Early Warning Systems and Earthquake Risk - Research Paper Example

assignment is due Earthquake Risk and Early Warning Early warning systems have acquired remarkable advancement in the past two decades. The advanced communication systems of modern days have achieved development in such a way that it can successfully propel information much quicker than seismic waves. If detected earlier, information about an earth quake can be send to people before the earth quake waves travel from its place of origin to other locations. Effective automated communication systems can fire the news of an impending earthquake so that people can protect their life and shut down the different systems that would go out of order if affected by an earth quake. The information systems can give necessary warnings so that power grids, energy systems and nuclear reactors can be switched off to avoid further destruction. Critical equipments, vehicles and systems can be shut down to prevent explosion and destruction. Fast moving vehicles and trains can be brought to a low speed to avoid accidents. Earthquake risk in a particular location or a typical region is presented by various ground motion parameters. The values of different parameters are measured and analyzed. Ground motion parameters like particle velocity, particle acceleration, motion intensity and values of acceleration are assessed for calculating earth quake risk. The values of these parameters are taken using probabilistic analysis. Local geological conditions, location of earthquake sources and various other parameters are taken into account. Considering the ground motion amplitude with respect to the distance from the earthquake source or the centre of earthquake, different probability analysis is performed. Distribution of earthquake source or location of the origin is crucial while calculating earthquake risk. Using these valuable parameters earthquake risk for a particular region is assessed. Operational earthquake forecasting also helps assess risks and forecast possible quakes using different methods. With the help of different seismicity-based methods, several methods are developed to update seismic hazard maps. Different models and seismic based methods are found to be helping in predicting future earthquakes. Probable locations and the expected time are predicted using different parameters. Hazard level warnings are provided for different locations. Region, position and time are analyzed to predict a probable earth quake. Earthquake, the most feared natural calamity was once considered unpredictable as the origin and cause of earthquakes were unknown. Modern earthquake warning systems successfully predict earthquake to a certain extent through thorough study of ground motion parameters and other information related to different locations. It has also been discovered why certain areas are more vulnerable to earth quakes. Earth quake is no longer ignored and considered as a calamity that arrives without any warning. The densely populated urban areas and the expected population explosion in the coming decades make it clear that the world can no longer afford a heavy earth quake. If an earth quake happens in any major city of the world, more than 10 million people would perish within moments. Nations are therefore increasingly concerned about any probable earth quake that would cause a risk to the population. Earth quake warning systems are developed so that people would be intimated of an impending hazard. An Earthquake Early Warning System has been prepared by the United States Geological Survey in order to calculate earth quake risk for the west coast of United States. This warning system provides timely warnings, alerts for a possible earth quake. These warnings are meant to ensure public safety and perform necessary precautionary measures to avoid heavy losses. Effective forecasts and warnings would warn the population about possible attacks and educate them about the do’s and don’ts while encountering an earth quake. Earth warning systems send automatic earth quake warning through internet, television, messages and different social media. Warning systems have developed in such a way that before the earth quake could travel from the place of origin to different locations, warnings are sent by automated systems. The earthquake early warning system is prepared for earth quake prone areas like the western United States. Such systems have been developed for Washington, California and other states where seismic hazards are more probable (Kuyuk and Allen, 2013). National Hazard map gives the highly probable locations and least probable locations considering horizontal ground acceleration and other parameters (Seismological Society of America, 2013). Earthquake warning systems make use of different networks to sense moderate to heavy earth quakes. Warning systems quickly send warnings before the seismic waves touches the expected locations. People take protective action and initiate automatic responses to shut down necessary systems. Critical infrastructure, power systems and fuel systems are shut down for avoiding an accident. Inhabitants of earth quake prone areas are well trained for taking precautions and performing certain actions to escape from death and destruction. Individuals are taught to cover and hold on if they encounter a shake. Upon receiving warnings industries and power