Iran's Promise to Discontinue the Production of Nuclear Weapons - Assignment Example

Priority Intelligence Requirements Background The Priority Intelligence Requirement for this report is to answer the question; Will Iran honour its promise to discontinue the production of nuclear weapons or will they go ahead with their plans? Determining the answer to this question is crucial since it will determine how the National Security Staff will approach the issue in the coming days. Although Iran has agreed to abandoning their plans for the acquisition of nuclear weapons, there is still no guarantee that they will honour this promise. The only way to do this is by examining the current state in relation to history in order to get a clear pointer of what is likely to happen in the future. This can only be possible by analysing the following factors:- Another question to consider would be whether the economic sanctions imposed on Tehran will do anything to dissuade the country from advancing on its nuclear plans. It is also critical to determine whether Tehran has the means and motivation to develop larger weapons other than the smaller satellites. The economic sanctions placed on Iran have been meant to dissuade the country from manufacturing weapons of mass destruction (WMD), however, it is important to analyse whether the economic sanctions should be lifted or be left in place. Given that the Iran government was classified as a supporter of international terrorism in 1984, it is critical to investigate whether this is still the same today. Since Iran is crucial to the Middle East stability, it is important to access if the acquiring of WMD or abandoning the project would do anything to restore stability in the region (Clapper 7). Discussion There have been concerns on the best way for the Unites States and Israel to react to Iran’s nuclear activities. Even as the debate rages, the United States has tightened its economic sanctions on Iran and the European Union is now boycotting the country oil. Although negotiations are still ongoing and Iran has agreed to put its nuclear plans on hold, the crisis is not yet over. The promise to put the plans on hold should not be an indication that the Middle East peace is guaranteed (Rennack 5). By looking at the current state, there are several ways that the country’s nuclear program can end. To begin with, diplomacy together with harder economic sanctions could persuade Iran to drop its plan of a nuclear program. Historically, this is not likely to happen since past events have showed that a country that is intent on getting nuclear weapons is not likely to be discouraged from doing so. In essence, punishing a nation through economic impediments does very little in delaying its nuclear program. A case in point in North Korea, which managed to build its nuclear weapons despite numerous sanctions as well as the UN Security Council resolutions. If Tehran feels like its security is dependent on acquiring nuclear weapons, there is less likelihood that embargoes will change their mind. In reality, introducing more sanctions may make them feel even more defenceless, giving the country an even greater reason to rely on the protection of the definitive deterrent (Rennack 10). The other possible outcome is where Iran does not in actuality test a nuclear weapon but creates a breakout capability, the ability to develop and test one in a fast manner. In reality, Iran would not be the first nation to do develop a refined nuclear program without developing an actual bomb. Having such a breakout capability is likely to gratify the political needs of Iran’s leaders by convincing extremists that they can actually make a bomb without being isolated by the international community. The challenge with this is that a breakout capability might not attain the intended results (Rennack 11). The third possible outcome of the crisis is that Iran goes ahead with its current plans and publicly tests a weapon. This is a big threat to the U.S. and Israel. The main reason for Israel opposing and trashing this possibility is to maintain its nuclear monopoly in the region. In 1981, Israel bombed Iraq to prevent their monopoly from being challenged and in 2007 it repeated the same in Syria (Clapper 7). The biggest fear of a nuclear Iran is that the state is seen as innately irrational. This might not necessarily be true since the country is not led by extremist mullahs. All that the Iran leaders want is to survive. There has never been an indication that Iran wants to use the nuclear weapon as an offensive but as a defence. There has never been a full blown war between two states in history. If Iran acquires nuclear weapons, this will act as deterrence to other nuclear powers in the region. Diplomacy between Iran and the major powers should be encouraged. However, the current embargoes should be dropped since they do very little to discourage the country but instead they only hurt the ordinary Iranians (Clapper 8). Conclusion The current crisis between the West and Iran is not about to end any time soon. Like all superpowers, the United States will keep on objecting to plans by Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. On its part, Israel will also continue opposing the program simply because they want to maintain their nuclear monopoly in the region. Although the Iranian regime might be rational, acquiring a nuclear weapon will make them bolder and this will be a perfect shield for Tehran to act aggressively and augment their support for terrorism. There is also a high possibility that Iran will supply arms to terrorists directly (Clapper 8). Although Iran has agreed to put on hold their plans of developing nuclear weapons, it is less likely that they will abide by this promise. The thing that Iran wants to do is to buy more time so that they can explore more options on what they need to do to test develop the weapons without raising much international condemnation. Once the Iranian rulers are convinced that they have found an effective way, they will embark on their nuclear plans with great urgency. Even in the presence of sanctions, Iran will still continue to pursue their nuclear plans and nothing that is done to them will deter them. Iran is most likely to follow the example of North Korea that went ahead to develop a nuclear weapon in the middle of economic sanctions and UN Security Council resolutions. The increases of economic sanctions will most likely make Iran feel vulnerable and this will push them to seek for the only alternative which they feel will protect them. Summary Iran has shown intent to develop nuclear capabilities to augment its security, honour, and regional power. This intent has been rewarded with sanctions by the United States and the EU members. This has led Tehran to announce that they have shelved their plans to pursue diplomacy. Despite this, there are still concerns on whether Iran will honour this promise or if they will go ahead with their plans. In order to get an answer to this concern, it is important to look at similar happening in history and how they were resolved. This is important since it will present an answer as to how the current crisis is likely to be solved. Despite the ongoing economic sanctions, it is less likely that Tehran will be deterred from their goal of developing nuclear weapons. The West and all the other decision makers should not be deceived by the current status since Iran is most likely looking for a way to pursue their goals without attracting much backlash from the international community. The continued economic sanctions might succeed in stalling Tehran plans but they will still look for a cost effective way to accomplish their plans. The economic sanctions will only succeed in hurting the Iranian people but not stopping the country’s plans. For the National Security Staff, there is need for more efforts to ascertain exactly what the Iranian leaders are planning to do next. One of the things to do would be to ascertain whether the country is truly irrational and whether once they acquire the weapons they will use them for their own security or it will embolden them to support terrorism. Works Cited Clapper, James. Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community. Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 2013. 1-30. Rennack, Dianne. Iran: U.S. Economic Sanctions and the Authority to Lift Restrictions. Congressional Research Service, 2014. 1-33. Read More