Hazards and Risk Management - Example

Hazards and Risk Management Critical Review of the National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies 1. Introduction The text in this review is the National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies in the United Kingdom that is authored and distributed by the Cabinet Office. The task involve in this critical review primarily include reading and understanding the document and summarising the most important points being presented by the author. It is followed by critical analysis and interpretation of data, and examination of arguments presented by the author regarding the validity and completeness of data used to support its findings. In particular, this critical review discusses the strength and weakness of this document, its notable features, structure, and capacity to relate important information to the reader. 2. Summary of the Text The text is the National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies in the United Kingdom. It is a reference document describing Civil Emergency as stated in the Civil Contingencies Act, risk and risk assessment, local and national preparedness for civil emergencies1. The National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies is a reference document for individuals and organizations interested in making preparation in case damaging events occur in the United Kingdom in the next five years2. The purpose is to provide updated information regarding the different types of civil emergency that are likely to occur and will cause serious damage to human life such as death, illness or injury, homelessness, disruption of services, food supply, water, energy, and others3 The title alone suggests that it is a register or a listing of civil emergencies of national concern. The title also suggests that it is a document being updated in a certain point in time as indicated by “2012 Edition”. Since it is from the Cabinet Office, the title reminds readers that it is a credible list of civil emergencies compiled by the UK government4. The text is structured in an easy to read and understandable manner because it is intended to everyone living in the United Kingdom. For instance, Chapter 1 or the introduction explains how reader should use this document. It defines civil emergency and explain how these civil emergencies were identified. Aside from explaining how this document is related with the Civil Contingencies Act 2004, it also made clear the likelihood of these civil emergencies from occurring and the extent of damage they will bring5. The National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies is actually a compilation of identified civil emergencies, their likelihood and impact, and local and national preparations that can be made in order to avoid or reduce its impact. The main findings of this document points to emergencies that still threatens the United Kingdom despite improvement in national security. For instance, Pandemic Influenza is on the top of the list because influenza pandemics occur thrice since 1918 and in 2009, the same pandemic occurs but this time it is an H1N1 influenza, which is more severe than the others are. For the government, the 2009 H1N1 pandemic is not the last because it does not change the risk of another pandemic occurring such as H5N1 or avian flu, which is similarly severe6. Another is coastal flooding that already occurred twice in 1953 and 2007. Although less vulnerable due to improvement in flood control system, the probability of a storm surge occurring is high and in the future may breach flood defences causing damage that is more serious to the community. As expected, terrorist attack is included as such, as mass impact terrorist events according to the Cabinet Office cannot be ruled out at this time7. Some key arguments presented in this document include how these civil emergencies are identified and likelihood of their occurrence in the next five years. The author explains that likelihood of these civil emergencies were computed using different methods such as historical analysis and numeric modelling. However, terrorism is treated differently as occurrence of such event is dependent on willingness of individuals and assessment of their capability (see discussion in the next section). Risk matrices and “worst-case” scenarios were also used to determine the likelihood of occurrence and extent of impact of identified civil emergencies8. 3. Critique of the National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies 2012 Edition Generally, the National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies contains a list of likely civil emergencies that may confronted by the United Kingdom in the next five years. These include explanation on the likelihood of such event to occur and the impact of these events on property and well-being. The register is also supported by a number of preparations the can be made and planning method (risk assessment) that can be employed by interested individuals and organizations9. However, although identified civil emergencies are somewhat realistic, the relative plausibility of these civil emergencies occurring in the next five years as shown in the risk matrix below is somewhat questionable. For instance, it is not clear how catastrophic terrorist attack landed in medium low occurrence while attack on transport system is considered relatively high. Is this arrangement based on experience or intelligence suggesting that terrorist will be interested in destroying the UK transport system in the next five years? Figure 1- Risk Matrix (Cabinet Office, 2012, p.8) According to Redmill & Anderson (2005)10, risk matrix is very helpful in managing individual risk but it generates erroneous results when it used beyond its limitations (p.144). For instance, in risk matrix, the likelihood and impact of risk (as shown above) are ranked from high to low but decisions whether they the right ranking, likely to occur, and with greater impact will come from decision-makers11. In practice, these decision makers are humans and may be affected by the complexity of the issue and tendencies to simplify the process in order to reach a decision. Note that the impact score for catastrophic terrorist attacks