systems are closed down and laborers are moved to safe locations. Hospitals, airports and railway stations are given warnings to take appropriate actions. Doctors should avoid complicated procedures and medical activities like operation if an earth quake is expected. Trains should be slowed down and better stopped to escape from derailment. Vehicles should be stopped and elevators should stop working until the warning period passes off. Heavy traffic areas should warn vehicles to avoid rushing in order to avoid accidents during a shake. Bridges should clear off traffic and flyovers should be kept free if an earth quake is expected. Airports warn aircrafts to avoid take offs and landings if they receive a warning. Early warnings would thus help people, industries and other necessary systems to take necessary defensive actions. Geophysicists in the US have come up with new technologies that would predict the location and magnitude of a possible earth quake. Detecting compression waves in the origin of an earth quake helps predict the nature of an earth quake. These detection techniques can be used in other parts of the world so that more effective warning systems can be created. Advanced early warning systems can predict an earth quake and give quick warnings. S-waves are the most destructive aspect of earth quake as it causes the crucial damage. Waves occurring on the surface and S-waves cause heavy destruction. The fast moving P-waves, however, is known to cause less damage and shake. By properly detecting and analyzing the P-waves, the succeeding destructive S-waves can be predicted and timely warnings can be sent. Quick detection of early waves and timely warnings would help people take protective actions and escape from a major disaster. Earthquake early warning systems are developed in all nook and corners of the world as it would provide people with the crucial seconds that would help them make necessary precautions to escape from causality, death and damage. In United States, particularly California new seismic stations are planned on places that are currently not covered by the existing network (Kuyuk and Allen, 2013). According to recent researches the present technology needs to be upgraded so that more effective earth quake distance may be invented and more locations may be covered. Placement of seismic stations at different locations would give early earnings and quick information sending. Certain areas are deprived of seismic stations and detection facilities. For example, the northern part of San Francisco Bay area and North Los Angeles. Installing seismic stations in such areas would make sure that earth quakes are detected earlier and information is quickly sent no matter where the earthquake originates. Earthquake early warning set up effectively identifies the initiation of an earth quake. They are also prepared to quickly send warning alerts before seismic waves reach and ground-shaking happens. The P-wave and energy and force of P-wave are detectable for seismic stations. P-wave is notoriously followed by the dangerous shear and surface waves. Shear and surface waves are powerful enough to cause extensive damage and destruction. Surface waves arrive with shaking and cause destruction. The warning system generates a warning time based on several parameters. Epicenter needs to be quickly detected and the expected region of earthquake coverage must be calculated. The proximity of the seismic station to the origin of the earth quake is important. Location of the earthquake epicenter, distance calculation and analysis of other parameters must be accurate and quick. Distant locations would be benefitted more through the warning as those locations will get more time for preparation. Seismic stations generate alert and send quickly through different options. Advanced researches about earthquake risk and early warning techniques have defined earthquake risks for different locations in various parts of the world. There are certain highly probable locations and blind zones that would be frequently and severely affected by earth quakes. Blind zones would encounter S-waves before any warning symbol could reach them. It is therefore advised to keep these blind zones less populated and free of crucial infrastructure. Moreover, houses and other buildings in those areas can be constructed in such a way that they can withstand earth quakes. Between the areas of Los Angeles and Bay Area there is a big area of blind zone. However there are not enough seismic stations there. Absence of enough number of blind zones would make them deprive of earthquake warnings. More seismic stations are recommended in those areas. If more seismic stations are available there earth quakes would be detected early and warnings would be sent quickly. Earth quake risk of all areas of the earth is researched and measures area being taken for setting up seismic stations in those locations. Seismic stations in all nook and corners of the earth would help people get early earth quake warnings and protect themselves. Works Cited H. S. Kuyuk, R. M. Allen. “Optimal Seismic Network Density for Earthquake Early Warning: A Case Study from California”. Seismological Research Letters, 2013; 84 (6). Seismological Society of America. "Improving earthquake early warning systems for California and Taiwan." ScienceDaily, 30 Oct. 2013. Web. 5 Dec. 2013. Read More