Economic History and Development of Dubai - Research Paper Example

Dubai’s financial Crisis Table of Contents Economic History and Development of Dubai  The city of Dubai, the largest city in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) developed a reputation for prosperity from trade as far back as the early twentieth century. Processing a natural harbor and a merchant community has compensated for its general lack of natural resources. With limited natural resources to pursue other forms of livelihood, commerce became the most significant source of income for the Sheikhdom (Al-Sayegh (Jan., 1998),). Accordingly, Dubai’s port has developed into the most important trading point in the entire gulf region. Trade and traders have always been in the centre of the development of Dubai. Accordingly, the merchants throughout Dubai's history have played an important role in restructuring the economy and in the government decision-making process. As the key drivers of growth, they used their influence to drive through early economic and political reforms. Thus, they were a significant factor in Dubai's development in the pre-oil era (Al-Sayegh (Jan., 1998),).   During the period of 1900-29, Dubai faced two main developments. Firstly the growth of the Pearl trade, and secondly, in 1903 Dubai began to emerge as the main port of the Trucial Coast (Al-Sayegh (Jan., 1998),). During this period, Dubai became a major economic powerhouse in the region. However, socio-economic progress slowed with the decline of the pearl industry in 1929. The next decade witnessed two major economic changes. Firstly, the economic adjustment to the collapse of the traditional pearl trade due to the great depression. Secondly, the emergence of alternative economic sources such as air travel and oil concessions. These changes would later result the Dubai reform Movement of 1938.   The period of 1939-1990, marked various socio-political reforms along with economic adjustment programs (Al-Sayegh (Jan., 1998),). Accordingly, Dubai took the first steps towards a liberal economic system. For example, as a result for an increase in the demand for public services developed during 1950 to 1970, the private sector provided a majority of the community services. This is a significant in context of the global economic mood of the era.   During the 1970s, Oil was discovered and the resulting wealth was used to develop the infrastructure. This in turn led to large-scale development in the construction industry. Dubai also developed a very business friendly tax and customs duties regime, which served to further economic growth. A testament to this fact is that up until 1990s and beyond, the customs duties have never exceeded 2 per cent (Al-Sayegh (Jan., 1998),). Dubai also developed the Jabal Ali Free Zone. Recently it has added more free trade zones, such as Dubai Technology & Media Free Zone, which was hailed by the IMF as one of the best internet related business free trade zones.   After 1973, Dubai decided to begin a program of industrialization. Accordingly, a modern industrial centre was developed at Jabal Ali, giving Dubai new importance. In the early 1980s until the mid-1990s, trade with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and other Gulf countries grew and diversified (Al-Sayegh (Jan., 1998),). This was partly a direct consequence of the diversification and development projects of the mid 1980's. Thus, at a time when other governments in the Gulf were increasing their overseas investments in the West, Dubai decided the best solution was to contradict the current trend and build commitment to invest in their own domestic infrastructure. Therefore, the foundation was set to help Dubai support and enhance its existing re-export-oriented commercial sector while also helping the diversification away from oil in the future (The 2008–2009 Global Financial Fallout: Shanghai and Dubai as Emerging Financial Powerhouses? 2009). Thus, Dubai managed to develop into financial and commercial powerhouse of the region based on pro trade regulations.  Dubai's expansion was also the result of an efficient real-estate market. Land laws allow local families own the land on which their houses stand. Beyond the developed areas of the city, all land and filled sites belong to the ruler who can and does sell his rights. Furthermore, members of local tribes are entitled to obtain about 1,000 square meters of desert land free from the ruler who can then disperse the land for the use of construction (Melamid (Jul., 1989),).  In the 21st century, the world saw the establishment of the Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC). The DIFC was established in September 2004 and almost immediately rose to challenge the established financial centers of the world (London and New York).  One of the significant features of the DIFC is that it has its own legal and regulatory system, which has been built upon the United Kingdom’s common law system (The 2008–2009 Global Financial Fallout: Shanghai and Dubai as Emerging Financial Powerhouses? 