is logically correct but deciding that its probability is medium low is somewhat flawed as 9/11 occurs unexpectedly when the United States was very confident that nobody will attack their mainland12. Another issue seen in this risk register is the exclusion of around 40 types of scenario simply because they did not comply with the definition provided in the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 that says “an event or situation which threatens serious damage to human welfare in a place in the United Kingdom”13. Note that “serious damage” here means death, illness or injury, homelessness, damage to property, and various disruptions in supply and services14. These 40 excluded scenarios therefore are assumed unlikely and harmless as it will not result to any serious damage or occur in the next five years. However, the reason why they will be kept under review and still assumed to occur in the future is not clear15. According to Wood & Alsharhan (2003)16, dealing effectively with potential hazards in scenario building requires identification of key drivers and uncertainties related to hazards but scenario-driven approach often result to cascaded uncertainties where insight is lost. For instance, there are tendencies to integrate socio-economic scenarios and climate change scenarios up to the point that regional and local vulnerability is no longer clear (p.41). Moreover, risk according to Cade (1999)17 can never be confined in a particular manner, as aside from reviewing current economic and political trends, decision makers must consider the extreme and the more likely scenarios (p.176). Despite doubts on the veracity of the risk matrix used and exclusion of other scenarios, the National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies has a number of positive and beneficial points. For instance, if the purpose is indeed to enable awareness and preparation then it can be considered an essential document that all residents of the United Kingdom must read. In Chapter 1 for instance, the document, provide the basic information required for planning for emergencies such as the likelihood, relative impact, and group of risk identified in the country. According to the author, the information can provide people with knowledge of the high risks areas and in Chapter 3, readers can read the details civil emergencies that can occur in the local and national level. In practice, reading this document is very helpful in the sense that readers can readily identify and visualise the risk particularly on how it will affect them in the future18. According to Craighead (2009)19, promoting awareness is an essential part of emergency management as education often leads to sound decisions and achieving maximum safety during emergencies (p.575) In relation to risk awareness and preparation, inclusion of very informative risk descriptions is one positive quality of this document. Dividing natural hazards into different category makes understanding easier particularly when risk descriptions are detailed. For instance, aside from historical facts about flooding in England, description of flooding risk include the sources of flooding and information regarding government flood control programmes and agencies responsible for implementing these programmes. Rolf Von Roessing20 suggest that an emergency response plan should include a higher level of details not only because it is a minimum requirement but increase the level of people’s awareness about initiatives and the proper steps in dealing with emergencies (p.253). For instance, it may best to include arrangements for coordinating flood responses, provisions of resources that may be need at both regional and local level, and agencies responsible for flood forecasting and information to the media21. Moreover, creating a culture of preparedness not only include planning but promoting awareness to every person in the community and empowering those that are responsible with sufficient knowledge22. 4. Conclusion In conclusion, the National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies is a very informative resource for individuals and organizations wishing to be prepared in all types of civil emergencies that are likely to occur in the United Kingdom in the next five years. Although there are some doubts on the veracity of the method used and judgement made on the probability and extent of impact of each civil emergency, the document is in general helpful and beneficial to the people of the United Kingdom. The way the document was structured suggest that it is intended for different types of readers particularly those that are not aware of civil emergency as defined in the Civil Contingencies Act 2004, unfamiliar with risk assessment, and interested in the details of potential hazards that may be encountered in the near future. Providing an overview of the main types of civil emergency, high priority risks, newer risks, and risk matrix help readers better understand the situation particularly when this general idea about risk and risk management is supported by detailed risk descriptions with historical facts and scientific justifications. Moreover, detailed knowledge of risk and required preparedness are important aspects of emergency management as they often result to increased level of awareness and achievement of maximum safety, which the document successfully achieved. However, although it has a number of notable features, there is always room for improvement. It may best for the author to be specific in everything particularly when involves decisions that will greatly affect the outcome of the risk assessment. This critical review found the risk matrix inconsistent because there are no facts supporting the assumption that a catastrophic terrorist attack is medium low risk in the next five years. For instance, if there is indeed some measures in place to prevent such civil emergency from occurring then it will be very helpful to mentioned them in the document. Another recommendation is the detailing how decision-makers decide which emergency is likely or not as the document failed to justify the exclusion of 40 scenarios adequately which the author openly admit are also likely to happen in the future. Work Cited List Read More