Peak Oil: the Most Important Event to Take Place in the 20th Century - Research Paper Example

? Peak Oil- the most important event to take place in the 20th Century Peak oil can be defined as the point in time when oil production globally will get to its maximum rate then after production will slowly go down (Oildecline.com, 2005). It is easy to understand the concept of peak oil however the dramatic effects that go with it are extremely daunting such that comprehending them is a difficult task. The first problem comes in when the main experts on the peak oil subject all concur that peak oil is on the verge of happening; basically quite a number of experts show how the fateful data will happen somewhere between 2004 and 2014 which translates to-now. The second challenges come in because our industrialized societies rely in oil in almost everything. Whether it’s the phone, the computer, our clothes, appliances, furniture and even food we eat most of their production methods require oil (Oildecline.com, 2005). This paper therefore looks into the issue of peak oil being the most important event to have taken place in the 20th century. I will focus mostly on the current trend on demand of oil the world over, arguments against peak oil and other alternative sources of energy. Peak oil is arrived at by observing the production rates particularly of individual oil wells, reserves that are projected as well as the total production rate of an oil well field. So as to completely comprehend physical peak oil, there has to be a consideration of the growing effort meant for production. In many instances, peak oil is confused with depletion of oil which should not be the case as; peak oil translates to mean maximum production point whereas oil depletion means a period of falling supply and reserves (Oildecline.com, 2005). It was King Hubbert who first created add used models that were meant to correctly predict the oil production in the United States in the year 1956. Today his method is known as Hubbert peak theory and the variants used have with reasonable accuracy been able to tell the peak as well as the decline of oil production be it from fields, oil wells, regions or countries (Adams, 2012). There have been Oil petroleum experts who have predicted a negative global economy should there be a post- peak decline in production and increase in oil price. Reason being, people the world over depend on oil especially in industries such as agriculture, transport and also industries. In the year 2008, oil prices were at their highest ever to be recorded as a barrel was going for $145. This forced many governments to seek other alternatives to oil and mostly use of ethanol however this had other consequences that had not been anticipated such as escalation of food prices and especially in the third world countries (Adams, 2012). Peak oil means that there is maximum production of oil and so a decline will follow. Statistics show that the demand for world crude oil grew at almost 1.76 percent every year since the year 1994 all the way 2006 and between 2003 and 2004 there was a high of 3.4 percent. In the year 2007, there was a record of 85.6 million barrels used each day and the world consumption went down by almost 1.8 percent in both 2008 and 2009 as a result of sharp increase in fuel costs (Inman, 2012). According to a research published in the Energy Policy journal, it is predicted that by the year 2015 there would be more demand for oil as compared to the supply not unless people would be restricted by the pressures of the strong recession. Demand for energy is mainly distributed into four main sectors which are residential, transportation, industrial as well as commercial. The largest sector that uses the most oil is that of transportation and the demand continues to increase every day. Reason being, more people the world over are going for personal cars that are powered by internal combustion engines. In the United States the amount of oil used by the transport industry in 2006 was almost 68.9 percent of the total oil (Inman, 2012). Despite the fact that developing countries have the highest demand for oil the world’s biggest petroleum consumer in the United States. For instance, between 1995 and 2005 consumption of petroleum rose from 17,700,000 barrels everyday to approximately 20,700,000 barrels every day. This goes to show that there is too much over-reliance on oil and this is where benefits of peak oil come in. With the increase of oil and supply being low, prices will most definitely hit a record high. Consequently, this will be a good time for people to turn to different means of energy production that will be convenient as well as environment friendly. These alternative energies may not replace fossil fuels judging by the rate, scale and manner in which people the world over use them but they will certainly help alleviate some of the pollution in the world. Cars and trucks are heavily responsible for causing much of the pollution as well as damage emanating from the oil extraction industry with the inclusion of pollution from oil refineries and disastrous oil spills (Brennan & Media, 2012). In addition to this, it seems that the United States over-reliance on oil is partly responsible for the current involvement in the Middle East war. This means that peak oil will greatly assist in solving some of these problems. Oil has been attributed to air and water pollution which means that if there will be peak oil, less oil will be used and thus less pollution will take place in the world. In a world that is facing so much global warming, the lesser pollutants there are the better for creating an environment that is free of pollution. When it comes to transportation, the 21st century has come up with green vehicles otherwise known as environmentally friendly vehicles (Brennan & Media, 2012). These vehicles are friendly to the environment compared to those running on diesel or gasoline. Green vehicles are powered by advanced vehicle technologies as well as alternative fuels. They include; battery electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, compressed air vehicles, natural gas vehicles and many others. These cars not only provide users with sustainable transport they also greatly help lower air pollution, emission of green house gases and help in reducing over-reliance of oil powered vehicles (Brennan & Media, 2012). Other alternative sources of energy will be used as a result of peak oil. For example, solar energy producing 1.5 kilowatt PV system is expected to keep away over 110,000 pounds of carbon dioxide which is the main greenhouse gas for the next 25 years. In addition to this, energy from the solar system will avert the urge of burning approximately 60, 000 pounds of coal. Other forms of alternatives that people can use during peak oil are wind power and hydroelectric and tidal power (Brennan & Media, 2012). There however arguments against peak oil being a great event to have occurred in the 20th century. Those against peak oil state that economic growth will be negatively affected especially since wide use off fossil fuels is known to have a key role in ensure economic growth prosperity right from the industrial revolution times (Inman, 2012). There are those who have the notion that when the time comes that oil production will decrease, modern technological society together with human culture will have to change radically. The impact peak oil will have on the world will wholly depend on the rate at which it has declined as well as the development and adoption of other alternatives which are effective. If the alternatives will not be effective, most of the products that made from oil like solvents, detergents, adhesives, fertilizers and even plastics will not only be scarce but also quite expensive. According to a published report referred to as the Hirsch Report, it summarized by stating that peak oil affects that US as well the rest of the world and presents them with a risk management problem that is unprecedented (Inman, 2012). In conclusion, in my opinion peak oil is the greatest event to have happened in the 20th century as it will help people stop over-relying on oil and as a result seek for other alternative energies that are friendly o the environment. In a time when we are facing global warming, the least attempt to reduce pollution will be highly appreciated and it will go miles in reducing pollution especially of air and water (Brennan & Media, 2012). The fore mentioned statistic have proven that the world and particularly the US and developing countries is using too much oil and therefore peak oil should be seen as a blessing in disguise and not necessarily a bad thing that can make the world come to a halt. References Adams, C. (2012). Straight Dope: What’s the latest on peak oil? WEHOville. Retrieved on 30th November 2012 from http://www.wehoville.com/2012/11/04/straight-dope-whats-the-latest-on-peak-oil/ Brennan, J & Media, D. (2012). Green living: How do alternative energy sources work? Retrieved on 30th November 2012 from http://greenliving.nationalgeographic.com/alternative-energy-sources-work-2698.html Inman, M. (2012). Has the world already passed “peak oil? Retrieved on 30th November 2012 from http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2010/11/101109-peak-oil-iea-world-energy-outlook/ Oildecline.com, (2005). Peak Oil info & Strategies. Retrieved on 30th November 2012 from http://www.oildecline.com/ Read More