The elderly of the United Kingdom - Essay Example

? Population Needs Analysis: The Elderly of the United Kingdom Population Needs Analysis: The Elderly of the United Kingdom The elderly population of the United Kingdom will be increasing its share in the total population of the United Kingdom as UK society and the world improves its capabilities in the science of health delivery. This implies changes or modifications in the epidemiological characteristics of the UK. This also implies that the medical profession should be keener in preparing for and addressing illnesses and conditions associated with ageing and with an ageing population. Population Needs Analysis: The Elderly of the United Kingdom Topic Page I. Introduction 4 II. The Ageing Population of the UK 4 III. Epidemiological Transition 10 IV. Conclusion 13 Population Needs Analysis: The Elderly of the United Kingdom I. Introduction I have chosen to focus on the elderly population of the United Kingdom. It is an important population because society is generally improving its ways of addressing health conditions and we can expect that the elderly population group will increase in the United Kingdom as well as everywhere else in the world. This will likely imply that specific illnesses associated with population will increase. There will be implications on what medicines to maintain in one’s inventories and what illnesses or diseases to expect in a population. According to the Equality and Human Rights Group (2008, p. 20), the elderly people have rights “not to be discriminated against” but the right “is not a free-standing right.” According to the human rights group, this means that if no other right in the Human Rights Act is engaged, the right against discrimination “will not come to play”. I assert otherwise. I believe that older people continues to have rights, period. As they move to old age and are less able to defend their rights, people must stand to defend their rights on their behalf. The medical profession has to know the situation of the elderly to place the profession in a better pro-active stance in addressing the health needs of the population. II. The Elderly Population of the United Kingdom Shaw (2004, p. 15) estimated that the United Kingdom has an annual population growth of about 0.31 percent. Based on the 2009 UK Annual Abstract of Statistics, the projected population of the United Kingdom for 2011 is about 62.761 million people. The age structure of United Kingdom and age structure across gender can be described by Table 1 next page. Table 1. 2011 Age Distribution of Residents of the United Kingdom (thousands) Age Group All ages Male Female Below 60 48,520 24,415 24,105 60-84 12,805 5,995 6,810 85 and above 1,436 483 953 Total 62,761 30,893 31,868 Source of Data: UK Office for National Statistics (2009, p. 31) Table 1 indicates that based on the 2009 projections of the UK Annual Abstract of Statistics, the projected elderly population for 2011 in the United Kingdom from 60 to 84 years old is about12.8 million, divided between males and females, at about 5.9 million and 6.8 million respectively. The elderly 85 years old and above is about 1.4 million, divided between 483,000 males and 953,000 females. Table 1 indicates that while females between 60 to 84 years old only slightly exceed males, the female elderly is about two times the number of the male elderly starting at 85 years old. This indicates that the female population of the United Kingdom has a longer life expectancy than the male population. At once, Table 1 informs us that health facilities have to focus more on the males in the 60 to 84 years old group. Table 1 informs us of the higher rate of mortality among men as the female-to-male ratio increases from 1.14 in the 60 to 84 years old age bracket to a high 1.97 in the over 85 years old age bracket. These figures are my own computation based on data available from the UK Annual Abstract of Statistics for 2009. Table 2 pertains to the same data reflected on Table 1. However, Table 2 is in terms of percentages. Based on Table 2, the elderly population from 60 years up is about 22.69% of the total population of the United Kingdom for 2011, implying that roughly one-fourth of the UK population is composed of the elderly 60 years old and up. In the age 60 to 84 years old, 46.82% of the elderly are males while 53.18% are females. However, among 85 years old and higher, around 33.64% are males while about 66.36% are females. Table 2. Percentage Distribution of UK Residents by 2011 Source of Data: Author’s Computation Based on data from the UK Office for National Statistics (2009, p. 31) Table 3. Distribution of the Elderly across United Kingdom, 2011 (thousands) UK Area 60 to 84 years old 85 and above Count (thousands) Percentage Count (thousands) Percentage England 10,657 83.23 1,214 84.54 