Name Surname Supervisor Subject Date Review of Bloom, Canning and Fink (2011) Life expectancy across the most countries of the world is rising. That means proportion of the ageing population has been steadily increasing. This is also because fertility rates are declining…
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Moreover, health of aging population is also improving significantly and a large proportion of old-age people will live without any health complications. Productivity in any country will have bearings due to age-related changes in working populations. It is pertinent to note that population of age 60 and above was 200 million in 1950 but today, it has increased to 760 million and estimated to be around 2 billion in 2050. Similarly, the numbers of people of age 80 and above were 14 million in 1950 that has raised to 11 million today and are likely to reach, based on the current projections, nearly 400 million by 2050. This is critical since these patterns of aging population were never seen in the past. Authors have attempted to examine the effects of aging population on world economy as a whole. Authors have drawn data from the United Nations and have projected age-wise population between 2005 and 2050. The projections are based on the medium-fertility rate. If the fertility rates are lower than this than the aging population will increase further. The fertility rate estimation between 2005 and 2050 is a matter of uncertainty and will lead to different results pertaining to elderly proportion. Even changes in mortality rate will influence the proportion of aging population significantly. Different continents will have varying estimation of ageing population. Africa will have a least proportion of the people with age 60 and higher while Europe is projected to have the highest proportion of aging population amongst all continents – to the tune of almost 34 percent followed by North America at 28 percent. Declining fertility rates, increasing life expectancy at birth and declining mortality rates in child are the factors behind increased proportion of aging population across most part of the world. Quantitative Methods Employed The authors have employed quantitative empirical methods to study the effect of ageing population on the world economy. They have done population analysis by age group based on historical data from 1950 to 2005 and then projections made about age-group distribution for years beyond 2005 until 2050. With different fertility assumptions, an attempt has been made to estimate proportion of aging population beyond 2005 until 2050. It is believed that the issue will have its social as well as political fallouts too. For example, an aging population will need support in terms of healthcare services and income security for them. In developing countries, this, traditionally, has been taken care by families but as more and more women enter workforce, this is likely to change. Formation of nuclear families, migration towards urban centers and children leaving away from their parents will become a norm even in most of the developing countries posing new challenges for security of the elderly population. Most developed countries have social security plans in place to provide healthcare and income security; however, as the elderly population goes up, it is likely to be a daunting task for most governments. In short, aging population may cause serious consequences on the economy of the nation. Behavioural Changes Authors emphasise that behaviour changes play a pivotal role in meeting the shortfall in labour supply and they can be described as per the following. Rising life expectancy is responded by the society by increasing the number of working years keeping the saving behaviour unchanged. Even if the people do not work for extra years, it is certain that increased life
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