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Uncertainty Avoidance and Country Risk Ratings - Dissertation Example

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Uncertainty Avoidance and Country Risk Ratings.
The purpose of this dissertation is to explore the relationship between country risk ratings, the economic measures associated with the likelihood of sovereign debt default   and Hofstede’s Uncertainty Avoidance score…
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Download file to see previous pages Despite the importance of these country risk ratings, the utility of these measures for predicting market volatility has been called into question (DiGregorio, 2005; Oetzel et al, 2001) while global debt crises have occurred that have been likened to a heart attack for the international financial system (Gokay & Whitman, 2010).  Current literature on country risk ratings indicates a focus on political, financial, and economic factors without inclusion of social or cultural factors (Miroshnik, 2002). Description of the Population and Sample
In selecting the sample size three factors into consideration and the study came up with a sample size which will consist of a total of 49 countries including Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Denmark, Ecuador, El Salvador, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Guatemala, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Iran, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Portugal, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, Uruguay, and Venezuela.  This sample surpasses the minimum required sample size as computed from G*Power, which should reduce the possibility of committing Type II errors when running the analyses.  Data from the samples will be collected from the International Country Risk Guide database, Euro money Country Risk score database, Hofstede Uncertainty Avoidance Index database, and the World Bank databases. Table 4.1 Economic indicators and the previous year country risk ratings.               Years compared   Predictors 2007 ? 2008 2007 ? 2009 2008 ? 2009 2008 ? 2010 2009 ? 2010               Euromoney .998*** .906*** .908***       Intl Country Risk Guide .982*** .959*** .965***       Economic indicators                         Export growth     .132     .090 -.240   Ratio current account to GDP     .878*** .826*** .910***   Growth foreign exchange     .039*** .181*** .695***   Inflation     .892*** .867*** .950***   GDP per capita     .994*** .991*** .994***   Combined indicators     .528*** .445** .732***   **p< .01, ***p< .001, all 2-tailed. Source: International Country Risk Guide database To confirm the applicability of factor analysis a t-test was carried out at 95% confidence level. The table above shows all the identified economic factors that could probably affect a country’s risk ratings. The test results are only significant if the p-value or the significance value of the test is lower than .05.  The t-test statistics (table above) shows that all identified ...Download file to see next pagesRead More
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