2009). This was labeled by the IMF as a “geographic and legal jurisdiction within the emirate of Dubai”. Furthermore, the constitution of the UAE was amended in 2004 to allow a “financial free zone” to be established. Thus, other than criminal law, all the activities of the DIFC are governed under the United Kingdom common law system. The Dubai Financial Services Authority undertook the regulatory role of the DIFC while the DIFC authority took responsibility for economic planning and development. A testament to Dubai’s relatively competitive regulatory system is its corporate tax, which is the third lowest in the world at a very low 14.4%, easily rivaling many competitors (The 2008–2009 Global Financial Fallout: Shanghai and Dubai as Emerging Financial Powerhouses? 2009).   The DIFC focuses on six primary services: banking, capital markets, asset management, Islamic finance, reinsurance, and back office operations. Soon after the Dubai International Financial Exchange (DIFX) became officially operational in September 2005, the response was quick and significant. Trading volumes increased tremendously, increasing from U.S. $7.9 billion in 2000 to U.S to $100.69 billion in 2006. To diversify financial products, DIFC began to list equities derivatives in November 2008 to enhance liquidity and to attract more investors. DIFX also considers a “‘fast track’ process for U.S. companies to have a secondary listing in Dubai”. The DFIC has also been to quick embrace new technology like the Securities Settlement System, which has allowed Dubai has secured its role to provide a safe and stable financial market in the Gulf region, and actively compete against other global financial centers (The 2008–2009 Global Financial Fallout: Shanghai and Dubai as Emerging Financial Powerhouses? 2009). The Financial Crisis of 2008 Global market confidence shattered because of a chain of huge financial collapses in 2008–2009. This triggered a global credit crunch, accompanied by debt default and bankruptcies of many international financial institutions, which in turn affected every other segment of the global economy. Upon evaluation of the financial crisis, the main causes can be narrowed down to three significant factors; an expansionary monetary policy, flawed financial innovations, and the collapse of trading (Schwartz (Winter 2009)).   The disruption of credit flows can be traced to the asset price bubble of the housing price boom. An asset boom is created by an expansive monetary policy that lowers interest rates and encourages borrowing beyond reasonable expectations or boundaries in order to acquire the asset. However, the Federal Reserve of the US was too slow to react and tighten the monetary policy, postponing the tightening until June 2004 and then ending the monthly 25 basis point increase in August 2006. In retrospect, the rate increases in 2004 were too little and ended too soon (Schwartz (Winter 2009)). It was this monetary policy setting that led to the housing price boom. While the US government played a role in stimulating demand for houses by encouraging home ownership. By 2005, Fannie and Freddie had an explicit target to provide 52 percent of their mortgage financing those with incomes below the median income in their area. Furthermore, the percentage of "special affordable loans" for borrowers with less than 60% of their area's income increase from 12 percent in 1996 to 28 percent in 2008. Fannie and Freddie also purchased hundreds of billions of dollars worth of subprime securities for their own portfolios to raise money to meet their housing goals. Thus, Fannie and Freddie were important contributors to the demand for subprime securities (Schwartz (Winter 2009)).     Flawed financial instruments, which influenced the emergence of the credit crisis, include instruments such as securitization, derivatives, and auction-rate securities. The main flaws of these instruments registered too slowly with the markets. The basic flaw in each of them was the difficulty of determining their price. Securitization substituted the “originate to distribute securities” model of mortgage lending in lieu of the traditional “originate to hold mortgages” model. Further banking innovations such as the practices of the derivatives industry, made mortgage lending problems worse by shifting the risk from one party to another in a very complex manner (Schwartz (Winter 2009)). They became complex to a point where neither the designer nor the buyer of these instruments understood the risks they imposed. The securitization of mortgage loans spread from the mortgage industry to commercial paper issuance, student loans, credit card receivables, and other loan categories. The designs of mortgage-backed securities were based on the collateral of a pool of mortgages, and it was assumed that the pool would give the securities value. However, the pool was an assortment of mortgages of varying quality and there were no proper guide or set of protocols to determine the price of the pool. Rating agencies had no formula for this task either, and they assigned ratings to complex securities as if they were ordinary corporate bonds and without examining the individual mortgages in the pool. Therefore, the ratings tended to overstate the value of the securities (Schwartz (Winter 2009)).    