The Future of Australia - Example

The Future of Australia Australia's future is certainly being shaped by its dealings with an ageing population and its relations with other countries, especially those in the rest of the Asia-Pacific region. Being a country populated by people of European descent, Australia’s place in the Asia-Pacific region has become a source of curiosity for its neighbours, as well as one of confusion and uncertainty for its people. (Easterlin, 1991) This has inspired debate in recent years on various events and trends, such as the country’s military and political interventions in Iraq and several of the Asia-Pacific countries. Authorities in the country have claimed their actions in other countries have been attempts to respond to the threat of regional terrorism. In addition, the actions are meant to improve new immigration, refugee, and citizenship policies, and tame the proliferation of bilateral free trade agreements. In studying Australia’s recent actions in regional and international arenas, social scientists have attempted to understand how Australians perceive their role in the region; how people and organisations in the region perceive Australia; and whether these perceptions are changing. (Nguyen, 2007) There has been some useful research on the former, including the 2005 and 2006 Lowy Institute polls (Cook, 2005). Unfortunately, little has been done to explore how Australia’s regional neighbours perceive actions taken by the country’s leaders in the recent past. Moreover, recent dramatic economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region -- the fastest growing region in the world -- has given rise to both scholarly and policy-oriented debate about the most appropriate organisational form within which any dialogue over the natural economic policy coordination in the region might take place. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum (APEC) has evolved as the system used by the region to express regional opinions. However, APEC's increasing international profile does not pass uncontested. Indeed, some states, especially Malaysia, prefer 'Asian' over 'Pacific' forms of regional economic dialogue. In other words, Malaysia prefers to use the East Asian Economic Caucus (EAEC) instead of APEC. Keen observers have also concluded that enhanced economic dialogue in the Asia-Pacific region cannot be understood in rationalistic, utility-maximizing terms alone. This has been done through questions on politics, culture, and identity -- all of which are becoming extremely important. Though progress is being made on certain fronts, concrete outcomes could take some time to reach. Population Ageing Australia demographics show a relatively young population compared to other developed nations. For instance, the 1996 median average age was 34, and just 12 percent of the population was aged 65 and over. Further, the population is young compared with the population of most other OECD countries. In addition, the country’s net immigration in the post-1945 period has contributed to the country’s youthful population. However, immigrants grow old in the long term and leave their young descendants. Currently, Australia has a population growth rate just over 1 percent per year; it is generally expected to decline slowly for the next 40-50 years to around half this level. Before the mid-21st century, Australia's population is likely to be distributed more evenly among the expanding age strata. The number and percentage of centenarians in the population will increase, as they will be in other national populations. (Australian Joint Standing Committee, 2008) Such a reduction of the gap between age strata is causing a decline in population ageing. In this new situation, it is hoped that most people will live from birth to an advanced old age in an active state of good health. As our forebears coped with population ageing in their times, with far fewer resources and less advanced technology than is now available, there is no reason to believe that we and our descendants shall be unable to cope with population ageing in the coming decades. Ageing and Economics The impact of ageing on public policy is being closely studied across the globe. It has been established that Australian labor participation rates and the greater demand for public spending on health and aged care caused by an ageing society will result in a steadily increasing fiscal gap. The economic costs and burdens of this demographic change legitimize alarmists’ concerns with population ageing. Central to the concerns about the ageing population has been none other than the cost of government expenditures on pension and health services. It is easy to see an additional concern to lobby government to compel the mass of employed people to pay a sizeable proportion of their income into pension funds operated by the private sector. This would benefit retirees with high quality services and better returns, and the sector will be further able to expand its product offerings. Indeed, pressure appears to be growing to compel people to pay private sector companies to fund part of the coverage of medical treatment. International organisations such as World Bank, IMF, and OECD have been at the forefront of promoting of private sector participation; this would help in averting a possible future crisis in the country’s pension system. This promotion of special interests is in line with a pro-market ideology and opposition to entitlement programs in the country. Australia's Place in the Region The Australian’s letters page that dates back to 1964 illustrates the long history of the debate regarding Australia’s role in greater Asia. There is also the question that Australia’s regional neighbors ponder, as former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir famously said before his retirement, that Australia must decide between Europe, America, and Asia. (The Australian 2005) As the views of the political leaders in Asia and the Pacific are well reported in Australia, the purpose of this question was to add another dimension to the debate by asking regional NGOs about Australia’s place and its national characteristics. Asked about the region people thought Australia is closest to, 59% of respondents considered Europe or North America. Surprisingly, over 37% of the respondents thought Australia to be ‘culturally closest to’ either Asia or the Pacific. (Nguyen, et al. 2007) While the reason for this mentality is beyond the scope of this report, responses to open-ended questions