Wales 699 5.56 78 5.43 Scotland 1,119 8.74 111 7.73 Northern Ireland 329 2.57 33 2.30 Total 12,804 100.10 1,436 100.00 Source: As derived by the Author from the UK Office for National Statistics (2009, p. 32-33) The distribution of the elderly across areas of the United Kingdom in 2011 projected figures as per the report of the 2009 UK Annual Abstract of Statistics are reflected in Table 3. Thus, based on Table 3, the elderly population in the United Kingdom, 60 years old and above, comprise about 14.2 million people. Of this population, 83.23% is distributed in England, 8.74% in Scotland, 5.56% in Wales, and 2.57% in Northern Ireland. Although the elderly population of the United Kingdom appears better than those of the United States because 20.7% of the elderly population of the United States is below the median income versus 13.9% in the United Kingdom, the situation of the elderly in the United Kingdom is far inferior to Sweden where only 2.6% of the elderly is below the median income (Bryan and Raphael 2005, p. 18). Simultaneously, however, “two-thirds of the nation’s wealth now belongs to the one third of the population aged over 50 years” (Alderson 2005, p. 48). Based on Shaw (2004, p. 7), we can expect that the share of the elderly in the UK population will be increasing. As indicated by Figure 1, life expectancy has been increasing in the United Kingdom since 1981. From a life expectancy at birth of only around 70 years old for males and 76.5 years old for females, life expectancy at birth has been increasing and is forecasted to be around 82 years for males and around 86 years old for females by 2041. Figure 1 next page has been consistent with the data reflected in Tables 1 and 2. As indicated by Tables 1 and 2, women have a higher expectation of life at birth (EOLB) or life expectancy compared to men. This means that women tend to have longer lives, implying that the composition of women among the elderly population of the United Kingdom tend to be higher compared to men. This remains true despite the EHEMU (2008, p. 2) assessment that UK life expectancy for people over 65 increased by 1.3 years among women and relatively high 2.4 years among men over the 1995-2005 period. Figure 1 suggests that the origin or source of an increasing composition of the elderly in the population of the United Kingdom can be found in the generally improving expectation of life longevity in the United Kingdom. Figure 1. Expectation of life at birth (EOLB) since 1981 in the United Kingdom Source: Shaw (2004, p. 7) However, there is a serious cause for concern because even as life expectancy improves from 1951 to 2071, Figure 2 indicates that mortality figures are expected to outstrip birth figures beginning around 2031. Earlier, Shaw (2004, p. 15) reported that experts estimated that the UK’s population would peak in 2050 at over 65 million “and then gradually start to fall.” Even as there is an overall expected trend for the whole of the United Kingdom, there are specific expectations. Scotland’s population had been expected to decrease since 2002 (Shaw 2004, p. 14). Experts believe that Wales and Northern Ireland will grow further but will have a peak population in 2030 and from that year, their population would be decreasing (Shaw 2004, p. 15). England had been expected to grow further but at a slow pace up to the 2040 (Shaw 2004, p. 15). The summary figures for mortality and death rates in the United Kingdom are shown in Figure 2. Figure 2 used actual figures for 1951 to 2000 but had used projected figures beginning year 2001. Figure 2. Actual and projected figures on mortality and birth, UK 1951-2071 Source: Shaw (2004, p. 11) Figure 3. Share of 65 years old and above in UK Population, 1950 to 2050 Source: Zaidi (2008, p. 4) Improving life expectancy figures reflected in Figure 1 and decreasing birth rate in Figure 2 translates into an ageing population reflected in Figure 3. In summary, Figure 3 indicates that the age group above 65 years old has been consistently increasing its share in the population of the United Kingdom. The increasing share of the elderly is also reflected in the median age of the UK which is expected to rise from 37.4 year in 2000 to 42.4 years by 2024 (Shaw 2002, p. 13), III. Epidemiological Transition Kurek (2007, p. 35) pointed out that the demographic transition of an increasing composition of the elderly in the population will be associated with an “epidemiological transition”. However, although Kurek made an important statement that the demographic transition would imply an “epidemiological transition”, Kurek (2007) was clear not on the specifics of the “epidemiological transition”. The main concern of Kurek was not to describe the details of “epidemiological transition” but to introduce a method for computing epidemiological rates (2007, p. 