The third factor leading to the emergence of the credit crisis was the collapse of the market for some financial instruments. One in particular, was the auction rate security, which refers to a long-term instrument for which the interest rate is re-set periodically at auctions. It was introduced in 1984 as an alternative to long-term debt for borrowers who need long-term funding; but also serves as a short-term security. When an auction fails, the result is fewer bidders relative to the number of securities to be sold. When this happens, the securities are priced at a penalty rate and the investor is unable to redeem his money while the issuer has to pay a higher rate to borrow. Failed auctions were rare before the credit market crisis because banks that conducted the auctions would inject their own capital to prevent an auction failure. In 2007, these banks became less willing to commit their own money to keep auctions from failing because of the credit and mortgage losses they had experienced. As a result, the rate on borrowing costs rose sharply after failed auctions and the market fell into chaos. It was during the market collapse that the flaw in the design of this instrument was revealed. As it were, a funding instrument that appears long-term to the borrower but short-term to the lender is an illusion. A funding instrument that is long-term for one party must be long-term for the counterparty (Schwartz (Winter 2009)). Post crisis status of Dubai Dubai Inc. dominates Dubai’s economy, this is a composition of commercial corporations, financial institutions, and investment arms owned directly the ruling family. These companies are held under three major holding companies (Dubai Holding, Dubai World, and the Investment Corporation of Dubai). Every holding company also includes several property developers and is involved in assorted property ventures in Dubai and around the world (May Khamis 2010). In an effort to fund a major push in commercial and residential property, Dubai Inc. borrowed extensively during 2004–08, resulting in a real estate bubble. Furthermore, the U.A.E. banks issued an unprecedented amount of credit, accounting for close to $100 billion of credit in excess of the historical trend. Thus, the financial crisis had a very severe effect on Dubai because Dubai had fully integrated itself into the international financial system. Dubai's problems became significant when its real estate bubble burst in 2008. This along with the shutdown of the credit and capital markets began to put pressure on the city's highly leveraged real estate enterprises. Up until November 25 2009, Dubai had been able to roll over market debt with the financial support from the central bank.   However, on November 25, 2009 Dubai was forced to issue a debt standstill on two property subsidiaries (Nakheel and Limitless) until May 2010. Almost immediately, the value of the Nakheel fell to 50 cents from 111 on November 23. Additionally, rating agencies downgraded Dubai government-related entities (GREs) to a non-investment grade. (May Khamis 2010). A full-scale restructuring of Dubai’s financial sector could involve operational restructuring, asset sales, debt relief, or equity injections. In the short-term, however, the government of Abu Dhabi provided Dubai with a bailout package on December 14. The loan was aimed at paying off some of Dubai World’s debt obligations. These obligations include approximately $4.2 billion of matured Islamic bonds, which were distributed by its real-estate subsidiary Nakheel. While the intervention has created a temporary relief for global financial markets, until Dubai draws up a solid restructuring plan, investors will remain sceptical. (Senhadj 2010). Regression analysis Regression analysis refers to a statistical tool used to investigate the relationship between variables (Sykes n.d.)Once the relevant data has been gathered, a regression analysis is used to estimate the quantitative effect of the independent variables on the dependent variables. This relationship can then be used to test the confidence that the relationship observed is in line with the relationship estimated (Sykes n.d.)   When analyzing a regression model, to begin with one should formulate a hypothesis. Accordingly, one should create a null hypothesis and an alternate hypothesis. A null hypothesis (H0) would represent a baseline or initial statement (Sykes n.d.). An alternate Hypothesis (H1) would represent a relatively contradictory position to that of the null hypothesis. Thus, if the null hypothesis state there is a relationship between two variables, then an alternate hypothesis would state that there is no relationship between the two variables. Once the null and alternative hypothesizes have been formulated, one can use a confidence interval to determine the validity of the null and alternative hypothesizes. Accordingly, if the null hypothesis H0 falls in the critical region of a particular significance level (Dependent on the confidence interval) then it will be rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis H1. If the null hypothesis H0 does not fall in the critical region then it is will not be rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis H1. Furthermore, since a regression table represents a model of linear relationships, the sample co-relation co-efficient (r) will determine the nature of the relationship as follows.   