Can China Rise Peacefully - Essay Example

1) Can China Rise peacefully? The answer to this question is straightforward and indisputable; China will not rise peacefully. If China was to go on with its remarkable economic performance over the next few years, it is highly likely that China and the United States will engage in an extreme security competition that might ultimately end up in war. A majority of nations that border China such as Vietnam, Russia, South Korea, Singapore, Japan, and India are likely to gang up with the United States to restrict China’s Influence (Banlaoi, p.26). In order to explain why the rise of China will not be peaceful, an international politics theory will be useful in explaining how a rising power might act and how other nations are likely to react to this rise. Reasons why the rise will not be peaceful Trends in international politics have always shown that powerful nations endeavor to attain supremacy in their region, and ensuring that no rival nation dominates another region. The survival of a state is among the most fundamental objective because it cannot achieve any other goals if it is not able to survive. The international system’s basic structure is designed in such a way nations that are concerned about their security are always in competition with each other. Every dominant power aims at maximizing it influence in the world and ultimately to conquer the system (Layne, p.16). The international system is characterized by three key features. One is that the principal actors are nations that operate in anarchy; this means that these nations are not under any authority. The other feature is that most prominent nations have well developed militaries; this means that they have the capacity to fight one another. Lastly, no nation can identify the intentions of other nations with confidence, particularly their intentions in the future. For instance, it is almost impossible to Russia to tell the intentions of Germany in 2030. In as much as some states might have offensive capabilities and harmful intentions, dominant powers tend to be afraid of each other. Thus, nations have realized that the most appropriate way to survive in such a situation is to try as much as possible seek for more power as compared to other rival states. By doing this, a nation is sure that its potential rivals are less likely to attack it. For instance, it is unthinkable for Mexico to attack the United States because it knows that it does not stand a chance against it (Mearscheimer, p.161). In the case of china, it is likely to try to control Asia similar to how the United States has been dominating the western nations. Particularly, China will most probably aim to widen the power gap present between itself and its neighbors such as Russia and Japan. China will seek to increase its influence such that no country in Asia will be in a position to threaten it in any way. Nevertheless, it’s improbable that China will seek to increase its military dominance in an attempt to destroy other Asian states. As an alternative, it is more probable that China seek to dictate acceptable behavior to its neighbors in the same way the US makes it known that it is the boss (Layne, p.150). It is also highly likely that China will aim at driving the US from Asia, similar to how the United States drove the European nations from the western countries. It is also clear that China’s policy goals are a appropriate strategy. China will seek to become superior in terms of military dominance as compared to its neighbors such as Russia and Japan, in the same way the United States desires a weaker Mexico and Canada. No state desires to have more powerful nations on its borders, and thus China will seek to dominate all its neighbors. Currently the United States is the only superpower, but the rapid rise of China is likely to result in conflict if we are to go by history. In the present world, conflict has taken an indirect form whereby rival states do not fight directly. Rather they support the enemies of each other; China is currently supporting the enemies of America such as Sudan, Venezuela, and Iran. Where the US has failed to establish strong ties with states that are considered rogue, China has stepped in and created ties with such nations. This may not be as direct as using military action, but is an effective means of undermining the influence of the US (Mearscheimer, p.62). In addition, considering the Taiwan’s strategic significance in managing East Asia’s Sea lanes, it is unimaginable that Japan and the United states will permit China to control Taiwan. Taiwan is a vital player balancing the anti-China coalition; this will obviously annoy China and stimulate the security rivalry between America and China. 