristics that are functional in a conducive and more natural continuous environment. Thus, a discrete and continuous perspective is necessary for the evaluation of judgmental heuristics. Views are raised concerning both the outlined meaning of applicability of separate, normative philosophies of judgement and choice. In making decisions, judgement accuracy is very essential. Use of analogy can formalise the different degrees of judgemental accuracy required in discrete and continuous process. Finally, some normative implications are derived from the importance of feedback in the ongoing process. This has helped in aspects of judgmental heuristics. Judgement being applicable in our daily experiences is essential as illustrated by Hogarth. Example In every lifetime of a human being, it reaches a point where there is need to come up with judgement. It can be either at a personal level or a group stage, in whatever case. For instance, man and rat are both extremely imprudent in an investigational room. On the other hand, psychology has waged slight attention to the thing they accomplish in their usual habitats. For example, a man drives a car, plays complicated sports and establishes humanity while a rat, is a troublesome cunning in the kitchen. For example, for one to get valid feedback, there must be a continuous flow of information. Let us take the case of a hospital, a doctor will judge the kind of diseases a patient is having. By doing so, the pharmacist will offer medicines (tablets, syrup). When the pharmacist misses judges the information to the doctor, probably wrong medicine will be administered to a patient. 4. Our Proposed Perspective (Liston, 1984) To analyse our proposed perspectives, two questions are imperative to put into consideration. What are we viewing? Besides, what are we looking at? In general form, a system is made up of; nature, man, society, and technology, singly or in various combinations. If we narrow to our primary concerns, social, technological systems issues must be dealt on with the technical approach, social and human facets surrounding and interacting with it. Technology usually do change the way of life of people either positively or negatively, thus gears them towards making decisions. Majorly, the relationship between social technological is simplified into few areas. Foremost is the technology that is taken to be an accurate technology, for instance, the fluoridation of water. Second, physical environment setting that recognises the land, sea, air, and space with all its inanimate and living components. Thirdly, sociotechnical environments where technical and organisation elements intermingle. Fourth, a technological environment that affects and is affected by the individual. This also takes into consideration the organisational actors that include the family, clan, village, state, club, union, and company. Furthermore, there are different agents that are majorly made up of a crowd. Political action is as well included, which is the element representing the well-organised interplay between organisations and individuals. Finally, decision element represents the direct outcome of the political activity. When we look at the perspective of how this issue is viewed, there are several ways. They include the technical point of view that system the perspective either formal or informal the personal opinion seen individuals eye and brain integration perspectives for ultimate decision-making and focuses thoughts. Our different perspectives are present limits of knowledge as a reflected in the state of the art of science and technology. The perspectives analysed above has not relied solely on man’s creation of science and technology. Example For a considerable flow of information, there is need of conductive communication system. The case will help diverse technological perspectives that are essential to any particular firm. Here are some of the humanistic aspects that are experienced in our daily lives. Family therapy allows parents to talk about their relationships with one another to strengthen and encourage their relationships. The case is more rampant when a family is going through difficult times such as divorce or drug abuse. Humanistic perspective helps gestalt therapy that encourages an individual not to allow past affecting the present rather than concentrating on the present. For example, when you lost parents two years ago, you have to keep on with life and convincing one’s mind that it passed. If we take in the account of experiences, we tend to lose our personal perspective that can either drain so or us. For a decision to be made, all dimensional facts should be reached. 5. A Reappraisal of Probabilistic Risk Analysis (Whittaker, 1991). Basing on the article, Whittaker illustrates a preliminary way of handling a risk by analyzation. He goes ahead to explain the meaning of a probabilistic risk analysis. According to his article, probabilistic risk analysis is an orderly and inclusive method to assess risks with engineered technical entity. Probabilistic peril analysis has been familiarised in public arguments to persuade individuals about threats posed by nuclear power plant. The significant risk that is posed includes dangerous waste dumping, toxic gas channels. The key target of this investigation is intended as a rationale, objectives and scientific way of talking regarding public security concern. According to recent studies, fault trees are an imperfect method of defining the system; and that the data used are incorrect or inaccurate. A liability tree is an excellent demonstration of the failure consequences chain that leads to an undesired occasion. In most cases, a lot of engineering examination is directed at averting failure. For example, bridges and building are constructed to stay for a longer period but not collapsing. Thus, the liability tree is an unusual tool for conniving complicated systems. Because liability tree analysis was first engineered in U.S, its intention was computing the security of systems. The method of evaluating the safety effect of change, documentary evidence that complete safety analysis and diagnostic technique to locate and identify particular failure is vital. Kendal and Moglewer then noted that to be beneficial in a prognostic method, fault trees must be able to forecast real fortunes. To assess possibilities of threats, scenarios that are not easily summarised into the probabilistic threat inquiry logic should be put into considerations. In simple words, complex situations, extensive data gaining that convoys probabilistic risk investigation has hidden the fact that choices on public safety are radical, not scientific or financial. Liberal Masters have tried to relocate responsibilities to economists and scientists. Examples Taking in an example, a recent analysis from most reports clears that a single event, tsunami, results in a several number of failures that set the stage for the accident. Of the failures caused include, loss of offsite electrical power to the reactor complex, damage of oil tanks and auxiliary fuel for diesel generators, damage to the inlets that brings about cooling water from the ocean. Taking another example, you left your car yesterday night only to realise that the following day the engine is not starting. The possibilities are that the fact that you were tired, you left the door open or you didn’t realise that the inner light persisted to illuminate. It implies that the battery was frail, a disorder not easily noticed in a well-tuned car in the travelling. This started with being tired that led to a chain of unavoidable proceedings that resulted in the exhausted battery and a system botch. These account for our probabilistic analysis. Read More