R tends to 0 : uncorrelated R tends to 1 : Stronger positive co-relation R tends to 0 : Stronger negative co-relation  Simple Regression Simple linear relationship can be explained as follows, (Sykes n.d.)   I = α + βE + ε I : The dependent variable E : The independent variable α : A constant factor/term and the intercept of the curve β : The co-efficient of the variable "E", the slope of the curve ε : Random error term/white noise     The parameters α and β, along with the random error term "ε" are unobservable. Thus, regression analysis is used to estimate the two parameters based on the data available and the assumptions about the random error term (Sykes n.d.).   If represented in a scatter diagram a regression analysis would seeks to establish a line of best fit where the sum of the squares estimated errors is at a minimum (SSE). The estimate of this line would provide an estimate for α and the slope of the line would provide an estimate for β.   Multiple Regression   Multiple regression allows other factors to be brought into the regression analysis and the factors can be estimated individually. Multiple regression can be illustrated as follows (Sykes n.d.): I = α + βE + γX + ε Hence, we introduce another factor γ, in our regression analysis. Examples of regression analysis on scatter diagrams In the scatter diagram illustrated above, one can see that there is a relatively strong positive relationship between the changes in housing investment and the sum of difference between IRS and Taylor. However, the scatter diagrams above illustrate a weaker yet positive relationship. It can be seen that that the diagrams display varying degrees of strength and different levels of positive co-relation. Illustration of a regression analysis table (hypothetical application)   Value/co-efficient Standard Error t-value P-value Intercept -28.8768 19.7354 -1.463 0.1554 Oil price 0.3277 4.4598 0.0735 0.942 Real-estate rates 3.9118 1.2484 3.1334 0.0042 credit 19.6705 8.6291 2.2796 0.0311 R2 =0.6518 As shown above, a regression analysis table using hypothetical data has been used to demonstrate the usefulness of the regression analysis with regards to identifying the relationship between various factors. To begin with, it can be seen that the R2 value is more than 60, thus we can conclude that this model is useful. Assume one identifies there factors with relation to the GDP growth of Dubai and those three factors are the oil price, Equity and Credit rates. As mentioned earlier, Dubai is not a major oil producing state and thus the oil price did not have a significant impact on its economic performance. Thus, the small t-value relative to the larger p-value demonstrates that the oil price had no significant importance relative to the other factors. The positive co-efficient of the real-estate rates and credit levels (refer previous graph) demonstrate a positive relationship with the economic performance of Dubai. Therefore, one can see that there is a relationship with regards to credit and real-estate while we can also dismiss oil prices since even though the UAE is a major oil supplier, the state of Dubai is not heavily dependent or influenced by the oil price. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)  Analysis of variance is a technique, whereby the variation in a set of data is partitioned into different components. Each of these components has a specific source of variation and the analysis seeks to assert the magnitude of the contribution of each of these sources to the total variation. ANOVA table: Source of variation Sum of squares Degrees of Freedom Mean Squares F-Ratio Between Groups SSG (group sum of squares) k-1 SSG/k-1= MSG MSG/MSW (between group mean square) Within Groups SSW (Within group sum of squares) h-1 SSW/h-1=MSW MSB/MSE (within group mean square) Error SSE (error sum of squares) (k-1)(h-1) Total SST (Total sum of squares) n-1 Source of variation Sum of squares Degrees of Freedom Mean Squares F-Ratio           Between Groups 171.3 3 57.11 8.12 Within Groups 24.5 2 12.25 1.74 Error 42.17 6 7.03 Total 238 11     Analysis and prevention of further crisis Analysis  As mentioned earlier, the financial crisis was influenced by the key factors; an expansionary monetary policy, flawed financial innovations, and the collapse of trading.   With respect to expansive monetary policy and the consequent housing price boom, governments around the world could have conducted a less expansive monetary policy. This would have removed the illusion of mortgage lending and borrowing appearing riskless and encouraged the increase in price of the property market. If monetary policy had been more restrictive, the asset price boom the construction and housing industries could have been avoided (Schwartz (Winter 2009)).   With regards to the adoption of innovations in investment instruments that were flawed, investors and regulators must determine stringent guidelines to determine pricing and distribution of these assets. Furthermore, they must be thoroughly tested before being adopted by the market (Schwartz (Winter 2009)).   