2) How should the United States respond to China's Rise? From historical records, it is apparent how the policy makers in the United States will react to the rise of china. America does not handle competition peer competition well. The US is determined to remain the only superpower in the world, and will go to considerable extents to maintain its position by containing China. It will aim at weakening its influence in Asian countries until they are unable to dominate the Asian region any more. The US is likely to behave in a similar fashion to how it did towards Russia during the cold war. (Teo and Chu, p.6) In addition, China’s neighbors will seek to prevent it from achieving regional supremacy. In reality, there is considerable evidence indicating that nations such as Russia, Japan, and India, and smaller nations such as Vietnam, South Korea, and Singapore are searching for ways to contain China’s influence. Ultimately, they are likely to form a coalition with the US to contain the rise of china, similar to how Japan, Italy, Germany, France, and Britain united with America in controlling the Soviet Union in the Cold war era (Elizabeth, p. 416). Despite these predictions, the United States should respond in a different manner towards the rise of china. The core American values are the promotion of democracy and human rights. America should be principally concerned with sustaining a fruitful economic relationship with China, and restricting china from obstructing diplomatic efforts by America in continents such as Africa and the Middle East (Mearscheimer, p.36). There are a number of options that the US has at its disposal. One is that it can try to promote democracy. However, this policy might compromise crucial interests of America in the Asian region so as to attain secondary objectives. The massive instability that would emerge as a result of a democratic revolution could be unfavorable to the economic symbiosis between America and China. In addition, it is evident that a democratic China may become adversely unfriendly towards America’s advocacy for better governance and transparency in the region. A more accountable and transparent government in china may reinforce the American-Chinese economic relationship and facilitate the establishment of stronger economic ties (Suettinger, 105). Irrespective of which policy is better, there are serious concerns on the effectiveness of each strategy, and particularly how they can be pursued reasonably. The US has an inconsiderable power on the internal politics of China. There are a small number of policy tools that America can effectively utilize to guide china towards democracy or transparency. Excessive meddling with politics in China will be viewed as audacious and might be resisted by the Chinese (Mearscheimer, p.98). The other viable option would be the enhancement of Chinese commitment to international organizations such as the WTO, G8, and UN. By incorporating china into the new world order which has been created by western nations will support responsible growth, and will ultimately lead to transparency and democratization. The other preferable option that America can use is the responsible stakeholder model. This model for managing rising-nations is founded on the American experience after World War II. By applying this model on China, the responsible stakeholder model aims at managing the benevolent rise of China and integrating it into the present system. Managing China using the responsible stakeholder model entails persuading China to promise that it will preserve and uphold the presently US-led order. Nevertheless, this approach is not appropriate for China and is failing due to numerous reasons. From the perspective of America, this model is designed to structurally embed as a status quo nation in the system, because China has substantially benefited from the US. China unreservedly confesses that the US has benefited her with its role in the Southern China Sea by maintaining peace, and providing a favorable condition for commerce and trade to flourish. Nevertheless, America is assuming that this will shape the strategic purposes, goals, and foreign policy of China. On the contrary, China is using the Responsible stakeholder model to promote its agenda and advance its influence and power. Whereas America dedicates money, troops, and ships to maintain order in Asia, China is taking advantage of security that it is getting from the US. Therefore, the responsible stakeholder model seems to be ineffective in this respect (Lee, p. 48). Reference Banlaoi, Rommel. “Southeast Asian perspectives on the rise of China; regional security after 9/11” Parameters, (Summer 2003). Elizabeth, Economy. “China’s rise in Southeast Asia; implications for the United States” Journal of Contemporary China, 14:44 (2005), pp. 409-425. Layne, Christopher, “China’s Challenge to US Hegemony”, Current History, (January 2008), pp. 13-18. Layne, Christopher, “The Waning of U.S. Hegemony-Myth or Reality?” International Security (2009), pp. 147-172. Lee, John, “The Fantasy of Taming China’s Rise”, Foreign Policy Analysis, 3 (May 2010), Sydney: The Centre for Independent Studies, available at http://www.cis.org.au/publications/foreign-policy-analysis/article/1599-the-fantasy-of-taming-chinas-rise Mearsheimer, John. “Why China’s Rise will not be peaceful”. (September 17, 2004) http://mearsheimer.uchicago.edu/pdfs/A0034b.pdf Mearsheimer, John. “The rise of China will not be peaceful at all” The Australian, (2005) Mearscheimer, John J. ‘China’s Unpeaceful Rise’, Current History, 105:90 (2006), pp. 160-162. Suettinger, Robert, “The Rise and Descent of ‘Peaceful Rise’”, China Leadership Monitor, issue 12 (Fall 2004). http://media.hoover.org/sites/default/files/documents/clm12_rs.pdf Teo, Eric and Chu Cheow. “An ancient model for china’s new power; paying tribute to Beijing”, International Herald Tribune. (21 January 2004), p. 6. Read More