43). Data on the morbidity and mortality rates of the elderly population are not immediately available. However, we can assume that the United Kingdom data on the mortality and morbidity rates apply for this population group. Among employees 50 years old and over in the United Kingdom, Flynn (2010, p. 7) pointed out that the top health concerns are muscular pain (1st), backache (2nd), fatigue (3rd), stress (4th), headache (5th), irritability (6th), sleeping problems (7th), vision problems (8th), anxiety (9th), injuries (10th), hearing problems (11th), skin problems (12th), stomach ache (13th), respiratory problems (14th), allergies (15th), and heart disease (15th). Heart disease is only the 146h health concern but it is the health concern that is fatal. Although he did not clarify a definition for “young,” “middle age,” and “older”, Flynn (2010, p. 10) reported that older British employees are “most likely working part-time” (32.4%). Majeed and Alvin (2005, p. 1362) assumed that the number of people aged 65 and over in the United Kingdom will increase by about 53% between 2001 and 2031. They predicted that an increase in the aging population will increase the number of people with chronic diseases, including cardiovascular disease (Majeed and Aylin 2005, p. 1362). In the United Kingdom, according to Majeed and Aylin (2005, p. 1362): The number of people with coronary heart disease will increase by 44% to 3,190,000 by 2031. People with heart failure will increase by 54% to 1,303,000 by 2031. People with atria fibrillation will increase by 46% to 1,093,000 by 2031, during which the number of admissions on the cases will increase by 39% or to 85,000. In Athens, Greece, the European Network for the Safety among Elderly (2011, p. 1) reported that that there is “4-fold variability in the frequency of injury death among the elderly” compared to the rest of a population. The network clarified, however, that the United Kingdom is among five countries in Europe with the lowest rates. Disaggregated figure for the accidental poisoning among the elderly in the United Kingdom is unavailable but accidental poisoning is only slightly below 5% of all types of injuries among the elderly (European Network for the Safety among Elderly 2011, p.1). In 2006, Zaidi anticipated that addressing the health conditions of the elderly in the United Kingdom will be confronted with difficulties given that the “risk of poverty” among the elderly population in the United Kingdom is about 24%, representing an elderly population of about 2,268,000 as of 2003. An ageing population implies that people with certain conditions associated with ageing will increase. For example, the Parkinson’s Disease Society of the United Kingdom has estimated in 2006 that there were 120,000 people with Parkinson’s Disease in the United Kingdom. The figure implies an incidence rate for the UK population as well the UK’s elderly population. Health and social services for people with Parkinson’s Disease will have to keep up. At the same time, the Parkinson’s disease Society of the UK (2006, p. 2) revealed that at least 15% of the people with Parkinson’s disease “have never been seen by a hospital doctor with specialist knowledge of the condition.” The Parkinson’s disease Society of the UK (2006, p. 5) expressed concern that some of the medical staff of a number of UK hospitals are not aware of how the disease can be managed. Most disturbing, the Ad Hoc Group for Potentially Inappropriate Medicines for the elderly (2005, p. 1348) expressed concern that there are medications common in the homes that are inappropriate for use among the elderly and that will expose the latter to serious hazards. This indicates that an ageing population will have an implication even on what type of medicines or medications to maintain in the homes. In addition, there are also implications which are yet not fully assessed as a larger percentage of the population will be more likely found at home and in institutions, rather than in workplaces (Tinker 2003, p. 372). Focusing on ageing population is important because it is not only a trend in the UK but a global trend (Rutherford 2011, p. 6). According to Rutherford, in 1950s, only 8% of the world was 60 years old and over but this has grown to 10% in 2005 and expected to grow to 22% in 2050. IV. Conclusion This study has shown that the elderly will comprise a larger share of the UK population in the years to come. Further, this study has shown that an ageing population will have epidemiological implications. Although specifics are not yet very clear, we have identified some of the diseases that will have increasing importance. This implies that society and the medical sector must be more prepared in handling diseases and conditions associated with ageing. 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