As for the final factor, currently credit markets have accepted the collapse of trading in selected instruments after their weaknesses were revealed. These lessons will prevent these markets from operating the credit markets fully stabilize and address their weaknesses (Schwartz (Winter 2009)).  Prevention Specifically, the Dubai economic model must undergo various structural adjustment programs. Dubai has achieved an impressive degree of diversification and become a major trading and services (May Khamis 2010). However, the global financial crisis has exposed the vulnerabilities associated with Dubai’s highly leveraged property development and put into question the sustainability of those aspects of the development model. Thus, a significant factor should be the marked reduction in leverage (May Khamis 2010). Dubai cannot be blamed entirely for the financial collapse of its economy, since most of the policies that led to the collapse were beyond its control. However, as mentioned above some of the key precautions it could have taken and should do so in the future must include a more robust monetary and fiscal policy, especially concerning the credit markets. Dubai also needs more institutional reforms and guidelines to monitor and avert asset bubbles in its economy.   One proposal to help prevent further crisis was the creation of the Gulf Monetary Union (GMU). Accordingly, the GMU would seek financial stability via certain key protocols as follows, (The 2008–2009 Global Financial Fallout: Shanghai and Dubai as Emerging Financial Powerhouses? 2009) Inflation rates will not be allowed to increase more than 2 percent, based on the weighted average of inflation rates in the GCC. Average short-term interest rates would not be allowed to increase more than 2 percent, based on the average of the lowest three rates. Foreign exchange reserves should be capable of covering at least four months of imports. The annual budget deficit should not be allowed to increase more than 3 percent of gross domestic product. The public debt ratio should not go over and above 60 percent of GDP for the public government and 70 percent of GDP for the central government. With regards to the foreign exchange rate, GCC currencies must be pegged to the US dollar.  Conclusion In conclusion, the Dubai economic model is not severely outdated or inherently flawed but was instead exposed to flaws in the financial system and lacked certain procedures that could have helped it handle the situation better. However, in context, Dubai's performance is not strikingly different from other financial centers around the world, all of which suffered from the financial crisis. However, if other Gulf States such as Kuwait seek to emulate the pre-crisis growth and development of Dubai, serious considerations should be given to the monetary and development policy of the state. Thus, as explained above protocols and guidelines should be set in place and should be maintained regardless of the economic situation. Furthermore, credit risks and borrowing must be firmly yet gently monitored and regulated by the financial authorities. Finally, unlike Dubai, which spent too much energy on one segment of the economy and tied everything else to it, it would be prudent for other states to diversify their economies. Perhaps economies that embrace knowledge based industries, along with the financial sector, will be well placed. However, like Dubai, they would need a firm grasp of economic liberalization. The external and internal liberalization policies of Dubai are the main reason it emerge as a pinnacle of the Gulf region, and there is no doubt that it that attitude that may help it return to that position someday. Works Cited Al-Sayegh, F (Jan., 1998), 'Merchants' Role in a Changing Society: The Case of Dubai, 1900-90', Middle Eastern Studies, Vol. 34, No. 1 , pp. pp. 87-102. May Khamis, ASMHFKAPGS 2010, 'Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries and Challenges Ahead', International Monetary Fund. Melamid, A (Jul., 1989), 'Dubai City', Geographical Review, Vol. 79, No. 3 , pp. pp. 345-347. Schwartz, AJ (Winter 2009), 'Origins of the Financial Market Crisis of 2008', Cato Journal, Vol. 29, No. 1. Senhadj, MKAA 2010, 'Learning from the Past', IMF : FINANCE & DEVELOPMENT, March 2010, Volume 47, Number 1. Sykes, AO, An Introduction to Regression Analysis, viewed 27 April 2010, < HYPERLINK "http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:My_RoByEYroJ:www.law.uchicago.edu/files/files/20.Sykes_.Regression.pdf+Regression+analysis&hl=en&gl=lk&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESiG-d9ZWKCR9QefztmRUPXW2vHJ8xzKCAOStVOLcHHEq5Hbg60f7TROA1oPSJa5-axQ1xiEwhiIMatBgjCPki6qRbyU4" http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:My_RoByEYroJ:www.law.uchicago.edu/files/files/20.Sykes_.Regression.pdf+Regression+analysis&hl=en&gl=lk&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESiG-d9ZWKCR9QefztmRUPXW2vHJ8xzKCAOStVOLcHHEq5Hbg60f7TROA1oPSJa5-axQ1xiEwhiIMatBgjCPki6qRbyU4 >. 'The 2008–2009 Global Financial Fallout: Shanghai and Dubai as Emerging Financial Powerhouses?' 2009, Asian Politics & Policy—Volume 2, Number 1, p. Pages 77–93. Read More