on future relations between Australia and their respective countries result in conflicting suggestions: increased immigration from Asia, New Zealand and the South Pacific is an important viewpoint that the region uses to understand Australia. However, increased immigration from the region, specifically Asia, New Zealand, and the South Pacific, has resulted in Australia’s cultural identity as seen by its neighbours to be no longer as clear cut as it has been in the past. In the same study, Asia Pacific NGOs have consistently registered their displeasure with Australia’s close alliance with the US. On the question of whether the relationship with America is positive for their region, many (42%) NGOs disagreed with the statement; only (18%) agreed that the relationship was beneficial to the region. Overall, Asia registered the greatest level of disagreement (48%) compared to 32% for the Pacific, (Nguyen, 2007) with the statement that the relationship was beneficial for the region. Comparing the above response to the same statement regarding mainland China, there is a higher level of agreement that a close relationship between Australia and China is positive for their region; 44% of respondents agreed, whereas 21% disagreed with the statement. Asia-Pacific NGOs appear little bothered by China’s growing economic and military influence in the region. Although they consider Australia’s cultural heritage closer to Europe or America, they would rather see Australia concentrate on Asian ties rather than sticking with the US. (Asia Foundation Surveys, 2008) Frequency of Contact with Australia Alison Broinowski affirms that Australian government officials promote not its national image in Asia but the national interest. (Broinowski et. al. 1997) This is especially done in Europe and North American capitals. Indeed, Broinowski’s observation appears to have been confirmed by the survey’s responses: NGOs in Asia do not get information about Australia directly from Australian government officials. The results show that this is also true for Pacific NGOs. In fact, a question on the frequency of meetings between NGOs and the Government reveals similar results. Sixty-one percent of NGOs, mostly from Asia, have not met any Australian officials in the past 12 months. In addition, none of the Asian NGOs responded as having frequent face-to-face meetings with Australian Government officials, while only one NGO from the Pacific said it did. However, most NGOs have had irregular meetings with officials over the past year, and the figure is higher at 52% for Pacific NGOs compared to only 18% for Asian NGOs. (Broinowski et. al. 1997) The Australian Government had a busy year in 2006; engagements with the Asia-Pacific region, crisis in the Pacific region, and a delicate relationship with Indonesia. However, former Prime Minister John Howard managed to bring all these issues well under control. Indeed, because of the unexpected responses of countries like Vietnam, claiming that Australia is part and parcel of the region’s affairs, Australia has to be deeply involved with all aspects of them. But to what extent does the region share Howard’s assessment of the relationship? According to this study of regional NGO opinions, there is significant goodwill in the region towards Australia. The bad news is that visible links between Australia’s good image and its foreign policies do not exist. Many respondents said their ‘mostly positive’ feelings about Australia have not changed in the past year. However, many others expressed that their feelings had changed; this was represented by nearly twice as many who said they have changed for the worse. As if to put Australia on notice, NGOs in the Pacific, ironically the group with the most contact with Australians, have become even more dissatisfied about the country over the past year compared to Asian organizations. In addition, Asian and Pacific respondents expressed little, if any, similarities with the Government’s top domestic and foreign policy priorities. For instance, their concern for the global environment, which is shared by the Australian public according to the Lowy Institute poll, shows that the Australian authorities are also lagging behind regional opinion on this issue. Regarding the taking charge of stopping criminal activities, that is listed among the least important foreign policy goals for Asia and the Pacific. (Nguyen, 2006) This contrasts with the government’s concerns over policy priorities, which have been illustrated by the foreign and trade ministers’ comments that national security threats from terrorism activities, smuggling of people, and economic reforms should form Australia’s top priorities. The general feeling in the region suggests that Australia needs to improve its image through better integration into regional issues. To achieve that goal, Australian authorities have to reduce their focus on European and North American ties and instead concentrate on increasing their collaboration with Asian and Pacific neighbours. Only then will those neighbours’ perceptions about Australia become more positive. Any failure to change the current trend could lead to a deterioration of current relations, which would affect Australia’s regional cohesion. Studies included in this report suggest that Australia’s pragmatic bilateral approach to regional diplomacy is not enough; more needs to be done. (Nguyen, 2006) The studies also show that regional concerns are critical, and should be addressed as soon as possible. While Australia wrestles with immigration issues, contact levels with Asian and Pacific civil society has been minimal. In order to improve Australia’s regional image, authorities should work on enhancing ties with the ASEAN nations, and increase participation in Pacific events. (Nguyen 2006) References Asia Foundation Surveys. (2008) [Internet] Available at: Australian Foreign Affairs Defence and Trade Committee. (2004) Australia’s Relationship with Indonesia. Cook, I. (2005) Australians Speak: Public opinion and foreign policy. Lowy Institute, 2006. Cook, I. (2005) Australia, Indonesia and the World: Public opinion and foreign policy. Lowy Institute, 2006. Borowski, A., Encel, S. and Ozanne, E. (1997) Ageing and social policy in Australia. Melbourne, Cambridge University Press. Easterlin, R. A. (1991) "Impact of population change in advanced countries," Journal of Gerontology, vol. 46, pp S299 – S309. The Australian, 6 August 2005, ‘The Day Foreign Policy Won Asia’, The Australian Online. Available at: Read More